Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64. Crude is stuck in no mans land - seems to be sideways until a break below 57.35 - seems to WANT some bullish news..
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-12 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is hovering around $60 but faces mixed signals. In the short term, bullish trends are emerging, yet a 12-month downtrend looms. Fundamentals aren't strongly bullish, with China's SPR imports inflating demand but OPEC+ holding off on action due to soft fundamentals. The US diesel and mogas stocks remain a surprise positive. Geopolitical tensions, particularly with Venezuela, could impact prices, but a break below $57.35 could lead to a deeper drop into the 40s. Keep your eyes peeled for pivotal shifts!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-3/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$62.21
$0.27
WTI:
$58.46
$0.21
Spread:
$3.75
(Brent premium of $3.75)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-11,646
Weekly Change:
19,383
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-3
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.02
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.92
MA(20): $59.02
Current Price is 58.02, 9 day MA 58.92, 20 day MA 59.02
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3916
Signal: -0.3654
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.89
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.89 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 11,215
Avg (20d): 232,011
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 27.06
%D: 32.74
Stochastic %K: 27.06, %D: 32.74. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 12.55
+DI: 13.89
-DI: 20.54
ADX: 12.55 (+DI: 13.89, -DI: 20.54). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -72.94
Williams %R: -72.94 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.52
Middle: 59.02
Lower: 57.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.52, Middle: 59.02, Lower: 57.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13853.0 | 13815.0 | 13513.0 | 12943.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6589.0 | 5981.0 | 7290.0 | 6456.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4009.0 | 3613.0 | 4235.0 | 3728.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16860.0 | 16876.0 | 16910.0 | 16294.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2580.0 | 2368.0 | 3055.0 | 2727.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 425691.0 | 427503.0 | 423375.0 | 428950.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684734.0 | 1687647.0 | 1629112.0 | 1617861.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 220819.0 | 214422.0 | 214603.0 | 222428.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 116788.0 | 114286.0 | 118100.0 | 118348.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.21, change $+0.27. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.46, change $+0.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.75 (Brent premium of $3.75). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$62.21
0.27
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$58.46
0.21
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.75
Brent premium of $3.75
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently facing a tightening supply-demand balance, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. Non-DoC liquids production is expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d, but the demand for DoC crude is revised down, indicating potential challenges for OPEC's production strategy. As the global economy remains stable, the interplay between demand growth and supply constraints will be crucial for market dynamics.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025, +1.4% from 2024
- OECD oil demand: +0.1 mb/d in 2025
- Non-OECD oil demand: +1.2 mb/d in 2025
- China's oil demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's oil demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d for DoC crude in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Demand for DoC crude is revised down, indicating a tighter balance in the market
- Implications for OPEC: The reduced demand for DoC crude suggests OPEC may need to adjust production levels to maintain market stability
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains strong with a growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025, despite a slight month-on-month decline in imports.
- India's growth story is robust, with a forecast of 6.5% in 2025, driven by increasing imports and product exports.
- The Americas show resilience with stable demand, particularly in the US, where crude exports have reached an eight-month high.
- Europe faces challenges with fluctuating imports and product availability, impacting overall demand.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, maintaining a steady growth trajectory.
- Risks and opportunities: Potential risks include geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, while opportunities lie in increasing demand from emerging markets.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in OPEC production policies, shifts in global economic growth, and developments in key consuming countries like China and India.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The downward revision of DoC crude demand highlights potential oversupply risks.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and impact market stability.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from India presents a significant growth opportunity for OPEC producers.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels in response to the revised demand forecasts to maintain market equilibrium.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-11-10
Managed Money
-11,646
Change: -19,383
-0.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
271,318
Change: -5,898
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-343,202
Change: +18,440
-17.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,913,442
Change: -10,885
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-11-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,913,442 contracts (-10,885)
Managed Money Net Position: -11,646 contracts (-0.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -19,383 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 271,318 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -343,202 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
72
Last Updated:
2025-12-12 00:04:39
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil Pressured by Oversupply Prospects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Weakens on Oversupply Concerns Barchart
- Crude Futures Edge Up Ahead of U.S. Inventory Data — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Extends Downturn on Ample Supply Trading Economics
- Oil Oversupply to Show Up As Waterborne Stocks Land — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (4 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Oil Prices Fall; Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks, Fed Meeting in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls 1% With Russia-Ukraine in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Soybean Price Support in 2026 Rests on Biofuels Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steadies With Focus on Geopolitical Risks, Fed Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.38
Daily:
-0.41 (-0.42%)
Weekly:
-0.61 (-0.62%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.55%)
Weekly:
0.0 (0.05%)
SP500
6901.0
Daily:
14.32 (0.21%)
Weekly:
30.6 (0.45%)
VIX
14.85
Daily:
-0.92 (-5.83%)
Weekly:
-0.56 (-3.63%)
GOLD
4299.3
Daily:
102.9 (2.45%)
Weekly:
86.4 (2.05%)
COPPER
5.47
Daily:
0.2 (3.71%)
Weekly:
0.09 (1.65%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.02
Closest Support:
$56.35
2.88% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.73
1.22% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
Support
0.236
$58.73
Resistance
0.382
$60.2
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.02
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-12 00:04:41
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | $58.13 | $56.48 | $59.79 |
| 2025-12-13 | $58.24 | $56.58 | $59.9 |
| 2025-12-14 | $58.26 | $56.6 | $59.92 |
| 2025-12-15 | $58.3 | $56.64 | $59.96 |
| 2025-12-16 | $58.31 | $56.65 | $59.97 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2025-12-12), reaching $58.13.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-12 and 2025-12-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
In October, the $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) to an average of $65.20/b indicates a bearish trend. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing supply-demand dynamics, with a slight narrowing that could signal potential volatility. The market's bearish sentiment, supported by hedge fund positioning, suggests that traders should be cautious of further declines.
Key support levels to watch are around $60.00 for WTI and $63.00 for Brent, while resistance might form near $65.00. Traders should monitor the ongoing backwardation in futures, which indicates a potential for short-term opportunities amidst longer-term bearish pressures.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The recent decrease in crude prices, with WTI averaging $60.07/b, may impact production planning and revenue forecasts. The bearish market sentiment, highlighted by the -11,646 contracts net position from managed money, suggests producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from price fluctuations.
With OECD commercial inventories rising to 2,845 mb, producers should evaluate their production levels to avoid oversupply. The balance between supply and demand remains delicate, particularly as the demand for DoC crude is revised down. This necessitates a careful approach to production adjustments and inventory management.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
The decline in crude prices can lead to potential input cost fluctuations for consumers, particularly with WTI at $60.07/b. However, the bearish sentiment in the market may present procurement opportunities for refineries and industrial users, especially if prices dip further.
Consumers should remain vigilant about supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories. The increase in US product exports to 7 mb/d is a positive sign for supply, but the ongoing adjustments in crude imports, particularly from China and Japan, may impact procurement strategies.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing bearish sentiment driven by oversupply concerns and a weakening market structure across major benchmarks. The global oil demand growth forecast remains steady at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, but the balance of supply and demand is tightening, particularly with revisions in DoC crude demand.
Analysts should closely monitor the CFTC positioning data, which indicates a shift towards bearish sentiment among managed money traders. This positioning could signal potential market reversals if extreme levels are reached. Overall, the combination of technical indicators, inventory levels, and geopolitical factors suggests a cautious outlook for the near term.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific investment decisions.