Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64. Crude is stuck in no mans land - seems to be sideways until a break below 57.35 - seems to WANT some bullish news..
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-13 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is hovering around $60, showing short-term bullish signs but a longer-term downward trend. Fundamentals remain mixed; China’s SPR imports inflate demand while OPEC+ holds steady amid soft fundamentals. Recent market sentiment is cautious, with concerns about oversupply and a strong dollar weighing on prices. Key support at $57.35 is critical—falling below could push prices into the 40s. Watch for geopolitical developments, as any significant event could tip the scales.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-3/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$61.28
$0.93
WTI:
$57.6
$0.86
Spread:
$3.68
(Brent premium of $3.68)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-12,671
Weekly Change:
1,025
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-3
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.44
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.66
MA(20): $58.93
Current Price is 57.44, 9 day MA 58.66, 20 day MA 58.93
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.4979
Signal: -0.3972
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.29
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.29 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 286,808
Avg (20d): 247,764
Ratio: 1.16
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 12.32
%D: 23.08
Stochastic %K: 12.32, %D: 23.08. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.02
+DI: 12.32
-DI: 21.19
ADX: 14.02 (+DI: 12.32, -DI: 21.19). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -87.68
Williams %R: -87.68 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.64
Middle: 58.93
Lower: 57.22
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.64, Middle: 58.93, Lower: 57.22
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13853.0 | 13815.0 | 13513.0 | 12943.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6589.0 | 5981.0 | 7290.0 | 6456.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4009.0 | 3613.0 | 4235.0 | 3728.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16860.0 | 16876.0 | 16910.0 | 16294.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2580.0 | 2368.0 | 3055.0 | 2727.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 425691.0 | 427503.0 | 423375.0 | 428950.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684734.0 | 1687647.0 | 1629112.0 | 1617861.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 220819.0 | 214422.0 | 214603.0 | 222428.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 116788.0 | 114286.0 | 118100.0 | 118348.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $61.28, change $-0.93. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $57.6, change $-0.86. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.68 (Brent premium of $3.68). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$61.28
0.93
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$57.6
0.86
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.68
Brent premium of $3.68
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently experiencing a delicate balance, with global demand projected to grow steadily while supply from non-DoC countries continues to rise. The demand for OPEC crude is anticipated to increase, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected. As such, OPEC faces critical decisions regarding production levels to maintain market stability.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World Oil Demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025, +1.4% growth from 2024
- OECD Demand: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2025
- Non-OECD Demand: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2025
- China's Demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's Demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current Supply-Demand Gap: 42.4 mb/d for 2025
- Regions Driving the Deficit: Demand for DoC crude is revised down, indicating a tighter market for OPEC producers.
- Implications for OPEC: The need to adjust production levels to align with the revised demand forecasts for DoC crude.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's Demand Trajectory: Expected to grow by 4.8% in 2025, maintaining its status as a key consumer.
- India's Growth Story: Projected growth of 6.5% in 2025, indicating strong demand potential.
- Americas' Resilience: The US continues to show robust demand, with exports reaching an eight-month high.
- Europe's Challenges: Facing stagnant growth, with imports fluctuating due to geopolitical factors.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 Outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks and Opportunities: Geopolitical tensions and economic shifts could impact demand and supply dynamics.
- Market-Moving Factors: Watch for changes in US production levels and OPEC's response to shifting demand forecasts.
Key Takeaways
- Surprising Data Point: The downward revision of DoC crude demand by 0.1 mb/d for 2025.
- Biggest Risk Factor: Potential geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chains.
- Opportunity Area: Increased demand from India and China presents growth opportunities for OPEC.
- Strategic Recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels in response to the evolving demand landscape.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-11-18
Managed Money
-12,671
Change: -1,025
-0.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
276,037
Change: +4,719
14.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-356,338
Change: -13,136
-19.1% of OI
Open Interest
1,868,023
Change: -45,419
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-11-18
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,868,023 contracts (-45,419)
Managed Money Net Position: -12,671 contracts (-0.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -1,025 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 276,037 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -356,338 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
68
Last Updated:
2025-12-13 00:04:38
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil posts weekly loss on oversupply concerns Reuters
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Pressured by Oversupply Prospects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Weakens on Oversupply Concerns Barchart
- Crude Futures Edge Up Ahead of U.S. Inventory Data — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Extends Downturn on Ample Supply Trading Economics
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (5 articles)
- Oil Rises on US Seizure of Venezuelan Tanker Trading Economics
- Oil Extends Gains as U.S. Seizes Oil Tanker Near Venezuela — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Recover as US Seizes a Tanker Off the Coast of Venezuela Barchart
- Oil Prices Rise After US Seizes Tanker Off Coast of Venezuela Trading Economics
- Oil settles higher after US seizes tanker off Venezuela's coast Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.39
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.7 (-0.7%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.05 (1.28%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.53%)
SP500
6827.41
Daily:
-73.59 (-1.07%)
Weekly:
-19.1 (-0.28%)
VIX
15.74
Daily:
0.89 (5.99%)
Weekly:
-0.92 (-5.52%)
GOLD
4300.1
Daily:
14.6 (0.34%)
Weekly:
112.9 (2.7%)
COPPER
5.28
Daily:
-0.14 (-2.64%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.51%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.44
Closest Support:
$56.35
1.9% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.73
2.25% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
Support
0.236
$58.73
Resistance
0.382
$60.2
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$57.44
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-13 00:04:40
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | $57.53 | $55.85 | $59.2 |
| 2025-12-14 | $57.53 | $55.85 | $59.21 |
| 2025-12-15 | $57.61 | $55.93 | $59.29 |
| 2025-12-16 | $57.67 | $56.0 | $59.35 |
| 2025-12-17 | $57.68 | $56.0 | $59.35 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-12-13), reaching $57.53.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-13 and 2025-12-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment with the Brent-WTI spread at $3.68, reflecting ongoing supply-demand discrepancies. The support levels are critical at $60.00 for WTI and $63.00 for Brent, while resistance levels are around $65.00. Traders should monitor the backwardation in forward curves as it suggests potential short-term opportunities amidst the overall bearish outlook. The managed money positioning indicates a strengthening bearish trend, with a net position of -12,671 contracts, suggesting further downward pressure on prices could be imminent.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The recent drop in crude prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b, necessitates a reassessment of production planning and hedging strategies. Inventory levels, particularly the rise in OECD commercial stocks, indicate a supply surplus, which could pressure prices further. Producers should consider adjusting output to align with the bearish market sentiment and monitor geopolitical risks that may affect production stability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With the current WTI price at $60.07/b and Brent at 63.95/b, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs. The supply reliability risks arising from geopolitical tensions and inventory levels should prompt a review of procurement strategies. As refining margins improve, particularly in the USGC, consumers may find opportunities to optimize costs while being cautious of the overall bearish sentiment in the crude market.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently shaped by a bearish sentiment fueled by oversupply concerns and increasing inventories. Key drivers include stable global oil demand growth, projected at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, against rising non-DoC liquids production. The fundamental balance is leaning towards oversupply, with managed money positioning suggesting a continuation of this trend. Analysts should keep a close watch on geopolitical developments and refining margins as potential indicators for market shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.