Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64. Crude is stuck in no mans land - seems to be sideways until a break below 57.35 - seems to WANT some bullish news..
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-14 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is testing the $60 mark, buoyed by a recent bullish cycle in the past five sessions. However, a year-long downward trend looms, with fundamentals remaining neutral amidst China’s strategic SPR imports and OPEC+ opting for a pause. Diesel and mogas stocks provide a bullish surprise, but geopolitical tensions and a potential U.S. attack on Venezuela could shift sentiments. Watch for a critical break below $57.35, which could plunge prices into the 40s. The market is in a wait-and-see mode, craving bullish news.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-3/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$61.12
$0.16
WTI:
$57.44
$0.16
Spread:
$3.68
(Brent premium of $3.68)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-12,671
Weekly Change:
1,025
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-3
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.44
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.66
MA(20): $58.93
Current Price is 57.44, 9 day MA 58.66, 20 day MA 58.93
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.4979
Signal: -0.3972
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.29
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.29 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 188,382
Avg (20d): 242,842
Ratio: 0.78
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 12.32
%D: 23.08
Stochastic %K: 12.32, %D: 23.08. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.02
+DI: 12.32
-DI: 21.19
ADX: 14.02 (+DI: 12.32, -DI: 21.19). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -87.68
Williams %R: -87.68 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.64
Middle: 58.93
Lower: 57.22
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.64, Middle: 58.93, Lower: 57.22
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13853.0 | 13815.0 | 13513.0 | 12943.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6589.0 | 5981.0 | 7290.0 | 6456.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4009.0 | 3613.0 | 4235.0 | 3728.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16860.0 | 16876.0 | 16910.0 | 16294.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2580.0 | 2368.0 | 3055.0 | 2727.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 425691.0 | 427503.0 | 423375.0 | 428950.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684734.0 | 1687647.0 | 1629112.0 | 1617861.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 220819.0 | 214422.0 | 214603.0 | 222428.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 116788.0 | 114286.0 | 118100.0 | 118348.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $61.12, change $-0.16. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $57.44, change $-0.16. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.68 (Brent premium of $3.68). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$61.12
0.16
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$57.44
0.16
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.68
Brent premium of $3.68
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently facing a tightening supply-demand balance as global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. Non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, are driving this demand growth, while OECD demand remains stagnant. The current production levels from OPEC and non-OPEC countries indicate a potential supply deficit, influencing OPEC's production strategies moving forward.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025 (+1.4 mb/d from 2024)
- OECD demand: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2025
- Non-OECD demand: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2025
- China's demand forecast: 4.8% growth in 2025
- India's demand forecast: 6.5% growth in 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Non-OECD countries, primarily China and India
- Implications for OPEC: The need to adjust production levels to address the anticipated supply deficit, particularly in the face of rising demand from key markets.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.8% for 2025, indicating a strong recovery in consumption.
- India's growth story continues, with oil demand expected to rise by 6.5% in 2025, positioning it as a critical player in the global oil market.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand forecasts supporting ongoing production levels.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand growth, necessitating careful monitoring of economic conditions and energy policies.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, maintaining momentum from previous years.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential economic slowdowns in major economies that could impact demand.
- Opportunities lie in the increasing demand from emerging markets, particularly in Asia, which could drive higher prices and production adjustments.
- Market-moving factors to watch include OPEC's production decisions and global economic indicators that could influence demand forecasts.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The significant growth forecast for India's oil demand at 6.5% in 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: Potential economic slowdowns in major economies affecting oil demand.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the anticipated demand growth from key markets.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-11-18
Managed Money
-12,671
Change: -1,025
-0.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
276,037
Change: +4,719
14.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-356,338
Change: -13,136
-19.1% of OI
Open Interest
1,868,023
Change: -45,419
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-11-18
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,868,023 contracts (-45,419)
Managed Money Net Position: -12,671 contracts (-0.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -1,025 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 276,037 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -356,338 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
54
Last Updated:
2025-12-14 00:04:32
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil posts weekly loss on oversupply concerns Reuters
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Pressured by Oversupply Prospects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Weakens on Oversupply Concerns Barchart
- Crude Futures Edge Up Ahead of U.S. Inventory Data — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (5 articles)
- Oil Rises on US Seizure of Venezuelan Tanker Trading Economics
- Oil Extends Gains as U.S. Seizes Oil Tanker Near Venezuela — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Recover as US Seizes a Tanker Off the Coast of Venezuela Barchart
- Oil Prices Rise After US Seizes Tanker Off Coast of Venezuela Trading Economics
- Oil settles higher after US seizes tanker off Venezuela's coast Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.39
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.7 (-0.7%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.05 (1.28%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.53%)
SP500
6827.41
Daily:
-73.59 (-1.07%)
Weekly:
-19.1 (-0.28%)
VIX
15.74
Daily:
0.89 (5.99%)
Weekly:
-0.92 (-5.52%)
GOLD
4328.3
Daily:
42.8 (1.0%)
Weekly:
141.1 (3.37%)
COPPER
5.36
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.25%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.1%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.44
Closest Support:
$56.35
1.9% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.73
2.25% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
Support
0.236
$58.73
Resistance
0.382
$60.2
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$57.44
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-14 00:04:35
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | $57.53 | $55.85 | $59.2 |
| 2025-12-14 | $57.53 | $55.85 | $59.21 |
| 2025-12-15 | $57.61 | $55.93 | $59.28 |
| 2025-12-16 | $57.67 | $56.0 | $59.35 |
| 2025-12-17 | $57.68 | $56.0 | $59.35 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-12-13), reaching $57.53.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-13 and 2025-12-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent drop in crude oil prices, with the $5.19 decline in the OPEC Reference Basket to $65.20/b, indicates a bearish market sentiment. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread suggests potential short-term trading opportunities as the market adjusts to oversupply concerns and geopolitical tensions. Traders should monitor key resistance levels, particularly around Fibonacci retracement levels that may form at recent highs. The ongoing bearish positioning of managed money traders, with a net position of -12,671 contracts, suggests that volatility may persist, presenting both opportunities and risks in the near term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the current supply-demand balance, as global oil demand growth is forecasted to remain stable at 1.3 mb/d for 2025. The decrease in crude oil production from OPEC countries, down by 73 tb/d in October, alongside rising non-DoC liquids production, could impact pricing strategies. With OECD commercial inventories increasing by 6.0 mb, the pressure on prices may persist. Producers are advised to review their hedging strategies in light of bearish market sentiment and consider adjusting production plans to align with anticipated demand fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, as crude prices are currently under pressure with WTI at $60.07/b and Brent at $63.95/b. The reliability of supply may be affected by geopolitical factors and inventory levels, with OECD crude inventories 1,331 mb indicating a tighter market. Companies should consider procurement strategies that account for potential price volatility and explore hedging options to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating crude oil prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by oversupply concerns and a weakening market structure across major benchmarks. Key driving factors include stable global economic growth forecasts, with a projected 3.0% growth rate, and a slight increase in global oil demand. However, the balance of supply and demand remains precarious, particularly with OPEC's reduced production and rising non-OECD output. Analysts should focus on the implications of these trends for future price movements and market dynamics, as well as the potential for shifts in sentiment should geopolitical tensions escalate or economic forecasts change.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.