Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64. Crude is stuck in no mans land - seems to be sideways until a break below 57.35 - seems to WANT some bullish news..
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-15 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil prices are hovering near $60, showing a bullish short-term trend over the last five sessions. However, a longer-term view reveals a downward trajectory, with fundamentals remaining neutral, partly inflated by China's ongoing SPR imports. OPEC+ has opted for a pause, leaving the market uncertain. Key support is at $57.35—if breached, we could see a drop into the $40s. Geopolitical tensions abound, but significant price movement seems unlikely unless major headlines emerge, making Crude feel like it's in no man's land.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-3/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$61.12
$0.16
WTI:
$57.44
$0.16
Spread:
$3.68
(Brent premium of $3.68)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-12,671
Weekly Change:
1,025
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-3
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.75
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.56
MA(20): $58.82
Current Price is 57.75, 9 day MA 58.56, 20 day MA 58.82
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.5245
Signal: -0.4227
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.4
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.4 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,340
Avg (20d): 231,375
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 21.2
%D: 16.81
Stochastic %K: 21.2, %D: 16.81. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.9
+DI: 12.06
-DI: 20.73
ADX: 14.9 (+DI: 12.06, -DI: 20.73). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -78.8
Williams %R: -78.8 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.51
Middle: 58.82
Lower: 57.12
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.51, Middle: 58.82, Lower: 57.12
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13853.0 | 13815.0 | 13513.0 | 12943.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6589.0 | 5981.0 | 7290.0 | 6456.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4009.0 | 3613.0 | 4235.0 | 3728.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16860.0 | 16876.0 | 16910.0 | 16294.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2580.0 | 2368.0 | 3055.0 | 2727.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 425691.0 | 427503.0 | 423375.0 | 428950.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684734.0 | 1687647.0 | 1629112.0 | 1617861.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 220819.0 | 214422.0 | 214603.0 | 222428.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 116788.0 | 114286.0 | 118100.0 | 118348.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $61.12, change $-0.16. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $57.44, change $-0.16. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.68 (Brent premium of $3.68). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$61.12
0.16
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$57.44
0.16
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.68
Brent premium of $3.68
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by a modest demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d for 2025. Non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, are expected to drive this demand, while OPEC faces a slight downward revision in crude requirements. The balance of supply and demand indicates a tightening market, prompting OPEC to consider strategic production adjustments.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025
- OECD demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's oil demand forecast: 4.8% growth for 2025
- India's oil demand forecast: 6.5% growth for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily OECD countries
- Implications for OPEC: The slight reduction in demand for DoC crude suggests a need for careful monitoring and potential production adjustments to align with market conditions.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.8% for 2025, indicating strong consumption patterns.
- India's growth story is compelling, with demand expected to rise by 6.5% in 2025, reflecting increasing energy needs.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable production and export levels, particularly from the US.
- Europe faces challenges, with stagnant demand growth and reliance on imports, impacting overall market dynamics.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, indicating a continued upward trend.
- Risks and opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact demand; however, growth in emerging markets presents opportunities for OPEC.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in production levels from non-OECD countries and shifts in refining margins will be critical.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The steady growth forecast for India's oil demand at 6.5% for 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: The potential for economic slowdowns in major economies could dampen demand.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia, presents a significant opportunity for OPEC.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the evolving demand landscape and maintain market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-11-18
Managed Money
-12,671
Change: -1,025
-0.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
276,037
Change: +4,719
14.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-356,338
Change: -13,136
-19.1% of OI
Open Interest
1,868,023
Change: -45,419
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-11-18
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,868,023 contracts (-45,419)
Managed Money Net Position: -12,671 contracts (-0.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -1,025 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 276,037 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -356,338 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
38
Last Updated:
2025-12-15 00:04:24
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil posts weekly loss on oversupply concerns Reuters
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.38
Daily:
0.03 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-0.71 (-0.71%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.05 (1.28%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.53%)
SP500
6827.41
Daily:
-73.59 (-1.07%)
Weekly:
-19.1 (-0.28%)
VIX
15.74
Daily:
0.89 (5.99%)
Weekly:
-0.92 (-5.52%)
GOLD
4359.0
Daily:
58.9 (1.37%)
Weekly:
152.3 (3.62%)
COPPER
5.39
Daily:
0.11 (2.08%)
Weekly:
0.15 (2.92%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.75
Closest Support:
$56.35
2.42% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.73
1.7% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
Support
0.236
$58.73
Resistance
0.382
$60.2
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$57.44
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-15 00:04:27
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | $57.53 | $55.85 | $59.2 |
| 2025-12-14 | $57.53 | $55.85 | $59.21 |
| 2025-12-15 | $57.61 | $55.93 | $59.29 |
| 2025-12-16 | $57.67 | $56.0 | $59.35 |
| 2025-12-17 | $57.68 | $56.0 | $59.35 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-12-13), reaching $57.53.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-13 and 2025-12-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is underscored by a $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value, indicating potential downward pressure on prices. The Brent-WTI spread of $3.88 suggests ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent due to geopolitical factors and transportation costs. Traders should be cautious of volatility as the market reflects a bearish positioning from managed money, with a net position of -12,671 contracts. Short-term opportunities may arise from any fluctuations in the support levels around current prices, while resistance could be observed near the $65 mark.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of inventory levels, with OECD commercial stocks rising by 6.0 mb m-o-m, which may signal a need for cautious production planning. The bearish market sentiment, reflected in the drop in crude prices, suggests that hedging strategies could be vital to mitigate financial exposure. Additionally, the forecasted growth in non-OECD demand by 1.2 mb/d in 2025 provides a potential buffer against the prevailing supply risks and market fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should remain vigilant regarding potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices experiencing downward trends. The recent bearish sentiment could translate to lower procurement costs, but supply reliability risks persist due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories. The increase in US product exports, now averaging 7 mb/d, indicates a potential source for stable supply, but consumers should also consider hedging strategies to protect against sudden price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market landscape presents a complex picture with bearish signals dominating due to declining prices across major benchmarks. Key driving factors include a balance of supply and demand that favors a slight increase in global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, alongside rising OECD inventories. The geopolitical uncertainties and a bearish positioning from managed money traders suggest potential for price volatility, warranting close monitoring for any shifts in sentiment or fundamentals that could alter the outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.