Everything in the Crude market has been pointing down - economy, demand, tariffs - take the pick on the negative headspace news article of the day. The main thesis that oil analysts have been talking about is oversupply as OPEC+ has resumed production of barrels (despite falling short on actually producing the barrels). The key question is whether demand will pick up or not? This is critical because the demand side is held up due to China pulling in over 1 mmbpd to fill their ever growing SPR. This skew means that on balance - world demand is too light for the supply being produced. I maintain that we have near term weakness in demand and price but long term (horizon is maybe late 2026), we will begin a structural increase in price as non-OPEC barrels will need to pave the way for growth (and those areas need 80+ to increase supply). The news of Russia-Ukraine Peace drops WTI below the critical 57.35 level and we close out the day in the mid 50s. This points to 52 and possibly down to the 40s.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-17 00:06
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil markets are under pressure, driven by oversupply concerns as OPEC+ ramps up production, albeit short of targets. Demand remains weak, particularly with China stockpiling over 1 million bpd for its SPR, creating an imbalance. Recent geopolitical tensions and peace prospects in Ukraine have pushed WTI prices down, closing in the mid-$50s and potentially heading towards the $40s. Analysts suggest near-term price weakness, but a structural recovery may emerge by late 2026 as non-OPEC supply needs increase.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$60.56
$0.56
WTI:
$56.82
$0.62
Spread:
$3.74
(Brent premium of $3.74)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-37,010
Weekly Change:
24,339
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$55.9
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.12
MA(20): $58.57
Current Price is 55.9, 9 day MA 58.12, 20 day MA 58.57
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.7443
Signal: -0.4989
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 33.82
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 33.82 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 33,645
Avg (20d): 231,024
Ratio: 0.15
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 13.21
%D: 11.92
Stochastic %K: 13.21, %D: 11.92. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 17.53
+DI: 10.56
-DI: 27.44
ADX: 17.53 (+DI: 10.56, -DI: 27.44). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -86.79
Williams %R: -86.79 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT LOWER
Upper: 60.73
Middle: 58.57
Lower: 56.41
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout lower. Upper: 60.73, Middle: 58.57, Lower: 56.41
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13853.0 | 13815.0 | 13513.0 | 12943.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6589.0 | 5981.0 | 7290.0 | 6456.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4009.0 | 3613.0 | 4235.0 | 3728.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16860.0 | 16876.0 | 16910.0 | 16294.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2580.0 | 2368.0 | 3055.0 | 2727.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 425691.0 | 427503.0 | 423375.0 | 428950.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684734.0 | 1687647.0 | 1629112.0 | 1617861.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 220819.0 | 214422.0 | 214603.0 | 222428.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 116788.0 | 114286.0 | 118100.0 | 118348.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $60.56, change $-0.56. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $56.82, change $-0.62. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.74 (Brent premium of $3.74). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$60.56
0.56
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$56.82
0.62
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.74
Brent premium of $3.74
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment with global demand projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025. OPEC's crude production has seen a slight decline, impacting the balance between supply and demand. As geopolitical factors and economic growth forecasts remain stable, the market is poised for cautious optimism.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand forecast: 4.8% growth for 2025
- India's demand forecast: 6.5% growth for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current supply-demand gap: 42.4 mb/d
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily from the DoC crude demand
- Implications for OPEC: A careful evaluation of production levels is necessary to address the evolving gap and maintain market stability.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains strong, with a forecasted growth of 4.8% for 2025.
- India's growth story is robust, projected at 6.5% for 2025, indicating rising consumption patterns.
- The Americas show resilience in demand, with stable growth contributing to overall market dynamics.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand growth, requiring strategic adjustments to maintain balance.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and fluctuating economic conditions that could impact demand.
- Opportunities lie in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, where demand growth is anticipated to outpace other regions.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in OPEC production decisions and global economic performance.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The consistent growth forecast for India's oil demand at 6.5% for 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: Potential geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains.
- Opportunity area: Increased investment in refining capacity in emerging markets.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with demand forecasts and mitigate supply-demand imbalances.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-11-25
Managed Money
-37,010
Change: -24,339
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
273,875
Change: -2,162
14.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-339,063
Change: +17,275
-17.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,890,503
Change: 22,480
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-11-25
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,890,503 contracts (+22,480)
Managed Money Net Position: -37,010 contracts (-2.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -24,339 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 273,875 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -339,063 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
45
Last Updated:
2025-12-17 00:06:03
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (9 articles)
- TotalEnergies Inks Deal To Supply Green Power To Google Data Centers In Malaysia dpa-AFX
- Oil settles near five-year low amid ample supply, Russia-Ukraine progress Reuters
- Oil Futures Fall Further on Oversupply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sugar Prices Pressured as India Boosts Sugar Production and Crude Oil Declines Barchart
- Oil Futures Extend Losses On Oversupply Worries — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sugar Prices Decline on Higher Indian Production and Weakness in Crude Barchart
- Oil Futures Focused on Russia-Ukraine, Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Inches Higher But Ukraine Talks, Oversupply Concerns Cap Gains — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices fall as supply outlook offsets disruptions in Venezuelan flows Reuters
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.38
Daily:
0.23 (0.23%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-0.42%)
US_10Y
4.15
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.36%)
SP500
6800.26
Daily:
-16.25 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
-86.42 (-1.25%)
VIX
16.48
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.12%)
Weekly:
-0.45 (-2.66%)
GOLD
4360.6
Daily:
53.9 (1.25%)
Weekly:
164.2 (3.91%)
COPPER
5.41
Daily:
0.07 (1.33%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.54%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$55.9
Closest Support:
$55.2
1.25% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$57.85
3.49% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$55.2
Support
0.236
$57.85
Resistance
0.382
$59.49
0.5
$60.81
0.618
$62.13
0.786
$64.02
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.47
1.618
$73.35
2.0
$77.64
2.618
$84.57
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$55.9
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-17 00:06:06
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.09%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | $55.95 | $54.27 | $57.63 |
| 2025-12-18 | $55.96 | $54.28 | $57.64 |
| 2025-12-19 | $56.03 | $54.36 | $57.71 |
| 2025-12-20 | $56.16 | $54.48 | $57.84 |
| 2025-12-21 | $56.21 | $54.53 | $57.89 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-12-17), reaching $55.95.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-17 and 2025-12-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is underscored by a significant drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value to $65.20/b and a decline in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI prices. The support levels may be tested near the recent lows, with $60.07/b for WTI and $63.95/b for Brent. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.88/b, indicating a convergence in price dynamics that could reflect changing supply/demand fundamentals. The risk of further downside exists given the bearish positioning of managed money traders, who hold a net position of -37,010 contracts. Traders should monitor for short-term opportunities, especially around key technical levels, as volatility is anticipated in the coming weeks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market conditions suggest a need for strategic hedging as the crude oil prices have shown a consistent downward trend, with a decrease of $5.19/b in the OPEC Reference Basket. Producers should consider adjusting production plans in light of the supply-demand balance, which is under pressure from rising non-DoC production, particularly from the US, Brazil, and Canada. Additionally, the increase in OECD commercial inventories by 6.0 mb indicates a potential oversupply that may impact pricing. The bearish market sentiment could influence operational decisions moving forward, emphasizing the importance of monitoring inventory levels and adjusting output accordingly.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude oil prices trending downwards, consumers should brace for input cost fluctuations. The recent $60.07/b for WTI and $63.95/b for Brent may offer opportunities for procurement at lower rates. However, the bearish sentiment surrounding demand, particularly in China, raises concerns about supply reliability and the potential for price volatility. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories could pose risks to stable supply chains. Consumers are advised to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price spikes due to unexpected supply disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market presents a complex interplay of bearish and balanced factors. The decline in prices, coupled with a bearish sentiment from managed money positions, indicates a potential shift in market dynamics. Key drivers include stable global economic growth forecasts and modest demand growth projections for both OECD and non-OECD regions. The strategic focus should be on the implications of rising non-DoC production and the impact of geopolitical factors on supply chains. Analysts should prepare for potential outlook shifts as market conditions evolve, particularly in response to economic indicators and inventory levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.