What a difference a week makes: last week - demand is too soft, China is importing a million barrels a day that it does not need at the moment (they are filling their SPR), economic indicators are pointing down. Then the US ups the tension on Venezuela while pursuing tankers that according to the US are moving oil that is under sanction through the dark fleet. Combine that with rhetoric from the Trump administration that Venezuela needs to give back the US oil they stole (that is a much deeper discussion for another day - as it is Venezuelan Oil and at one point US companies like Exxon and Chevron operated there and then they were kicked out - so it is nuanced from different perspectives). This news and lack of a peace deal in Ukraine/Russia, WTI traded back to the key support point of 57.35 which is the most critical support holding crude up from dropping to the 40s. This week, I am watching 57.35 as the bull/bear line, and 53.87 as the next support if that falls, with 61.64 as the resistance.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-23 00:07
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil markets have seen a rollercoaster ride recently, shifting from concerns over weak demand and China's strategic oil reserve fill to increased tensions involving Venezuela and Ukraine. As WTI holds near the critical support level of $57.35, eyes are on potential resistance at $61.64 and further support at $53.87. The narrative emphasizes geopolitical risks influencing prices, reminding traders that the market is anything but random. Keep an eye on these pivotal levels as volatility continues!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-3/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$60.47
$0.65
WTI:
$56.66
$0.51
Spread:
$3.81
(Brent premium of $3.81)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
6,878
Weekly Change:
41,646
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-3
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.91
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $56.92
MA(20): $58.0
Current Price is 57.91, 9 day MA 56.92, 20 day MA 58.0
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.7903
Signal: -0.7224
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 48.63
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 48.63 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 7,683
Avg (20d): 219,590
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 53.08
%D: 34.9
Stochastic %K: 53.08, %D: 34.9. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.93
+DI: 14.73
-DI: 21.83
ADX: 21.93 (+DI: 14.73, -DI: 21.83). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -46.92
Williams %R: -46.92 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.51
Middle: 58.0
Lower: 55.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.51, Middle: 58.0, Lower: 55.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13843.0 | 13853.0 | 13631.0 | 13001.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6525.0 | 6589.0 | 5984.0 | 6406.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4664.0 | 4009.0 | 3099.0 | 4458.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16988.0 | 16860.0 | 16659.0 | 16362.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1861.0 | 2580.0 | 2885.0 | 1947.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 424417.0 | 425691.0 | 421950.0 | 427644.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687122.0 | 1684734.0 | 1628917.0 | 1613007.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 225627.0 | 220819.0 | 219689.0 | 224957.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 118500.0 | 116788.0 | 121335.0 | 117702.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $60.47, change $+0.65. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $56.66, change $+0.51. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.81 (Brent premium of $3.81). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$60.47
0.65
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$56.66
0.51
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.81
Brent premium of $3.81
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape with global demand projected to grow steadily. OPEC's crude production has seen a slight decline, while non-OPEC supply continues to rise, creating a nuanced balance of supply and demand. The outlook for 2025 and 2026 suggests moderate growth, but geopolitical and economic factors remain critical to watch.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand in 2025: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand growth: 4.8% in 2025
- India's demand growth: 6.5% in 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current supply-demand gap: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily from OPEC countries
- Implications for OPEC production decisions: A need for strategic adjustments to align with demand forecasts
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.8% in 2025.
- India's growth story is strong, projected at 6.5% in 2025, indicating increasing consumption.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand patterns despite global fluctuations.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant growth, necessitating careful monitoring of energy policies.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook suggests steady demand growth of +1.3 mb/d in 2025 and +1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns that could impact demand.
- Opportunities lie in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, where consumption is expected to rise significantly.
- Market-moving factors to watch include OPEC's production decisions and global economic indicators.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: Non-OECD demand growth forecast remains strong at +1.2 mb/d.
- Biggest risk factor: Potential geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains.
- Opportunity area: Increased focus on Asian markets, particularly China and India.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to better align with demand forecasts.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-09
Managed Money
6,878
Change: +41,646
0.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
252,183
Change: -21,069
13.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-330,680
Change: +3,832
-17.7% of OI
Open Interest
1,867,966
Change: -46,701
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,867,966 contracts (-46,701)
Managed Money Net Position: 6,878 contracts (0.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +41,646 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 252,183 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -330,680 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.8
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
28
Last Updated:
2025-12-23 00:06:21
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Higher on Venezuelan and Ukraine-Russia Risks Barchart
- Oil settles higher on risk of disruptions to Venezuela, Russia supply Reuters
- Oil Gains Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions Trading Economics
- Crude Oil Prices Settle Higher on Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Risks and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.06
Daily:
-0.54 (-0.55%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-0.09%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
0.02 (0.43%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.48%)
SP500
6878.49
Daily:
43.99 (0.64%)
Weekly:
78.23 (1.15%)
VIX
14.08
Daily:
-0.83 (-5.57%)
Weekly:
-2.4 (-14.56%)
GOLD
4515.2
Daily:
153.8 (3.53%)
Weekly:
210.7 (4.89%)
COPPER
5.51
Daily:
0.07 (1.2%)
Weekly:
0.22 (4.12%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.91
Closest Support:
$57.44
0.81% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.96
1.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.44
Support
0.382
$58.96
Resistance
0.5
$60.19
0.618
$61.42
0.786
$63.17
1.0
$65.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$68.23
1.618
$71.84
2.0
$75.82
2.618
$82.26
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$57.9
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-23 00:06:24
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.04%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | $57.93 | $56.13 | $59.72 |
| 2025-12-24 | $57.94 | $56.15 | $59.74 |
| 2025-12-25 | $57.88 | $56.09 | $59.67 |
| 2025-12-26 | $57.72 | $55.92 | $59.51 |
| 2025-12-27 | $57.64 | $55.85 | $59.44 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-12-23), reaching $57.93.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-23 and 2025-12-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent drop in crude oil prices indicates potential volatility in the short term. The $65.20/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket and the $63.95/b for ICE Brent may suggest support levels around these figures. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread, while narrowing, reflects ongoing divergence in supply/demand dynamics which could present short-term trading opportunities. Additionally, the bearish positioning of hedge funds could signal potential price reversals if sentiment shifts.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The declining inventory levels and $60.07/b average for NYMEX WTI could impact production planning and hedging strategies. With global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, producers should consider adjusting output to align with market conditions. The improved refining margins suggest a favorable environment for product sales, while the $4.2 mb/d export peak indicates strong international demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
The fluctuations in $60.47 for Brent and $56.66 for WTI indicate potential input cost fluctuations that consumers should prepare for. The geopolitical risks surrounding supply chains, particularly from Venezuela and Russia, could pose supply reliability risks. As crude imports decline and product exports rise, consumers should evaluate procurement strategies to mitigate costs and ensure stable supply.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market snapshot reflects a bearish sentiment in crude oil prices, driven by declining benchmarks and managed money positioning. The fundamental balance remains tight with a forecasted demand growth of 1.3 mb/d, yet the bearish sentiment from hedge funds suggests caution. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and OPEC's production decisions, as these could shift the market outlook significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.