What a difference a week makes: last week - demand is too soft, China is importing a million barrels a day that it does not need at the moment (they are filling their SPR), economic indicators are pointing down. Then the US ups the tension on Venezuela while pursuing tankers that according to the US are moving oil that is under sanction through the dark fleet. Combine that with rhetoric from the Trump administration that Venezuela needs to give back the US oil they stole (that is a much deeper discussion for another day - as it is Venezuelan Oil and at one point US companies like Exxon and Chevron operated there and then they were kicked out - so it is nuanced from different perspectives). This news and lack of a peace deal in Ukraine/Russia, WTI traded back to the key support point of 57.35 which is the most critical support holding crude up from dropping to the 40s. This week, I am watching 57.35 as the bull/bear line, and 53.87 as the next support if that falls, with 61.64 as the resistance.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-24 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil has experienced a rollercoaster week, shifting from concerns over soft demand—especially from China—to rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with Venezuela and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine. Currently, WTI is hovering around the critical support level of $57.35, with $53.87 as the next line of defense if it falters. On the upside, $61.64 serves as resistance. Recent U.S. data and supply risks have contributed to a five-day rally, but volatility remains high as traders navigate a complex landscape. Stay tuned!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$62.07
$1.6
WTI:
$58.01
$1.49
Spread:
$4.06
(Brent premium of $4.06)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
74
Weekly Change:
6,804
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.44
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $56.93
MA(20): $57.99
Current Price is 58.44, 9 day MA 56.93, 20 day MA 57.99
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.6365
Signal: -0.7039
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.41
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.41 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 11,859
Avg (20d): 218,971
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 62.68
%D: 49.34
Stochastic %K: 62.68, %D: 49.34. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.89
+DI: 17.31
-DI: 20.94
ADX: 20.89 (+DI: 17.31, -DI: 20.94). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -37.32
Williams %R: -37.32 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 60.47
Middle: 57.99
Lower: 55.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 60.47, Middle: 57.99, Lower: 55.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13843.0 | 13853.0 | 13631.0 | 13001.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6525.0 | 6589.0 | 5984.0 | 6406.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4664.0 | 4009.0 | 3099.0 | 4458.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16988.0 | 16860.0 | 16659.0 | 16362.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1861.0 | 2580.0 | 2885.0 | 1947.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 424417.0 | 425691.0 | 421950.0 | 427644.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687122.0 | 1684734.0 | 1628917.0 | 1613007.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 225627.0 | 220819.0 | 219689.0 | 224957.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 118500.0 | 116788.0 | 121335.0 | 117702.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.07, change $+1.6. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $58.01, change $+1.49. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.06 (Brent premium of $4.06). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$62.07
1.6
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$58.01
1.49
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.06
Brent premium of $4.06
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a period of fluctuating prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down by $5.19/b from the previous month. Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with a notable increase in demand from non-OECD countries. However, a supply-demand gap of 42.4 mb/d for DoC crude in 2025 indicates potential challenges for OPEC's production strategies moving forward.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand growth: 4.8% for 2025
- India's demand growth: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily from the DoC countries
- Implications for OPEC: The significant gap suggests OPEC may need to adjust production levels to stabilize the market.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with forecasts showing continued growth at 4.8% for 2025.
- India's growth story is strong, with demand expected to rise by 6.5% in 2025, indicating a vital market for OPEC.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand patterns despite global fluctuations.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand growth, necessitating strategic adjustments in supply.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, maintaining a steady growth trajectory.
- Risks: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns could impact demand forecasts.
- Opportunities: Increased demand from India and China presents a significant opportunity for OPEC to enhance its market share.
- Market-moving factors: Watch for changes in refining margins and crude oil prices which could influence production decisions.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The significant demand growth forecast for India at 6.5% for 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and market stability.
- Opportunity area: Expanding market presence in India and China due to their robust demand growth.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to address the supply-demand gap effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-16
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: 48,472
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,916,438 contracts (+48,472)
Managed Money Net Position: 74 contracts (0.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -6,804 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 247,515 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -320,087 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
28
Last Updated:
2025-12-24 00:04:52
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.87
Daily:
-0.42 (-0.43%)
Weekly:
-0.5 (-0.51%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.43%)
SP500
6909.79
Daily:
31.3 (0.46%)
Weekly:
188.36 (2.8%)
VIX
14.0
Daily:
-0.08 (-0.57%)
Weekly:
-3.62 (-20.54%)
GOLD
4524.4
Daily:
79.8 (1.8%)
Weekly:
176.9 (4.07%)
COPPER
5.58
Daily:
0.15 (2.69%)
Weekly:
0.22 (4.1%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.44
Closest Support:
$58.14
0.51% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.12
1.16% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.93
0.382
$58.14
Support
0.5
$59.12
Resistance
0.618
$60.1
0.786
$61.49
1.0
$63.26
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.51
1.618
$68.38
2.0
$71.54
2.618
$76.66
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.45
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-24 00:04:54
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.03%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-24 | $58.47 | $56.91 | $60.03 |
| 2025-12-25 | $58.43 | $56.87 | $59.99 |
| 2025-12-26 | $58.26 | $56.7 | $59.81 |
| 2025-12-27 | $58.13 | $56.58 | $59.69 |
| 2025-12-28 | $58.1 | $56.54 | $59.66 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-12-24), reaching $58.47.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-24 and 2025-12-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent drop in crude oil prices, with the $5.19 decline in the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) to an average of $65.20/b, signals potential bearish market sentiment. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread indicates a narrowing gap, reflecting changing supply dynamics. Traders should consider the implications of the Fibonacci support levels around the recent lows for potential entry points. With hedge funds maintaining a bearish stance, volatility may increase, presenting both opportunities and risks in the short term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decrease in crude oil production by DoC countries and the slight increase in non-DoC liquids production suggest a tightening supply landscape, which could influence pricing strategies. Producers should focus on hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, especially given the current inventory levels which are below the five-year average. The market sentiment remains bullish despite recent price declines, indicating potential for future price recovery.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude imports falling and product exports rising, consumers may face supply reliability risks amid geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. The recent price fluctuations in WTI and Brent could lead to increased input cost fluctuations. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies, considering potential hedging to lock in favorable prices while monitoring inventory levels for refined products.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a mix of bearish sentiment due to price declines and bullish indicators from ongoing demand forecasts. The balance of supply and demand is tightening, particularly in non-DoC countries, which could lead to upward pressure on prices in the medium term. Analysts should pay close attention to the ML price predictions and CFTC positioning data, as these factors will play a significant role in market direction. Overall, the outlook remains cautious but with potential for shifts depending on geopolitical developments and economic indicators.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.