What a difference a week makes: last week - demand is too soft, China is importing a million barrels a day that it does not need at the moment (they are filling their SPR), economic indicators are pointing down. Then the US ups the tension on Venezuela while pursuing tankers that according to the US are moving oil that is under sanction through the dark fleet. Combine that with rhetoric from the Trump administration that Venezuela needs to give back the US oil they stole (that is a much deeper discussion for another day - as it is Venezuelan Oil and at one point US companies like Exxon and Chevron operated there and then they were kicked out - so it is nuanced from different perspectives). This news and lack of a peace deal in Ukraine/Russia, WTI traded back to the key support point of 57.35 which is the most critical support holding crude up from dropping to the 40s. This week, I am watching 57.35 as the bull/bear line, and 53.87 as the next support if that falls, with 61.64 as the resistance.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-25 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil markets have seen a noticeable shift as geopolitical tensions rise, particularly with the U.S. intensifying scrutiny on Venezuelan oil shipments. Last week, concerns about soft demand were overshadowed by disruptions in oil tanker movements, providing some support for prices. As WTI hovers around the critical support level of $57.35, traders are watching for potential breaks either way, with resistance at $61.64. Overall, the market remains volatile, influenced by economic indicators and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$62.38
$0.31
WTI:
$58.38
$0.37
Spread:
$4.0
(Brent premium of $4.00)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
74
Weekly Change:
6,804
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.35
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $57.0
MA(20): $58.0
Current Price is 58.35, 9 day MA 57.0, 20 day MA 58.0
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.5258
Signal: -0.6691
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 50.94
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 50.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 183,633
Avg (20d): 220,019
Ratio: 0.83
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 61.05
%D: 59.18
Stochastic %K: 61.05, %D: 59.18. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.99
+DI: 17.28
-DI: 20.03
ADX: 19.99 (+DI: 17.28, -DI: 20.03). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -38.95
Williams %R: -38.95 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 60.49
Middle: 58.0
Lower: 55.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 60.49, Middle: 58.0, Lower: 55.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13843.0 | 13853.0 | 13631.0 | 13001.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6525.0 | 6589.0 | 5984.0 | 6406.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4664.0 | 4009.0 | 3099.0 | 4458.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16988.0 | 16860.0 | 16659.0 | 16362.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1861.0 | 2580.0 | 2885.0 | 1947.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 424417.0 | 425691.0 | 421950.0 | 427644.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687122.0 | 1684734.0 | 1628917.0 | 1613007.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 225627.0 | 220819.0 | 219689.0 | 224957.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 118500.0 | 116788.0 | 121335.0 | 117702.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.38, change $+0.31. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $58.38, change $+0.37. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.0 (Brent premium of $4.00). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$62.38
0.31
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$58.38
0.37
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.0
Brent premium of $4.00
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently facing a tightening supply-demand balance, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. The demand for crude oil from OPEC countries is expected to reach 42.4 mb/d in 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year. As economic growth stabilizes, particularly in emerging markets, OPEC's production decisions will be crucial in navigating this evolving landscape.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025
- OECD oil demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD oil demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's oil demand growth: 4.8% in 2025
- India's oil demand growth: 6.5% in 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current supply-demand gap: 42.4 mb/d
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily driven by demand in non-OECD countries, particularly China and India
- Implications for OPEC: OPEC may need to adjust production levels to align with the rising demand, particularly from emerging markets.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory: Expected to grow by 4.8% in 2025, reflecting a robust recovery in consumption.
- India's growth story: Anticipated growth of 6.5% in 2025, positioning India as a key player in global oil demand.
- Americas' resilience: The US continues to show strong export capabilities, with crude exports reaching an eight-month high of 4.2 mb/d.
- Europe's challenges: OECD Europe is facing fluctuating crude imports, which may impact overall demand stability.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with a stable economic growth forecast of 3.1%.
- Risks and opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and market volatility could impact supply chains, while emerging markets present growth opportunities.
- Market-moving factors to watch: OPEC's production decisions and global economic indicators will be critical in shaping the market landscape.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The demand for DoC crude is revised down to 42.4 mb/d, indicating a more cautious outlook.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and impact global oil prices.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from India and China presents a significant growth opportunity for OPEC.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to better align with the rising demand from non-OECD countries.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-16
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: 48,472
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,916,438 contracts (+48,472)
Managed Money Net Position: 74 contracts (0.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -6,804 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 247,515 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -320,087 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
35
Last Updated:
2025-12-25 00:04:37
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil edges up on strong US economic growth, supply risks Reuters
- Oil Gains on Venezuela Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles higher on risk of disruptions to Venezuela, Russia supply Reuters
- CNOOC Commences Production At Xijiang Oilfields 24 Block Project In Pearl River Mouth Basin dpa-AFX
Infrastructure (3 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.98
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.45 (-0.46%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.49%)
SP500
6932.05
Daily:
22.26 (0.32%)
Weekly:
157.29 (2.32%)
VIX
13.47
Daily:
-0.53 (-3.79%)
Weekly:
-3.4 (-20.15%)
GOLD
4480.6
Daily:
-2.2 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
141.1 (3.25%)
COPPER
5.5
Daily:
0.02 (0.41%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.46%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.35
Closest Support:
$58.01
0.58% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.95
1.03% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.85
0.382
$58.01
Support
0.5
$58.95
Resistance
0.618
$59.89
0.786
$61.22
1.0
$62.92
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.08
1.618
$67.83
2.0
$70.86
2.618
$75.77
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.35
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-25 00:04:39
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.07%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-25 | $58.31 | $56.75 | $59.86 |
| 2025-12-26 | $58.13 | $56.58 | $59.68 |
| 2025-12-27 | $58.02 | $56.46 | $59.57 |
| 2025-12-28 | $57.99 | $56.43 | $59.54 |
| 2025-12-29 | $57.99 | $56.43 | $59.54 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-12-25), reaching $58.31.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-25 and 2025-12-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent decline in crude oil prices suggests a potential for further volatility in the short term. The Brent and WTI benchmarks have experienced month-on-month drops of 3.63 and 3.46 respectively, indicating a weakening market structure. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to 3.88, reflecting diverging supply/demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets. Traders should watch for potential support levels around the 60 mark for WTI and 63 for Brent, with geopolitical tensions and economic indicators influencing price direction. The bearish positioning of hedge funds suggests caution, but potential short-term opportunities may arise from unexpected supply disruptions or shifts in economic sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current sentiment in the crude oil market necessitates a reassessment of production planning and hedging strategies. With OECD commercial inventories rising by 6.0 mb, producers should be cautious of potential oversupply scenarios impacting prices. The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight decrease in demand for DoC crude, which may require adjustments in output levels. Additionally, the impact of geopolitical factors on supply stability should be integrated into operational strategies to mitigate risks associated with production and pricing volatility.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs due to the recent volatility in WTI and Brent prices. With the current market sentiment leaning towards uncertainty, procurement strategies should include considerations for supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory levels. The recent increase in crude imports by countries like India and Japan may provide opportunities for competitive pricing, but consumers must remain vigilant regarding hedging strategies to protect against sudden price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market presents a complex picture with both bearish and bullish factors at play. Key drivers include the stable global economic growth, projected at 3.0% for 2025, juxtaposed with a decline in OPEC crude production. The bearish sentiment from managed money positions indicates a cautious outlook, while the improvement in refining margins across regions suggests potential resilience in demand. Analysts should monitor the convergence of these factors, as shifts in geopolitical stability or economic indicators could lead to significant outlook adjustments in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.