What a difference a week makes: last week - demand is too soft, China is importing a million barrels a day that it does not need at the moment (they are filling their SPR), economic indicators are pointing down. Then the US ups the tension on Venezuela while pursuing tankers that according to the US are moving oil that is under sanction through the dark fleet. Combine that with rhetoric from the Trump administration that Venezuela needs to give back the US oil they stole (that is a much deeper discussion for another day - as it is Venezuelan Oil and at one point US companies like Exxon and Chevron operated there and then they were kicked out - so it is nuanced from different perspectives). This news and lack of a peace deal in Ukraine/Russia, WTI traded back to the key support point of 57.35 which is the most critical support holding crude up from dropping to the 40s. This week, I am watching 57.35 as the bull/bear line, and 53.87 as the next support if that falls, with 61.64 as the resistance.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-26 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil markets have seen a notable shift recently. Last week, concerns about weak demand and China's strategic oil stockpiling dampened sentiment. However, rising geopolitical tensions, especially regarding Venezuela and ongoing conflicts, have bolstered prices, keeping WTI near critical support at $57.35. This week, eyes are on this level as a pivotal point, with resistance at $61.64. The market's volatility highlights the interplay of demand, geopolitical risk, and technical levels, making it essential to stay alert for potential price movements.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$62.24
$0.14
WTI:
$58.35
$0.03
Spread:
$3.89
(Brent premium of $3.89)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
74
Weekly Change:
6,804
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.44
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $57.11
MA(20): $57.99
Current Price is 58.44, 9 day MA 57.11, 20 day MA 57.99
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.4222
Signal: -0.6197
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.46
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.46 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,770
Avg (20d): 208,894
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 65.04
%D: 62.56
Stochastic %K: 65.04, %D: 62.56. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.09
+DI: 17.02
-DI: 19.73
ADX: 19.09 (+DI: 17.02, -DI: 19.73). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -34.96
Williams %R: -34.96 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 60.47
Middle: 57.99
Lower: 55.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 60.47, Middle: 57.99, Lower: 55.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13843.0 | 13853.0 | 13631.0 | 13001.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6525.0 | 6589.0 | 5984.0 | 6406.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4664.0 | 4009.0 | 3099.0 | 4458.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16988.0 | 16860.0 | 16659.0 | 16362.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1861.0 | 2580.0 | 2885.0 | 1947.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 424417.0 | 425691.0 | 421950.0 | 427644.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687122.0 | 1684734.0 | 1628917.0 | 1613007.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 225627.0 | 220819.0 | 219689.0 | 224957.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 118500.0 | 116788.0 | 121335.0 | 117702.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.24, change $-0.14. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $58.35, change $-0.03. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.89 (Brent premium of $3.89). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$62.24
0.14
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$58.35
0.03
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.89
Brent premium of $3.89
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a delicate balance, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while non-DoC liquids production is expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d. The demand for DoC crude is revised down to 42.4 mb/d, indicating a tightening supply situation. As OPEC assesses these dynamics, production decisions will be critical to maintaining market stability.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand growth forecast: 4.8% for 2025
- India's demand growth forecast: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d
- Regions driving the deficit: Non-DoC production growth is slower than demand increase, particularly in OECD regions.
- Implications for OPEC: A tighter supply-demand balance may necessitate OPEC to adjust production levels to avoid oversupply and stabilize prices.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025, indicating strong consumption patterns.
- India's growth story is promising, with demand expected to rise by 6.5% in 2025, driven by economic expansion and energy needs.
- The Americas show resilience, with US crude exports reaching an eight-month high, reflecting strong market dynamics.
- Europe faces challenges, with fluctuating demand and reliance on imports, necessitating strategic adjustments.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, maintaining a steady upward trend.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions that could impact market stability.
- Opportunities lie in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, where demand growth is expected to outpace other regions.
- Market-moving factors to watch include OPEC's production decisions and global economic performance.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The downward revision of DoC crude demand to 42.4 mb/d, indicating a tighter supply situation.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and impact pricing.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from India and China presents growth potential for OPEC producers.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider proactive production adjustments to align with demand forecasts and stabilize prices.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-16
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: 48,472
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,916,438 contracts (+48,472)
Managed Money Net Position: 74 contracts (0.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -6,804 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 247,515 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -320,087 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
34
Last Updated:
2025-12-26 00:04:59
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil edges up on strong US economic growth, supply risks Reuters
- Oil Gains on Venezuela Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.98
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.62 (-0.63%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.49%)
SP500
6932.05
Daily:
22.26 (0.32%)
Weekly:
157.29 (2.32%)
VIX
13.47
Daily:
-0.53 (-3.79%)
Weekly:
-3.4 (-20.15%)
GOLD
4538.2
Daily:
57.6 (1.29%)
Weekly:
176.8 (4.05%)
COPPER
5.73
Daily:
0.23 (4.21%)
Weekly:
0.29 (5.34%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.44
Closest Support:
$58.01
0.74% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.95
0.87% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.85
0.382
$58.01
Support
0.5
$58.95
Resistance
0.618
$59.89
0.786
$61.22
1.0
$62.92
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.08
1.618
$67.83
2.0
$70.86
2.618
$75.77
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.43
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-26 00:05:03
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.29%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | $58.26 | $56.8 | $59.72 |
| 2025-12-27 | $58.16 | $56.7 | $59.62 |
| 2025-12-28 | $58.13 | $56.67 | $59.59 |
| 2025-12-29 | $58.12 | $56.66 | $59.58 |
| 2025-12-30 | $58.13 | $56.67 | $59.59 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.29% for the next trading day (2025-12-26), reaching $58.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-26 and 2025-12-30.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market shows signs of bearish sentiment as prices have decreased across major benchmarks. The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $65.20/b with a month-on-month drop of $5.19/b. The Brent-WTI spread at $3.88/b indicates a slight narrowing, suggesting stable supply dynamics between the two benchmarks.
Traders should monitor support levels around $60/b for WTI and $63/b for Brent, while potential resistance levels may form around $65/b for WTI. The ongoing bearish positioning of hedge funds, with a net position of 74 contracts, indicates potential volatility and risks in short-term trading strategies.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decline in crude prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket at $65.20/b, necessitates a reevaluation of production planning and hedging strategies. Lower prices may impact revenue forecasts, prompting producers to consider adjusting output levels or engaging in hedging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
Additionally, the rising OECD commercial inventories, which increased by 6.0 mb m-o-m, could indicate a surplus in supply, further pressuring prices. Producers should remain vigilant about inventory levels and global demand forecasts, particularly in non-OECD regions, where growth is expected to drive future oil demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Industrial consumers should anticipate potential fluctuations in input costs, given the current pricing environment with WTI averaging $60.07/b and Brent at $63.95/b. The geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions could pose risks to supply reliability, particularly for refined products.
With US crude exports reaching an eight-month high of 4.2 mb/d, consumers may need to consider procurement strategies that leverage current pricing while being mindful of potential supply chain disruptions. Monitoring the refining margins, which have improved, could also provide insights into the cost structure of refined products moving forward.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market reflects a complex interplay of bearish fundamentals and bullish sentiment from economic growth forecasts. The global oil demand growth forecast remains stable at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, with non-OECD regions leading the charge.
Analysts should note the supply-demand balance is adjusting, with increased production from non-DoC countries and rising OECD inventories. The managed money positioning indicates a bearish trend, suggesting potential shifts in market sentiment. Overall, the convergence of technical indicators, geopolitical risks, and economic forecasts will be critical in shaping future price movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute