57.35 is the key bull/bear line - what we are seeing is that news on Venezuela/US tension drives us up and news of Russia/Ukraine peace drives us down. When we pull back and look at some of the dynamics - demand is not holding up well (China is the only bright spot as they are building out their Strategic Petroleum Reserve but how long can that last?). Demand is very bearish and likely points to further downside. Supply on the other hand does not have as many barrels held back from the market - there is maybe 1 mmbpd held back from OPEC+ and every other spot in the world is producing as much as they can AT THIS PRICE LEVEL - remember that - if we rise to $80+ supply will increase, at $60 and below we will not see much growth. This week, I am watching 57.35 as this is the line we are dancing around, it appears that we seem headed for further downside to $53 next, this only reverses if 61.64 is retaken by the bulls.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-29 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is currently navigating a volatile landscape, with a pivotal price line at $57.35. Tensions in Venezuela boost prices, while potential peace in Ukraine pulls them down. Demand remains weak, particularly outside of China, which is stockpiling reserves. Meanwhile, OPEC+ holds back only about 1 mmbpd, suggesting ample supply at current levels. Expect further downside toward $53 unless bulls reclaim $61.64. Watch geopolitical developments and demand shifts closely; they could make or break this market!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$60.64
$1.6
WTI:
$56.74
$1.61
Spread:
$3.9
(Brent premium of $3.90)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
74
Weekly Change:
6,804
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.33
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $56.98
MA(20): $57.85
Current Price is 57.33, 9 day MA 56.98, 20 day MA 57.85
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.5294
Signal: -0.6233
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.12
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.12 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 10,403
Avg (20d): 203,432
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 56.09
%D: 50.07
Stochastic %K: 56.09, %D: 50.07. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.6
+DI: 14.83
-DI: 24.43
ADX: 20.6 (+DI: 14.83, -DI: 24.43). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -43.91
Williams %R: -43.91 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.37
Middle: 57.85
Lower: 55.32
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.37, Middle: 57.85, Lower: 55.32
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13843.0 | 13853.0 | 13631.0 | 13001.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6525.0 | 6589.0 | 5984.0 | 6406.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4664.0 | 4009.0 | 3099.0 | 4458.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16988.0 | 16860.0 | 16659.0 | 16362.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1861.0 | 2580.0 | 2885.0 | 1947.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 424417.0 | 425691.0 | 421950.0 | 427644.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687122.0 | 1684734.0 | 1628917.0 | 1613007.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 225627.0 | 220819.0 | 219689.0 | 224957.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 118500.0 | 116788.0 | 121335.0 | 117702.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $60.64, change $-1.6. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $56.74, change $-1.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$60.64
1.6
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$56.74
1.61
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.9
Brent premium of $3.90
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape marked by a slight decline in crude prices and a stable demand growth forecast. Global oil demand is projected to grow by +1.3 mb/d in 2025, with non-OECD countries driving the majority of this increase. Meanwhile, the supply-demand balance indicates a tightening market, necessitating careful monitoring of OPEC's production strategies.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025
- OECD oil demand: +0.1 mb/d growth
- Non-OECD oil demand: +1.2 mb/d growth
- China's demand forecast: 4.8% growth in 2025
- India's demand forecast: 6.5% growth in 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Non-DoC liquids production is forecasted at 54.1 mb/d
- Implications for OPEC: The tightening gap suggests OPEC may need to adjust production levels to maintain market stability.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains strong, with a growth forecast of +4.8% in 2025.
- India's growth story is robust, expected to expand by +6.5% in 2025, indicating a rising consumption trend.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand patterns supporting overall oil consumption.
- Europe faces challenges, struggling with stagnant demand growth amidst economic uncertainties.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by +1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions that could impact production.
- Opportunities lie in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, where demand is projected to surge.
- Market-moving factors to watch include OPEC's production decisions and global economic recovery trends.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: Non-OECD demand growth is significantly outpacing OECD growth.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains.
- Opportunity area: Increased investment in refining capacities in emerging markets.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the tightening supply-demand balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-16
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: 48,472
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,916,438 contracts (+48,472)
Managed Money Net Position: 74 contracts (0.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -6,804 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 247,515 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -320,087 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
13
Last Updated:
2025-12-29 00:04:49
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Gains on China Demand Outlook Trading Economics
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.06
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.23 (-0.23%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.36%)
SP500
6929.94
Daily:
-2.11 (-0.03%)
Weekly:
95.44 (1.4%)
VIX
13.6
Daily:
0.13 (0.97%)
Weekly:
-1.31 (-8.79%)
GOLD
4536.7
Daily:
7.6 (0.17%)
Weekly:
92.1 (2.07%)
COPPER
5.9
Daily:
0.13 (2.25%)
Weekly:
0.46 (8.43%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.33
Closest Support:
$56.85
0.84% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.01
1.19% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.85
Support
0.382
$58.01
Resistance
0.5
$58.95
0.618
$59.89
0.786
$61.22
1.0
$62.92
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.08
1.618
$67.83
2.0
$70.86
2.618
$75.77
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$56.74
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-29 00:04:51
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | $56.63 | $55.06 | $58.19 |
| 2025-12-28 | $56.52 | $54.96 | $58.09 |
| 2025-12-29 | $56.5 | $54.94 | $58.07 |
| 2025-12-30 | $56.68 | $55.11 | $58.24 |
| 2025-12-31 | $56.77 | $55.21 | $58.34 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2025-12-27), reaching $56.63.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-27 and 2025-12-31.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $65.20/b. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread suggests a slight weakening in the market structure, though the backwardation in forward curves indicates healthy physical fundamentals.
Traders should monitor the key support levels around the recent lows, particularly for WTI at $60.07/b and Brent at $63.95/b. The risk of volatility remains due to geopolitical tensions and bearish positioning from hedge funds, which may lead to price fluctuations in the short term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the crude production from OPEC countries decreasing by 73 tb/d and the balance of supply and demand showing a slight downward revision in demand for DoC crude, producers may need to adjust their production planning accordingly. The current inventory levels, which are 122.3 mb below the 2015–2019 average, suggest a tightening market that could benefit producers if managed effectively.
Hedging strategies should be revisited, considering the weakening sentiment among speculators, which may indicate potential price drops in the near term. Producers should also keep an eye on refining margins, which improved due to lower crude prices and tighter product balances.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
As crude oil prices are experiencing a downward trend, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The recent decline in US crude imports and the increase in exports signal a supply reliability risk that could affect procurement strategies.
The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with tensions affecting supply chains. Consumers may want to consider hedging options to mitigate the impact of price volatility, especially with the potential for further fluctuations in both WTI and Brent prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bearish outlook driven by decreasing prices across major benchmarks. The fundamentals indicate a stable demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d for 2025, but the bearish sentiment from hedge funds and increasing inventories suggest potential downward pressure on prices.
Analysts should focus on the implications of OPEC's production adjustments and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The market sentiment is currently mixed, with bullish signals from refining margins but bearish signals from inventory levels and positioning data. A thorough analysis of these factors will be crucial in forecasting future price movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.