57.35 is the key bull/bear line - what we are seeing is that news on Venezuela/US tension drives us up and news of Russia/Ukraine peace drives us down. When we pull back and look at some of the dynamics - demand is not holding up well (China is the only bright spot as they are building out their Strategic Petroleum Reserve but how long can that last?). Demand is very bearish and likely points to further downside. Supply on the other hand does not have as many barrels held back from the market - there is maybe 1 mmbpd held back from OPEC+ and every other spot in the world is producing as much as they can AT THIS PRICE LEVEL - remember that - if we rise to $80+ supply will increase, at $60 and below we will not see much growth. This week, I am watching 57.35 as this is the line we are dancing around, it appears that we seem headed for further downside to $53 next, this only reverses if 61.64 is retaken by the bulls.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-30 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the pivotal $57.35 mark, influenced heavily by geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Venezuela and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. While demand is faltering—China's strategic reserve build is the only silver lining—supply remains robust as OPEC+ holds back about 1 million barrels per day. A further decline to $53 is plausible if the bulls fail to reclaim $61.64. Keep an eye on these levels, as they will dictate market direction amidst mixed signals.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$60.64
$1.6
WTI:
$56.74
$1.61
Spread:
$3.9
(Brent premium of $3.90)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
74
Weekly Change:
6,804
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.06
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $57.06
MA(20): $57.88
Current Price is 58.06, 9 day MA 57.06, 20 day MA 57.88
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.4712
Signal: -0.6117
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 49.85
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 49.85 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,463
Avg (20d): 205,980
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 73.51
%D: 55.88
Stochastic %K: 73.51, %D: 55.88. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.6
+DI: 14.24
-DI: 23.46
ADX: 20.6 (+DI: 14.24, -DI: 23.46). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -26.49
Williams %R: -26.49 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 60.4
Middle: 57.88
Lower: 55.37
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 60.4, Middle: 57.88, Lower: 55.37
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13825.0 | 13843.0 | 13604.0 | 12961.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6086.0 | 6525.0 | 6649.0 | 6333.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3616.0 | 4664.0 | 4895.0 | 3700.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16776.0 | 16988.0 | 16611.0 | 16507.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2470.0 | 1861.0 | 1754.0 | 2632.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 424822.0 | 424417.0 | 421016.0 | 424099.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688594.0 | 1687122.0 | 1626224.0 | 1598284.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 228489.0 | 225627.0 | 222037.0 | 224243.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 118702.0 | 118500.0 | 118155.0 | 117479.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $60.64, change $-1.6. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $56.74, change $-1.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$60.64
1.6
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$56.74
1.61
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.9
Brent premium of $3.90
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently experiencing a demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d for 2025, with non-OECD countries driving the majority of this increase. Meanwhile, the supply from non-DoC countries is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d, leading to a projected demand gap of 42.4 mb/d for DoC crude. These dynamics will significantly influence OPEC's production strategies moving forward.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand growth: 4.8% for 2025
- India's demand growth: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily from DoC crude demand
- Implications for OPEC: The increasing demand for DoC crude suggests a need for OPEC to adjust production levels to meet market needs and stabilize prices.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025, indicating strong consumption patterns.
- India's growth story continues to impress, with a projected increase of 6.5% in oil demand for 2025, positioning it as a key market for OPEC.
- The Americas show resilience with stable demand, supported by ongoing economic recovery and increased refining activities.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand growth, necessitating strategic adjustments in supply to mitigate potential oversupply risks.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by approximately 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with non-OECD countries leading the charge.
- Risks and opportunities: Economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions could pose risks, while the growing demand from Asia presents opportunities for OPEC.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in refining capacities, geopolitical developments, and shifts in consumer behavior will be critical in shaping the oil market landscape.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The projected demand gap of 42.4 mb/d for DoC crude highlights significant market pressures.
- Biggest risk factor: Economic instability in key markets could dampen demand growth.
- Opportunity area: The robust growth in India and China presents a significant opportunity for OPEC to expand its market share.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the increasing demand from non-OECD countries to maintain market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-16
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: 48,472
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,916,438 contracts (+48,472)
Managed Money Net Position: 74 contracts (0.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -6,804 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 247,515 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -320,087 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
19
Last Updated:
2025-12-30 00:04:34
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Gains on China Demand Outlook Trading Economics
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.98
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.31 (-0.31%)
US_10Y
4.12
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.48%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.27%)
SP500
6905.74
Daily:
-24.2 (-0.35%)
Weekly:
27.25 (0.4%)
VIX
14.2
Daily:
0.6 (4.41%)
Weekly:
0.12 (0.85%)
GOLD
4378.2
Daily:
-150.9 (-3.33%)
Weekly:
-66.4 (-1.49%)
COPPER
5.7
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.11%)
Weekly:
0.26 (4.87%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.06
Closest Support:
$58.01
0.09% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.95
1.53% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.85
0.382
$58.01
Support
0.5
$58.95
Resistance
0.618
$59.89
0.786
$61.22
1.0
$62.92
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.08
1.618
$67.83
2.0
$70.86
2.618
$75.77
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.06
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-30 00:04:37
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.17%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | $57.96 | $56.34 | $59.57 |
| 2025-12-31 | $58.01 | $56.4 | $59.63 |
| 2026-01-01 | $58.21 | $56.59 | $59.82 |
| 2026-01-02 | $58.14 | $56.52 | $59.75 |
| 2026-01-03 | $58.09 | $56.48 | $59.71 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.17% for the next trading day (2025-12-30), reaching $57.96.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-30 and 2026-01-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the market is reflected in the $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value to $65.20/b. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread indicates a persistent premium for Brent, suggesting potential risks for US producers due to transportation costs. The market remains in backwardation, indicating healthy physical oil market fundamentals, but hedge funds are maintaining a bearish stance, which could lead to increased volatility. Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations in the spread, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate or if demand from China strengthens.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decrease in $3.46/b for NYMEX WTI signals a need for re-evaluation of production planning and hedging strategies. With OECD commercial inventories rising, producers should consider adjusting output to avoid excess supply. The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight decrease in demand for DoC crude, which could impact pricing strategies moving forward. Additionally, the neutral sentiment in the market suggests that while immediate risks are present, long-term strategies should remain focused on efficiency and cost management.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude oil prices averaging $60.07/b, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions in the Middle East, may affect supply reliability. The recent improvements in refining margins, especially for middle distillates, could provide opportunities for procurement at favorable prices. However, the balance of supply and demand suggests that consumers should remain vigilant about inventory levels and consider hedging against price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bearish phase, as indicated by the price drops across all major benchmarks and the bearish positioning of managed money traders. The fundamentals show stable demand growth, especially from non-OECD countries, but the overall sentiment is tempered by increasing inventories and geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts should focus on the implications of the neutral sentiment and monitor key economic indicators that may shift the outlook, particularly in relation to China’s demand and global economic growth forecasts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.