57.35 is the key bull/bear line - what we are seeing is that news on Venezuela/US tension drives us up and news of Russia/Ukraine peace drives us down. When we pull back and look at some of the dynamics - demand is not holding up well (China is the only bright spot as they are building out their Strategic Petroleum Reserve but how long can that last?). Demand is very bearish and likely points to further downside. Supply on the other hand does not have as many barrels held back from the market - there is maybe 1 mmbpd held back from OPEC+ and every other spot in the world is producing as much as they can AT THIS PRICE LEVEL - remember that - if we rise to $80+ supply will increase, at $60 and below we will not see much growth. This week, I am watching 57.35 as this is the line we are dancing around, it appears that we seem headed for further downside to $53 next, this only reverses if 61.64 is retaken by the bulls.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-01 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating a precarious landscape, with the key bull/bear line at $57.35. Recent events show that tensions in Venezuela and the U.S. can drive prices up, while peace talks in Ukraine weigh them down. Demand remains weak, particularly outside China, which is stockpiling reserves. With OPEC+ holding back only 1 mmbpd, a rise to $80 may increase supply, but a dip below $60 could stifle growth. Watch for a potential downturn toward $53 unless bulls reclaim $61.64. Stay alert!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$61.92
$0.02
WTI:
$57.95
$0.13
Spread:
$3.97
(Brent premium of $3.97)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
11,360
Weekly Change:
11,286
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.42
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $57.53
MA(20): $57.75
Current Price is 57.42, 9 day MA 57.53, 20 day MA 57.75
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.393
Signal: -0.5348
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.61
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.61 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 143,802
Avg (20d): 204,553
Ratio: 0.7
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 61.62
%D: 69.52
Stochastic %K: 61.62, %D: 69.52. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.05
+DI: 13.37
-DI: 22.75
ADX: 21.05 (+DI: 13.37, -DI: 22.75). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -38.38
Williams %R: -38.38 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.16
Middle: 57.75
Lower: 55.35
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.16, Middle: 57.75, Lower: 55.35
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13827.0 | 13825.0 | 13585.0 | 12957.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4953.0 | 6086.0 | 6471.0 | 6511.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3440.0 | 3616.0 | 3722.0 | 4451.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16847.0 | 16776.0 | 16816.0 | 15785.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1513.0 | 2470.0 | 2749.0 | 2060.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422888.0 | 424822.0 | 416779.0 | 422437.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1698998.0 | 1688594.0 | 1613783.0 | 1602166.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 234334.0 | 228489.0 | 223667.0 | 230333.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 123679.0 | 118702.0 | 116461.0 | 122502.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $61.92, change $-0.02. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $57.95, change $-0.13. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.97 (Brent premium of $3.97). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$61.92
0.02
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$57.95
0.13
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.97
Brent premium of $3.97
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is experiencing a notable shift, with global demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, driven primarily by non-OECD countries. Meanwhile, supply from non-DoC nations is set to increase by 0.9 mb/d, leading to a projected demand-supply gap of 42.4 mb/d in 2025. These dynamics will significantly influence OPEC's production strategies moving forward.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand growth: 4.8% for 2025
- India's demand growth: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d
- Regions driving the deficit: Non-DoC countries
- Implications for OPEC: Adjustments in production levels may be necessary to align with demand forecasts.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains strong, with a growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025.
- India's growth story is robust, projected at 6.5% for 2025, indicating rising consumption.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand patterns despite global fluctuations.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant growth, necessitating strategic adjustments in supply sourcing.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook indicates continued demand growth, with global oil demand increasing by 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions.
- Opportunities lie in expanding markets in Asia, particularly in India and China.
- Market-moving factors to watch include refining margins and crude price fluctuations.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: Non-DoC liquids production is forecasted to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions affecting supply stability.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand in India and China presents growth potential for OPEC.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to mitigate the widening supply-demand gap.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-23
Managed Money
11,360
Change: +11,286
0.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
245,148
Change: -2,367
13.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-313,332
Change: +6,755
-16.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,863,543
Change: -52,895
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,863,543 contracts (-52,895)
Managed Money Net Position: 11,360 contracts (0.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +11,286 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,148 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -313,332 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
35
Last Updated:
2026-01-01 00:05:02
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Gains on China Demand Outlook Trading Economics
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Global Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Rebounds As Russia-Ukraine War Seen Continuing — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Picks Up on Lack of Russia-Ukraine Peace Breakthrough — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil gains as investors weigh Middle East tensions Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.28
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
0.3 (0.31%)
US_10Y
4.16
Daily:
0.03 (0.8%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.65%)
SP500
6845.5
Daily:
-50.74 (-0.74%)
Weekly:
-86.55 (-1.25%)
VIX
14.95
Daily:
0.62 (4.33%)
Weekly:
1.48 (10.99%)
GOLD
4325.6
Daily:
-44.5 (-1.02%)
Weekly:
-155.0 (-3.46%)
COPPER
5.63
Daily:
-0.1 (-1.7%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.39%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.42
Closest Support:
$56.85
0.99% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.01
1.03% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.85
Support
0.382
$58.01
Resistance
0.5
$58.95
0.618
$59.89
0.786
$61.22
1.0
$62.92
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.08
1.618
$67.83
2.0
$70.86
2.618
$75.77
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$57.42
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-01 00:05:05
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.34%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | $57.61 | $56.05 | $59.17 |
| 2026-01-02 | $57.51 | $55.95 | $59.07 |
| 2026-01-03 | $57.46 | $55.9 | $59.02 |
| 2026-01-04 | $57.53 | $55.97 | $59.09 |
| 2026-01-05 | $57.53 | $55.97 | $59.09 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.34% for the next trading day (2026-01-01), reaching $57.61.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-01 and 2026-01-05.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Crude oil prices have seen a significant decline in October, with the $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket and similar decreases in other benchmarks like $3.63 for ICE Brent and $3.46 for NYMEX WTI. This trend indicates potential bearish sentiment in the short term.
The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread suggests ongoing neutral market dynamics, reflecting the differences in supply and demand between U.S. and global markets. The backwardation in the forward curves indicates a bullish outlook for immediate physical oil market fundamentals despite the bearish price movements.
Traders should be aware of potential volatility due to the bearish positioning of hedge funds and other money managers. Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations around Fibonacci support levels, particularly if prices approach support levels established in previous months. However, caution is advised due to the prevailing bearish sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The recent decline in crude oil prices necessitates a reevaluation of hedging strategies to protect against further downside risks. With the OPEC production decrease of 73 tb/d in October and the 43.02 mb/d average production, producers should assess their output levels in light of lower demand forecasts for DoC crude, now revised down to 42.4 mb/d for 2025.
Inventory levels are also a concern, as OECD commercial stocks rose by 6.0 mb in September, indicating a potential oversupply in the market. This could lead to further price pressure, impacting revenue forecasts. Producers should monitor refining margins, which have improved, to strategize on maximizing profitability during this period of price weakness.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With WTI and Brent prices declining, consumers may see potential cost savings in input prices. However, the volatility in the market could pose supply reliability risks, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels. The recent increase in U.S. crude exports to 4.2 mb/d could enhance supply options, but consumers should remain vigilant about potential disruptions from geopolitical events.
Additionally, the tightening product balances and improved refining margins suggest that procurement strategies may need to adapt to changing market conditions. Monitoring product availability and pricing trends will be crucial for effective cost management in the coming months.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture characterized by bearish price movements amid stable demand growth forecasts of 1.3 mb/d for 2025. The divergence between supply and demand dynamics, particularly with non-DoC liquids production expected to grow, highlights potential balance challenges in the market.
Market sentiment remains mixed, with a bullish outlook on physical fundamentals due to backwardation in forward curves, despite bearish positioning from speculators. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical risks and inventory fluctuations, as these factors will likely drive short-term price movements and market sentiment.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.