57.35 is the key bull/bear line - what we are seeing is that news on Venezuela/US tension drives us up and news of Russia/Ukraine peace drives us down. When we pull back and look at some of the dynamics - demand is not holding up well (China is the only bright spot as they are building out their Strategic Petroleum Reserve but how long can that last?). Demand is very bearish and likely points to further downside. Supply on the other hand does not have as many barrels held back from the market - there is maybe 1 mmbpd held back from OPEC+ and every other spot in the world is producing as much as they can AT THIS PRICE LEVEL - remember that - if we rise to $80+ supply will increase, at $60 and below we will not see much growth. This week, I am watching 57.35 as this is the line we are dancing around, it appears that we seem headed for further downside to $53 next, this only reverses if 61.64 is retaken by the bulls.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-02 00:06
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil's journey has been a wild ride lately, with the pivotal bull/bear line at $57.35. Tensions around Venezuela and the US keep pushing prices up, while news of potential Russia-Ukraine peace weighs them down. Demand is bearish overall, with China’s strategic reserves being a lone bright spot. OPEC+ is holding back about 1 mmbpd, but global supply is ramping up at these price levels. Watch for movements around $57.35, as further downside to $53 seems likely unless bulls reclaim $61.64.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$61.96
$0.04
WTI:
$57.42
$0.53
Spread:
$4.54
(Brent premium of $4.54)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
11,360
Weekly Change:
11,286
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.65
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.69
MA(20): $57.69
Current Price is 57.65, 9 day MA 57.69, 20 day MA 57.69
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3603
Signal: -0.4999
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.94
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 7,408
Avg (20d): 191,874
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 68.46
%D: 67.68
Stochastic %K: 68.46, %D: 67.68. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.4
+DI: 13.1
-DI: 22.29
ADX: 21.4 (+DI: 13.1, -DI: 22.29). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -31.54
Williams %R: -31.54 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.03
Middle: 57.69
Lower: 55.35
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.03, Middle: 57.69, Lower: 55.35
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13827.0 | 13825.0 | 13585.0 | 12957.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4953.0 | 6086.0 | 6471.0 | 6511.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3440.0 | 3616.0 | 3722.0 | 4451.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16847.0 | 16776.0 | 16816.0 | 15785.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1513.0 | 2470.0 | 2749.0 | 2060.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422888.0 | 424822.0 | 416779.0 | 422437.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1698998.0 | 1688594.0 | 1613783.0 | 1602166.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 234334.0 | 228489.0 | 223667.0 | 230333.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 123679.0 | 118702.0 | 116461.0 | 122502.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $61.96, change $+0.04. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $57.42, change $-0.53. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.54 (Brent premium of $4.54). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$61.96
0.04
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$57.42
0.53
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.54
Brent premium of $4.54
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently facing a challenging balance, with global demand forecasted to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while supply from non-DoC countries is expected to increase by only 0.9 mb/d. The demand for DoC crude is projected at 42.4 mb/d for 2025, indicating a tightening market. As OPEC navigates these dynamics, production decisions will be critical to maintaining market stability.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand growth: 4.8% for 2025
- India's demand growth: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d
- Regions driving the deficit: Demand for DoC crude is increasing while production from DoC countries is constrained.
- Implications for OPEC: OPEC may need to adjust production levels to address the tightening supply-demand balance.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecast growth of 4.8% in 2025, indicating strong consumption patterns.
- India's growth story is equally compelling, with demand expected to rise by 6.5% in 2025, driven by economic expansion.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand forecasts supporting overall market stability.
- Europe faces challenges, with stagnant demand growth and potential supply constraints impacting the region's oil market.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, maintaining a steady upward trajectory.
- Risks and opportunities: Geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could pose risks, while emerging markets present growth opportunities.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in OPEC production levels, global economic performance, and shifts in consumer behavior will be critical.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The demand for DoC crude is revised down to 42.4 mb/d for 2025, indicating tighter market conditions.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and impact market stability.
- Opportunity area: Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, present significant growth potential for oil consumption.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to better align with the tightening supply-demand balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-23
Managed Money
11,360
Change: +11,286
0.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
245,148
Change: -2,367
13.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-313,332
Change: +6,755
-16.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,863,543
Change: -52,895
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,863,543 contracts (-52,895)
Managed Money Net Position: 11,360 contracts (0.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +11,286 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,148 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -313,332 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
35
Last Updated:
2026-01-02 00:06:14
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Global Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Picks Up on Lack of Russia-Ukraine Peace Breakthrough — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.22
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
0.2 (0.21%)
US_10Y
4.16
Daily:
0.03 (0.8%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.65%)
SP500
6845.5
Daily:
-50.74 (-0.74%)
Weekly:
-86.55 (-1.25%)
VIX
14.95
Daily:
0.62 (4.33%)
Weekly:
1.48 (10.99%)
GOLD
4385.0
Daily:
59.4 (1.37%)
Weekly:
-144.1 (-3.18%)
COPPER
5.74
Daily:
0.11 (1.98%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.43%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.65
Closest Support:
$56.85
1.39% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.01
0.62% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.85
Support
0.382
$58.01
Resistance
0.5
$58.95
0.618
$59.89
0.786
$61.22
1.0
$62.92
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.08
1.618
$67.83
2.0
$70.86
2.618
$75.77
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$57.65
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-02 00:06:18
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.18%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | $57.54 | $56.03 | $59.06 |
| 2026-01-03 | $57.5 | $55.99 | $59.01 |
| 2026-01-04 | $57.57 | $56.05 | $59.08 |
| 2026-01-05 | $57.56 | $56.05 | $59.07 |
| 2026-01-06 | $57.56 | $56.05 | $59.08 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2026-01-02), reaching $57.54.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-02 and 2026-01-06.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $65.20/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket, suggests a bearish sentiment in the market. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread indicates a slight narrowing, which may present risks for traders focusing on arbitrage opportunities.
The market structure remains in backwardation, pointing to healthy physical fundamentals despite the price drop. Traders should watch for support levels around the $60/b mark for WTI and $63/b for Brent, as these could serve as critical points for potential rebounds.
With hedge funds maintaining a bearish stance, volatility may increase, providing short-term trading opportunities. Monitoring CFTC positioning data is essential, as a shift in Managed Money's net position could signal upcoming price trends.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decline in crude prices necessitates a reassessment of hedging strategies for producers. With current inventory levels, including a 6.0 mb increase in OECD commercial inventories, producers should consider adjusting production plans to mitigate excess supply risks.
The balance between supply and demand indicates a slight decrease in demand for DoC crude, with projections at 42.4 mb/d for 2025. This could impact revenue forecasts and necessitate strategic adjustments in production to align with market realities.
The bullish sentiment in refining margins, particularly for middle distillates, offers opportunities for producers to leverage higher margins in their product offerings.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
The recent fluctuations in crude prices, averaging $60.07/b for WTI, may lead to input cost fluctuations for consumers. It is crucial to monitor the Brent-WTI spread, which currently stands at $4.54, as it reflects the supply-demand dynamics affecting procurement strategies.
Geopolitical risks and inventory levels, including a 1.7 mb/d decline in global refinery intakes, present potential supply reliability risks. Consumers should consider locking in prices or adjusting procurement strategies to hedge against these uncertainties.
The improvement in refining margins, especially in the USGC, suggests opportunities for consumers to optimize their procurement strategies, particularly for middle distillates.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The crude oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment in price movements, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to $65.20/b. The fundamentals show a stable growth trajectory in global oil demand, forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, but the balance is skewed by rising inventory levels and a slight decrease in demand for DoC crude.
The bullish sentiment in refining margins contrasts with the bearish price outlook, suggesting that while crude prices may remain under pressure, refining operations could benefit from improved margins.
Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and C