57.35 is the key bull/bear line - what we are seeing is that news on Venezuela/US tension drives us up and news of Russia/Ukraine peace drives us down. When we pull back and look at some of the dynamics - demand is not holding up well (China is the only bright spot as they are building out their Strategic Petroleum Reserve but how long can that last?). Demand is very bearish and likely points to further downside. Supply on the other hand does not have as many barrels held back from the market - there is maybe 1 mmbpd held back from OPEC+ and every other spot in the world is producing as much as they can AT THIS PRICE LEVEL - remember that - if we rise to $80+ supply will increase, at $60 and below we will not see much growth. This week, I am watching 57.35 as this is the line we are dancing around, it appears that we seem headed for further downside to $53 next, this only reverses if 61.64 is retaken by the bulls.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-04 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating a tumultuous market, with the critical $57.35 line acting as a bull/bear pivot. Recent tensions in Venezuela and the US lift prices, while peace talks between Russia and Ukraine weigh heavily. Demand is faltering—China's strategic reserve buildup is the lone bright spot—but overall, bearish sentiments dominate. Supply remains steady, with OPEC+ holding back just 1 mmbpd. Analysts predict a further dip towards $53 unless bulls reclaim $61.64. Keep an eye on those geopolitical developments and demand trends!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$60.75
$0.1
WTI:
$57.32
$0.1
Spread:
$3.43
(Brent premium of $3.43)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
11,360
Weekly Change:
11,286
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.32
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $57.66
MA(20): $57.67
Current Price is 57.32, 9 day MA 57.66, 20 day MA 57.67
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3867
Signal: -0.5051
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.1
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.1 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 166,834
Avg (20d): 200,514
Ratio: 0.83
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 60.0
%D: 64.86
Stochastic %K: 60.0, %D: 64.86. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.85
+DI: 12.45
-DI: 24.29
ADX: 21.85 (+DI: 12.45, -DI: 24.29). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -40.0
Williams %R: -40.0 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.02
Middle: 57.67
Lower: 55.33
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.02, Middle: 57.67, Lower: 55.33
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13827.0 | 13825.0 | 13585.0 | 12957.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4953.0 | 6086.0 | 6471.0 | 6511.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3440.0 | 3616.0 | 3722.0 | 4451.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16847.0 | 16776.0 | 16816.0 | 15785.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1513.0 | 2470.0 | 2749.0 | 2060.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422888.0 | 424822.0 | 416779.0 | 422437.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1698998.0 | 1688594.0 | 1613783.0 | 1602166.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 234334.0 | 228489.0 | 223667.0 | 230333.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 123679.0 | 118702.0 | 116461.0 | 122502.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $60.75, change $-0.1. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $57.32, change $-0.1. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.43 (Brent premium of $3.43). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$60.75
0.1
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$57.32
0.1
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.43
Brent premium of $3.43
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The global oil market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, with world oil demand projected to reach 105.1 mb/d in 2025, reflecting a growth of +1.3 mb/d year-on-year. The supply side is tightening, with OPEC's crude production averaging 43.02 mb/d in October, indicating a decrease of -73 tb/d month-on-month. As the market adjusts, OPEC faces critical decisions regarding production levels to balance the evolving landscape.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD oil demand: +0.1 mb/d in 2025
- Non-OECD oil demand: +1.2 mb/d in 2025
- China's demand growth: 4.8% for 2025
- India's demand growth: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Non-DoC liquids production is forecasted at 54.1 mb/d, indicating a shortfall against demand.
- Implications for OPEC: The current supply-demand gap suggests OPEC may need to adjust production levels to stabilize prices and meet demand.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with projections of +4.8% growth in 2025.
- India's growth story is significant, with demand expected to rise by +6.5% in 2025, positioning it as a key player in the oil market.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand forecasts supporting overall market stability.
- Europe faces challenges, with stagnant growth forecasts of +1.2% for both 2025 and 2026, impacting overall demand.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by +1.4 mb/d in 2026, with continued growth in non-OECD regions.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions affecting production and distribution.
- Opportunities lie in increasing demand from emerging markets, particularly in Asia, which could drive prices higher.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in OPEC production strategies and economic growth forecasts in key regions.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: Non-DoC liquids production is expected to grow by +0.9 mb/d in 2025, indicating strong supply potential.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and affect market stability.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from India and China presents a significant growth opportunity for OPEC.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with demand forecasts and stabilize prices.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-23
Managed Money
11,360
Change: +11,286
0.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
245,148
Change: -2,367
13.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-313,332
Change: +6,755
-16.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,863,543
Change: -52,895
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,863,543 contracts (-52,895)
Managed Money Net Position: 11,360 contracts (0.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +11,286 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,148 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -313,332 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
19
Last Updated:
2026-01-04 00:05:03
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.43
Daily:
0.15 (0.16%)
Weekly:
0.41 (0.42%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.02 (0.58%)
Weekly:
0.05 (1.23%)
SP500
6858.47
Daily:
12.97 (0.19%)
Weekly:
-71.47 (-1.03%)
VIX
14.51
Daily:
-0.44 (-2.94%)
Weekly:
0.91 (6.69%)
GOLD
4329.6
Daily:
4.0 (0.09%)
Weekly:
-199.5 (-4.4%)
COPPER
5.69
Daily:
0.06 (1.09%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.3%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.32
Closest Support:
$56.85
0.82% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.01
1.2% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.85
Support
0.382
$58.01
Resistance
0.5
$58.95
0.618
$59.89
0.786
$61.22
1.0
$62.92
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.08
1.618
$67.83
2.0
$70.86
2.618
$75.77
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$57.32
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-04 00:05:05
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | $57.26 | $55.78 | $58.74 |
| 2026-01-04 | $57.32 | $55.84 | $58.81 |
| 2026-01-05 | $57.35 | $55.87 | $58.83 |
| 2026-01-06 | $57.36 | $55.88 | $58.84 |
| 2026-01-07 | $57.37 | $55.89 | $58.85 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2026-01-03), reaching $57.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-03 and 2026-01-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting bearish sentiment, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $65.20/b. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.88/b, indicating a convergence in supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets. Traders should watch for potential support levels around $60/b for WTI and $63/b for Brent, while resistance levels may form near the recent highs. The bearish positioning of hedge funds, as indicated by their net positions, suggests caution; however, the backwardation in forward curves reflects healthy physical market fundamentals that could provide short-term opportunities amid volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the current bearish market sentiment, producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The decrease in crude production from OPEC countries, averaging 43.02 mb/d, alongside a slight increase in OECD commercial inventories, indicates a need for careful inventory management. The ongoing balance between demand and supply, projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, suggests that while there is potential for demand recovery, producers must remain agile in response to market fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, currently averaging $60.07/b for WTI. The recent drop in U.S. crude imports and the rise in exports to 4.2 mb/d may impact supply reliability. Additionally, geopolitical factors and inventory levels, particularly in the OECD, which are 37.7 mb higher than last year but 122.3 mb below the 2015–2019 average, should be closely monitored for procurement strategies. As demand grows, particularly in non-OECD countries, consumers may want to consider hedging against price increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by a significant drop in prices across major benchmarks. Key factors include the balance of supply and demand, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, and production from non-DoC countries expected to rise. The bearish positioning of managed money traders indicates potential market reversals, while the positive refining margins suggest some resilience in downstream operations. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in sentiment and macroeconomic indicators that could signal changes in the market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.