57.35 is the key bull/bear line - what we are seeing is that news on Venezuela/US tension drives us up and news of Russia/Ukraine peace drives us down. When we pull back and look at some of the dynamics - demand is not holding up well (China is the only bright spot as they are building out their Strategic Petroleum Reserve but how long can that last?). Demand is very bearish and likely points to further downside. Supply on the other hand does not have as many barrels held back from the market - there is maybe 1 mmbpd held back from OPEC+ and every other spot in the world is producing as much as they can AT THIS PRICE LEVEL - remember that - if we rise to $80+ supply will increase, at $60 and below we will not see much growth. This week, I am watching 57.35 as this is the line we are dancing around, it appears that we seem headed for further downside to $53 next, this only reverses if 61.64 is retaken by the bulls.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-05 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating a turbulent landscape, with the key pivot point at $57.35. While news surrounding Venezuela and U.S. tensions sparks temporary spikes, the underlying demand remains weak, particularly outside of China, which is stockpiling oil. Oversupply concerns are mounting as OPEC+ holds back only 1 million barrels. A bearish outlook hints at a potential drop to $53 unless prices reclaim $61.64. As we watch the interplay of geopolitical events and demand dynamics, staying alert is essential for traders.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$60.75
$0.1
WTI:
$57.32
$0.1
Spread:
$3.43
(Brent premium of $3.43)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
11,360
Weekly Change:
11,286
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$57.05
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.7
MA(20): $57.54
Current Price is 57.05, 9 day MA 57.7, 20 day MA 57.54
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3988
Signal: -0.4839
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 44.68
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 44.68 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 28,431
Avg (20d): 188,202
Ratio: 0.15
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 53.08
%D: 58.23
Stochastic %K: 53.08, %D: 58.23. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.62
+DI: 11.68
-DI: 23.01
ADX: 22.62 (+DI: 11.68, -DI: 23.01). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -46.92
Williams %R: -46.92 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 59.71
Middle: 57.54
Lower: 55.37
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 59.71, Middle: 57.54, Lower: 55.37
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13827.0 | 13825.0 | 13585.0 | 12957.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4953.0 | 6086.0 | 6471.0 | 6511.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3440.0 | 3616.0 | 3722.0 | 4451.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16847.0 | 16776.0 | 16816.0 | 15785.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1513.0 | 2470.0 | 2749.0 | 2060.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422888.0 | 424822.0 | 416779.0 | 422437.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1698998.0 | 1688594.0 | 1613783.0 | 1602166.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 234334.0 | 228489.0 | 223667.0 | 230333.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 123679.0 | 118702.0 | 116461.0 | 122502.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $60.75, change $-0.1. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $57.32, change $-0.1. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.43 (Brent premium of $3.43). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$60.75
0.1
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$57.32
0.1
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.43
Brent premium of $3.43
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently witnessing a delicate balance between supply and demand, with global oil demand projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025. OPEC's production decisions will be crucial as the demand for crude from participating countries is expected to reach 42.4 mb/d. As economic growth stabilizes globally, the dynamics of key consumer nations like China and India will significantly influence market trends.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025 (+1.4 mb/d from 2024)
- OECD demand: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2025
- Non-OECD demand: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2025
- China's demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d demand vs 62.7 mb/d supply from non-DoC and DoC NGLs, resulting in a surplus of 20.3 mb/d.
- Key regions driving the surplus: Non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia.
- Implications for OPEC: Adjustments in production levels may be necessary to align with the anticipated demand for DoC crude, which is revised down to 42.4 mb/d for 2025.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecast growth of 4.8% for 2025, indicating a strong recovery in consumption.
- India's growth story is compelling, with demand expected to rise by 6.5% in 2025, reflecting its increasing energy needs.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable production levels supporting domestic demand and exports.
- Europe faces challenges, as demand growth remains stagnant, necessitating careful monitoring of supply dynamics.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with non-OECD countries leading the charge.
- Risks and opportunities: Geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact demand, while technological advancements in energy efficiency present opportunities.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in OPEC production levels, shifts in global economic growth, and developments in key consumer markets like China and India.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The downward revision of DoC crude demand to 42.4 mb/d for 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: Potential geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from India presents a significant growth opportunity for OPEC producers.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to better match the evolving demand landscape, particularly in non-OECD regions.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-23
Managed Money
11,360
Change: +11,286
0.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
245,148
Change: -2,367
13.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-313,332
Change: +6,755
-16.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,863,543
Change: -52,895
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,863,543 contracts (-52,895)
Managed Money Net Position: 11,360 contracts (0.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +11,286 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,148 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -313,332 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
24
Last Updated:
2026-01-05 00:04:44
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil Declines on Oversupply Worries After Maduro's Ouster — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Long-Term Stability in Venezuela Could Meaningfully Increase Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices likely to move higher on Venezuelan turmoil, ample supply to cap gains Reuters
- Oil Futures Open Year Lower on Oversupply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steady as Supply Glut Offsets Gulf Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.74
Daily:
0.32 (0.32%)
Weekly:
0.7 (0.71%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.02 (0.58%)
Weekly:
0.05 (1.23%)
SP500
6858.47
Daily:
12.97 (0.19%)
Weekly:
-71.47 (-1.03%)
VIX
14.51
Daily:
-0.44 (-2.94%)
Weekly:
0.91 (6.69%)
GOLD
4413.0
Daily:
98.6 (2.29%)
Weekly:
87.9 (2.03%)
COPPER
5.86
Daily:
0.22 (3.95%)
Weekly:
0.37 (6.78%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$57.05
Closest Support:
$56.84
0.37% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$57.99
1.65% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.84
Support
0.382
$57.99
Resistance
0.5
$58.92
0.618
$59.86
0.786
$61.18
1.0
$62.87
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.02
1.618
$67.75
2.0
$70.76
2.618
$75.64
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$57.32
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-05 00:04:47
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | $57.26 | $55.78 | $58.74 |
| 2026-01-04 | $57.32 | $55.84 | $58.81 |
| 2026-01-05 | $57.35 | $55.87 | $58.83 |
| 2026-01-06 | $57.36 | $55.88 | $58.84 |
| 2026-01-07 | $57.37 | $55.89 | $58.85 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2026-01-03), reaching $57.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-03 and 2026-01-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The crude oil market is currently exhibiting bearish sentiment, with prices declining across major benchmarks. The OPEC Reference Basket has dropped to an average of $65.20/b, while ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI are averaging $63.95/b and $60.07/b respectively.
The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to an average of $3.88/b, indicating potential shifts in supply dynamics. Traders should watch for support levels around $60/b for WTI and $63/b for Brent, as these could be critical in the short term.
With managed money positioning indicating a bullish trend, traders might find opportunities in short-term volatility, especially given the current backwardation in the forward curves. However, the overall risk remains due to bearish market sentiment and external geopolitical factors.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the current supply and demand forecast, which indicates a modest increase in global oil demand by about 1.3 mb/d in 2025. However, with non-DoC liquids production expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d, the competition may intensify.
The recent increase in OECD commercial inventories, which rose by 6.0 mb to 2,845 mb, signals a need to monitor inventory levels closely to adjust production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The bearish market sentiment could also impact pricing strategies, necessitating a focus on cost management and operational efficiency.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude prices remain volatile, with WTI and Brent prices averaging $60.07/b and $63.95/b respectively. The risk of supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels should also be factored into procurement strategies.
The refining margins have improved, particularly for middle distillates, which may benefit refineries in the short term. However, with the current bearish sentiment, it's prudent for consumers to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations and ensure supply reliability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The crude oil market is currently facing a bearish outlook driven by a combination of factors. The decline in OPEC Reference Basket prices, coupled with rising OECD inventories, suggests a potential oversupply scenario. Global oil demand growth remains stable but modest, with forecasts indicating an increase of 1.3 mb/d in 2025.
Additionally, the balance of supply and demand is shifting, with non-DoC production increasing and managed money positioning indicating a potential market reversal. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and inventory trends as they could significantly impact market dynamics moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.