Crude oil is reacting violently to geopolitical developments, yet remains stuck near $57–58 WTI, a level that reflects a market swimming in supply rather than starving for barrels. Venezuela may dominate the news cycle, but it currently produces less than 1 million barrels per day, representing under 1% of global supply, while global balances continue to point toward surplus conditions into 2026. One thing that 2025 taught us is that crude traders are trained to wait for the PROVE IT TO ME phase - headlines that historically moved the market $10 (as the Venezuelan headline would have done in years past), traders now are anticipating that all is normal until proven otherwise. Of course with a military action and removal of Maduro, this can change overnight. For now, 57.35 is the key bull/bear line and I expect it to be fought over. The chart looks weak, but the resilience at 57.35 over the last month gives bulls some hope. This week - all eyes are glued at that bull/bear line. Demand is still a concern and OPEC+ headlines will re-emerge later in the month I expect.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-06 00:06
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil remains in a tight range around $57–58 WTI, reflecting an oversupplied market despite geopolitical headlines like Venezuela’s turmoil. With production under 1 million bpd from Venezuela and global supply projected to exceed demand through 2026, traders are in a "prove it to me" mindset, waiting for real shifts. The pivotal $57.35 level is critical, with bulls showing some resilience. As OPEC+ headlines loom, cautious optimism persists—watch for any shifts that could disrupt this delicate balance.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$60.75
$0.1
WTI:
$57.32
$0.1
Spread:
$3.43
(Brent premium of $3.43)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
15,743
Weekly Change:
4,383
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.14
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.82
MA(20): $57.6
Current Price is 58.14, 9 day MA 57.82, 20 day MA 57.6
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3119
Signal: -0.4665
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 50.85
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 50.85 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 11,872
Avg (20d): 188,991
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 81.03
%D: 67.55
Stochastic %K: 81.03, %D: 67.55. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.98
+DI: 14.12
-DI: 22.94
ADX: 21.98 (+DI: 14.12, -DI: 22.94). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -18.97
Williams %R: -18.97 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 59.77
Middle: 57.6
Lower: 55.42
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 59.77, Middle: 57.6, Lower: 55.42
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13827.0 | 13825.0 | 13585.0 | 12957.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4953.0 | 6086.0 | 6471.0 | 6511.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3440.0 | 3616.0 | 3722.0 | 4451.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16847.0 | 16776.0 | 16816.0 | 15785.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1513.0 | 2470.0 | 2749.0 | 2060.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422888.0 | 424822.0 | 416779.0 | 422437.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1698998.0 | 1688594.0 | 1613783.0 | 1602166.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 234334.0 | 228489.0 | 223667.0 | 230333.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 123679.0 | 118702.0 | 116461.0 | 122502.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $60.75, change $-0.1. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $57.32, change $-0.1. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.43 (Brent premium of $3.43). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$60.75
0.1
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$57.32
0.1
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.43
Brent premium of $3.43
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently experiencing a notable shift, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while supply from non-DoC countries is expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d. The supply-demand gap for DoC crude is forecasted at 42.4 mb/d, indicating a tightening market that may influence OPEC's production strategies. As the global economy stabilizes, key consumption centers like China and India are set to drive demand growth.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025 (+1.4 mb/d from 2024)
- OECD oil demand: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2025
- Non-OECD oil demand: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2025
- China's oil demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's oil demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size for DoC crude: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily driven by the OECD's slower growth compared to non-OECD regions
- Implications for OPEC: The tightening supply-demand balance may prompt OPEC to adjust production levels to stabilize prices and meet demand.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory: Expected to grow by 4.8% in 2025, maintaining its position as a key driver of global oil demand.
- India's growth story: Anticipated to grow by 6.5% in 2025, reflecting strong economic momentum and increasing energy needs.
- Americas' resilience: The US and Canada are expected to contribute significantly to non-DoC liquids production growth.
- Europe's challenges: Slower growth in OECD countries may limit their contribution to global oil demand, impacting overall market dynamics.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is projected to continue growing, with 1.4 mb/d increase expected in 2026.
- Risks and opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact supply chains and pricing.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Developments in major consuming countries, OPEC's production decisions, and global economic growth trends.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The significant growth forecast for India's oil demand at 6.5% in 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: Potential geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from non-OECD countries presents growth opportunities for OPEC.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the tightening supply-demand balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-30
Managed Money
15,743
Change: +4,383
0.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
235,605
Change: -9,543
12.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-305,858
Change: +7,474
-16.1% of OI
Open Interest
1,898,257
Change: 34,714
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-30
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,898,257 contracts (+34,714)
Managed Money Net Position: 15,743 contracts (0.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +4,383 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 235,605 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -305,858 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
52
Last Updated:
2026-01-06 00:05:46
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (8 articles)
- Crude Rallies as OPEC+ Keeps Output Levels Unchanged in Q1 Barchart
- Any Change to Venezuelan Oil Supply Less of a Driver for U.S. Treasurys — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela's Oil Won't Add Much to Rising Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Declines on Oversupply Worries After Maduro's Ouster — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Long-Term Stability in Venezuela Could Meaningfully Increase Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices likely to move higher on Venezuelan turmoil, ample supply to cap gains Reuters
- Oil Futures Open Year Lower on Oversupply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steady as Supply Glut Offsets Gulf Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.24
Daily:
-0.18 (-0.19%)
Weekly:
0.2 (0.2%)
US_10Y
4.16
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
0.05 (1.19%)
SP500
6902.05
Daily:
43.58 (0.64%)
Weekly:
-3.69 (-0.05%)
VIX
14.9
Daily:
0.39 (2.69%)
Weekly:
0.7 (4.93%)
GOLD
4478.6
Daily:
164.2 (3.81%)
Weekly:
153.5 (3.55%)
COPPER
6.07
Daily:
0.43 (7.59%)
Weekly:
0.58 (10.52%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.14
Closest Support:
$57.99
0.26% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.92
1.34% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.84
0.382
$57.99
Support
0.5
$58.92
Resistance
0.618
$59.86
0.786
$61.18
1.0
$62.87
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.02
1.618
$67.75
2.0
$70.76
2.618
$75.64
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.13
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-06 00:05:49
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.11%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | $58.19 | $56.71 | $59.67 |
| 2026-01-07 | $58.26 | $56.78 | $59.73 |
| 2026-01-08 | $58.28 | $56.8 | $59.76 |
| 2026-01-09 | $58.2 | $56.72 | $59.68 |
| 2026-01-10 | $58.16 | $56.68 | $59.63 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2026-01-06), reaching $58.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-06 and 2026-01-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil is evident, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $65.20/b. The recent price movements indicate potential support levels near $60.00/b for WTI, with resistance levels likely around $65.00/b. The Brent-WTI spread of $3.88/b reflects ongoing supply-demand dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities as market volatility persists. Traders should monitor the managed money net position, which is currently bullish and strengthening, indicating possible price support in the near term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decline in crude prices necessitates a reassessment of production planning and hedging strategies. With OECD commercial inventories rising by 6.0 mb, producers should consider the impact of inventory levels on pricing and their operational strategies. The bearish market sentiment could influence investment decisions and operational efficiency. Additionally, the slight decrease in production by DoC countries may provide some support, but overall, producers should remain cautious given the current market conditions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The current geopolitical risks and rising inventory levels may affect supply reliability. With crude imports declining and product exports increasing, procurement strategies should incorporate flexibility to mitigate supply chain risks. Consumers are advised to closely monitor market developments and consider hedging options to manage cost exposure effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by declining prices and rising inventories. The balance of supply and demand shows a slight tightening, but the overall outlook remains cautious. The global economic growth forecasts indicate stability, yet oil demand growth is modest at 1.3 mb/d for 2025. Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical developments and market positioning, as well as the implications of the Brent-WTI spread on pricing strategies moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.