Crude oil is reacting violently to geopolitical developments, yet remains stuck near $57–58 WTI, a level that reflects a market swimming in supply rather than starving for barrels. Venezuela may dominate the news cycle, but it currently produces less than 1 million barrels per day, representing under 1% of global supply, while global balances continue to point toward surplus conditions into 2026. One thing that 2025 taught us is that crude traders are trained to wait for the PROVE IT TO ME phase - headlines that historically moved the market $10 (as the Venezuelan headline would have done in years past), traders now are anticipating that all is normal until proven otherwise. Of course with a military action and removal of Maduro, this can change overnight. For now, 57.35 is the key bull/bear line and I expect it to be fought over. The chart looks weak, but the resilience at 57.35 over the last month gives bulls some hope. This week - all eyes are glued at that bull/bear line. Demand is still a concern and OPEC+ headlines will re-emerge later in the month I expect.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-08 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are currently hovering around $57–58 WTI, reflecting an oversupplied market despite geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Venezuela. With production from Venezuela below 1 million barrels per day and global balances indicating a surplus into 2026, traders are skeptical of significant price swings. The pivotal bull/bear line at $57.35 has shown resilience, but demand concerns and upcoming OPEC+ discussions may influence direction. Keep an eye on this level for potential volatility ahead!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$60.7
$1.06
WTI:
$57.13
$1.19
Spread:
$3.57
(Brent premium of $3.57)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
15,743
Weekly Change:
4,383
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$56.29
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.51
MA(20): $57.33
Current Price is 56.29, 9 day MA 57.51, 20 day MA 57.33
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3996
Signal: -0.4277
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.84
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.84 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 9,833
Avg (20d): 192,662
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 29.62
%D: 56.8
Stochastic %K: 29.62, %D: 56.8. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.51
+DI: 13.64
-DI: 22.02
ADX: 21.51 (+DI: 13.64, -DI: 22.02). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -70.38
Williams %R: -70.38 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 59.15
Middle: 57.33
Lower: 55.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 59.15, Middle: 57.33, Lower: 55.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13811.0 | 13827.0 | 13573.0 | 12987.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6339.0 | 4953.0 | 6926.0 | 6339.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4263.0 | 3440.0 | 3854.0 | 2845.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16909.0 | 16847.0 | 16857.0 | 16023.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2076.0 | 1513.0 | 3072.0 | 3494.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419056.0 | 422888.0 | 415601.0 | 428884.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1707349.0 | 1698998.0 | 1623360.0 | 1614505.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 242036.0 | 234334.0 | 231384.0 | 236490.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129273.0 | 123679.0 | 122867.0 | 126345.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $60.7, change $-1.06. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $57.13, change $-1.19. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.57 (Brent premium of $3.57). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$60.7
1.06
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$57.13
1.19
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.57
Brent premium of $3.57
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. The demand for crude from OPEC countries is expected to rise, albeit at a slower pace, reflecting regional consumption trends. As the global economy stabilizes, OPEC faces critical decisions regarding production adjustments to maintain market equilibrium.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025, +1.4% from 2024
- OECD oil demand: +0.1 mb/d in 2025
- Non-OECD oil demand: +1.2 mb/d in 2025
- China's oil demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's oil demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily non-OECD countries, particularly China and India
- Implications for OPEC: A need for strategic production adjustments to meet rising demand while managing price stability
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory: Expected to grow steadily, contributing significantly to global oil demand
- India's growth story: Projected to maintain robust growth, further increasing its share in global oil consumption
- Americas' resilience: The US continues to show strong export capabilities, balancing imports and contributing to global supply
- Europe's challenges: Facing stagnant demand growth, which may impact overall oil consumption trends
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Continued demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026
- Risks and opportunities: Geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could disrupt supply chains, while emerging markets present growth opportunities
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in OPEC production levels, global economic performance, and shifts in consumer behavior
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The projected increase in demand for DoC crude to 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Biggest risk factor: Potential geopolitical disruptions affecting oil supply
- Opportunity area: Expanding presence in non-OECD markets, particularly in Asia
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider gradual production increases to align with demand growth while monitoring market conditions closely
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-30
Managed Money
15,743
Change: +4,383
0.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
235,605
Change: -9,543
12.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-305,858
Change: +7,474
-16.1% of OI
Open Interest
1,898,257
Change: 34,714
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-30
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,898,257 contracts (+34,714)
Managed Money Net Position: 15,743 contracts (0.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +4,383 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 235,605 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -305,858 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
74
Last Updated:
2026-01-08 00:04:50
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (12 articles)
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Futures Fall After Trump Says Venezuela to Supply Oil to U.S. — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Crude Can Compete With Increased Output From Venezuela, PM Carney Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Needs Billions in Investment for Oil-Production Growth — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Rallies as OPEC+ Keeps Output Levels Unchanged in Q1 Barchart
- Venezuelan Oil Output Increase A Longer-Term Prospect — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Remains Contained Risk as Oil Market Focuses on Excess Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Any Change to Venezuelan Oil Supply Less of a Driver for U.S. Treasurys — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela's Oil Won't Add Much to Rising Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Declines on Oversupply Worries After Maduro's Ouster — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Long-Term Stability in Venezuela Could Meaningfully Increase Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices likely to move higher on Venezuelan turmoil, ample supply to cap gains Reuters
Demand (5 articles)
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Commodity Demand Helps Canada Reduce Reliance on Trade With U.S. — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Prices Retreat on Dollar Strength and Energy Demand Concerns Barchart
- Crude Prices Slip on Dollar Strength and Energy Demand Concerns Barchart
- China's Venezuelan Crude Imports Outlook Clouded by Political Uncertainty — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Russian Ruble Could Weaken as Oil Revenue And Foreign Currency Sales Fall — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Edges Lower on Prospects for Relief of Venezuela-Related Sanctions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Rallies on Rising Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Risk Premium Could Rise on Geopolitical Fallout of Maduro Capture — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Military Action Not a Reflection of Fundamental Shift in Foreign Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.72
Daily:
0.14 (0.14%)
Weekly:
0.44 (0.45%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.98%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.6%)
SP500
6920.93
Daily:
-23.89 (-0.34%)
Weekly:
75.43 (1.1%)
VIX
15.38
Daily:
0.63 (4.27%)
Weekly:
0.43 (2.88%)
GOLD
4441.1
Daily:
-41.1 (-0.92%)
Weekly:
115.5 (2.67%)
COPPER
5.87
Daily:
-0.14 (-2.4%)
Weekly:
0.24 (4.2%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$56.29
Closest Support:
$54.98
2.33% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$56.78
0.87% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
Support
0.236
$56.78
Resistance
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
0.618
$59.68
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$56.28
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-08 00:04:53
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.06%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | $56.25 | $54.69 | $57.81 |
| 2026-01-09 | $56.08 | $54.52 | $57.64 |
| 2026-01-10 | $56.16 | $54.6 | $57.72 |
| 2026-01-11 | $56.3 | $54.74 | $57.86 |
| 2026-01-12 | $56.34 | $54.78 | $57.9 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2026-01-08), reaching $56.25.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-08 and 2026-01-12.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bearish sentiment in the market, with the $65.20 average for the OPEC Reference Basket reflecting a significant drop. The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread suggests ongoing divergence in supply dynamics, which could present risks for traders looking for short-term opportunities. The current backwardation in the forward curves indicates that while immediate supply is healthy, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility as managed money positions strengthen, with a net position of 15,743 contracts indicating normal range activity. Key support levels can be established around the recent lows, while resistance could be seen at $63.95 (Brent) and $60.07 (WTI).
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decline in crude prices, averaging $60.07 for WTI, necessitates a reassessment of production planning and hedging strategies. The slight decrease in DoC crude production suggests balance in supply dynamics, yet the increase in OECD inventories (up 6.0 mb) could pressure prices further. Producers should consider adjusting output to align with the bearish market sentiment reflected in the $3.57 Brent-WTI spread, which highlights the need for strategic hedging to mitigate downside risks.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI trading around $60.07. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical factors and rising inventories may affect procurement strategies. With crude imports falling to 5.6 mb/d and exports rising to 4.2 mb/d, companies should evaluate their hedging options to manage costs effectively. The refining margins have improved, but ongoing geopolitical tensions could lead to unforeseen disruptions in supply chains.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting a bearish sentiment across various indicators. The fundamentals indicate a stable global economy with oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d in 2025. However, the increase in OECD inventories and a balanced supply-demand scenario could lead to downward price pressures. The ML forecasts support this outlook, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics as geopolitical risks continue to influence price movements and trader positioning remains relatively stable.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.