Crude oil is reacting violently to geopolitical developments, yet remains stuck near $57–58 WTI, a level that reflects a market swimming in supply rather than starving for barrels. Venezuela may dominate the news cycle, but it currently produces less than 1 million barrels per day, representing under 1% of global supply, while global balances continue to point toward surplus conditions into 2026. One thing that 2025 taught us is that crude traders are trained to wait for the PROVE IT TO ME phase - headlines that historically moved the market $10 (as the Venezuelan headline would have done in years past), traders now are anticipating that all is normal until proven otherwise. Of course with a military action and removal of Maduro, this can change overnight. For now, 57.35 is the key bull/bear line and I expect it to be fought over. The chart looks weak, but the resilience at 57.35 over the last month gives bulls some hope. This week - all eyes are glued at that bull/bear line. Demand is still a concern and OPEC+ headlines will re-emerge later in the month I expect.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-09 00:07
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are currently hovering around $57-$58 WTI, reflecting a market abundant in supply rather than scarcity. While geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran stir concerns, Venezuela’s output remains negligible at under 1% of global supply. Traders are adopting a “prove it to me” mentality, with $57.35 acting as a critical bull/bear line. OPEC+ headlines and demand concerns loom as key influences moving forward. The market's resilience at this level offers cautious optimism for bulls amidst prevailing bearish fundamentals.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$59.96
$0.74
WTI:
$55.99
$1.14
Spread:
$3.97
(Brent premium of $3.97)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
15,743
Weekly Change:
4,383
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.18
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.46
MA(20): $57.31
Current Price is 58.18, 9 day MA 57.46, 20 day MA 57.31
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3257
Signal: -0.4111
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.58
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.58 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 16,519
Avg (20d): 199,143
Ratio: 0.08
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 77.56
%D: 51.39
Stochastic %K: 77.56, %D: 51.39. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.78
+DI: 17.76
-DI: 20.75
ADX: 20.78 (+DI: 17.76, -DI: 20.75). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -22.44
Williams %R: -22.44 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 59.16
Middle: 57.31
Lower: 55.46
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 59.16, Middle: 57.31, Lower: 55.46
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13811.0 | 13827.0 | 13573.0 | 12987.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6339.0 | 4953.0 | 6926.0 | 6339.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4263.0 | 3440.0 | 3854.0 | 2845.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16909.0 | 16847.0 | 16857.0 | 16023.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2076.0 | 1513.0 | 3072.0 | 3494.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419056.0 | 422888.0 | 415601.0 | 428884.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1707349.0 | 1698998.0 | 1623360.0 | 1614505.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 242036.0 | 234334.0 | 231384.0 | 236490.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129273.0 | 123679.0 | 122867.0 | 126345.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $59.96, change $-0.74. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $55.99, change $-1.14. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.97 (Brent premium of $3.97). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$59.96
0.74
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$55.99
1.14
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.97
Brent premium of $3.97
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently facing a tightening supply-demand balance, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026. OPEC's crude production has seen a slight decline, raising concerns over meeting future demand. As geopolitical tensions and economic factors continue to influence the market, OPEC's strategic decisions will be crucial in navigating these challenges.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025, growing by +1.4 mb/d in 2026
- OECD oil demand: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2025
- Non-OECD oil demand: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2025
- China's oil demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's oil demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Demand for DoC crude is revised down by -0.1 mb/d
- Implications for OPEC: The slight decrease in demand for DoC crude may necessitate adjustments in OPEC's production strategies to maintain market stability.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains strong, with a forecast growth of 4.8% in 2025.
- India's growth story is robust, projected at 6.5% for 2025, highlighting its emerging market potential.
- The Americas show resilience, with significant crude exports from the US reaching an eight-month high of 4.2 mb/d.
- Europe faces challenges, with fluctuating crude imports and product availability impacting market dynamics.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with stable economic growth forecasts.
- Risks and opportunities: Geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations present risks, while emerging markets like India offer opportunities for growth.
- Market-moving factors to watch: OPEC's production decisions, changes in global economic conditions, and shifts in regional demand will be critical.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The slight downward revision in demand for DoC crude by -0.1 mb/d.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains.
- Opportunity area: India's growing demand presents a significant opportunity for OPEC producers.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the revised demand forecasts to maintain market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-12-30
Managed Money
15,743
Change: +4,383
0.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
235,605
Change: -9,543
12.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-305,858
Change: +7,474
-16.1% of OI
Open Interest
1,898,257
Change: 34,714
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-12-30
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,898,257 contracts (+34,714)
Managed Money Net Position: 15,743 contracts (0.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +4,383 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 235,605 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -305,858 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
84
Last Updated:
2026-01-09 00:06:37
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (10 articles)
- Oil prices gain on concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela, Iran Reuters
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Futures Fall After Trump Says Venezuela to Supply Oil to U.S. — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Crude Can Compete With Increased Output From Venezuela, PM Carney Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Needs Billions in Investment for Oil-Production Growth — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Rallies as OPEC+ Keeps Output Levels Unchanged in Q1 Barchart
- Venezuelan Oil Output Increase A Longer-Term Prospect — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Remains Contained Risk as Oil Market Focuses on Excess Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Any Change to Venezuelan Oil Supply Less of a Driver for U.S. Treasurys — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela's Oil Won't Add Much to Rising Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (7 articles)
- Crude Sharply Higher on Energy Demand Strength and Index Buying of Oil Futures Barchart
- Crude Rallies on Stronger Energy Demand and Index Buying of Crude Futures Barchart
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Commodity Demand Helps Canada Reduce Reliance on Trade With U.S. — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Prices Retreat on Dollar Strength and Energy Demand Concerns Barchart
- Crude Prices Slip on Dollar Strength and Energy Demand Concerns Barchart
- China's Venezuelan Crude Imports Outlook Clouded by Political Uncertainty — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- European defence stocks hit record high, dollar gains amid geopolitical events Reuters
- Russian Ruble Could Weaken as Oil Revenue And Foreign Currency Sales Fall — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Edges Lower on Prospects for Relief of Venezuela-Related Sanctions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Rallies on Rising Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Risk Premium Could Rise on Geopolitical Fallout of Maduro Capture — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Military Action Not a Reflection of Fundamental Shift in Foreign Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.93
Daily:
0.25 (0.26%)
Weekly:
0.51 (0.52%)
US_10Y
4.18
Daily:
0.05 (1.09%)
Weekly:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
SP500
6921.46
Daily:
0.53 (0.01%)
Weekly:
62.99 (0.92%)
VIX
15.45
Daily:
0.07 (0.46%)
Weekly:
0.94 (6.48%)
GOLD
4474.7
Daily:
25.4 (0.57%)
Weekly:
160.3 (3.72%)
COPPER
5.83
Daily:
0.02 (0.35%)
Weekly:
0.19 (3.36%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.18
Closest Support:
$57.89
0.5% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.78
1.03% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
Support
0.5
$58.78
Resistance
0.618
$59.68
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.19
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-09 00:06:40
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.32%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | $58.01 | $56.22 | $59.8 |
| 2026-01-10 | $58.18 | $56.39 | $59.97 |
| 2026-01-11 | $58.39 | $56.6 | $60.18 |
| 2026-01-12 | $58.19 | $56.4 | $59.98 |
| 2026-01-13 | $58.13 | $56.34 | $59.92 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.32% for the next trading day (2026-01-09), reaching $58.01.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-09 and 2026-01-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400, indicates potential downward pressure on prices. The recent price movements show a decline in the $65.20/b for the OPEC Reference Basket and $63.95/b for ICE Brent, suggesting a support level may be forming around these figures. Traders should be cautious of the risk factors stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory levels, particularly as the Brent-WTI spread narrows to $3.88/b. Opportunities may arise from short-term volatility, especially if managed money positions continue to shift. Watching for Fibonacci retracement levels could also provide insight into potential resistance levels for price recovery.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the balance of supply and demand indicating a slight decrease in demand for DoC crude, producers should evaluate their production planning strategies. The $60.07/b average for NYMEX WTI highlights the need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility. The increase in OECD commercial inventories, which rose by 6.0 mb, indicates a potential oversupply situation, which could further pressure prices. Market sentiment remains bearish, suggesting that producers should remain agile in their operations and consider adjusting their output accordingly to align with market conditions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices hover around $60.07/b for WTI and $63.95/b for Brent. The risk factors associated with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories could impact supply reliability. The recent increase in US crude exports to 4.2 mb/d suggests a tightening market that may affect procurement strategies. Additionally, consumers should monitor refining margins, which have seen improvements, particularly in middle distillates, as these can influence overall product costs moving forward.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bearish sentiment, with prices declining across major benchmarks. Key driving factors include stable global economic growth forecasts, a slight increase in global oil demand, and a notable rise in OECD commercial inventories. The positioning data reveals managed money's bearish stance, which could indicate potential market reversals. Analysts should focus on the implications of the narrowing Brent-WTI spread and the impact of geopolitical developments on supply dynamics. The overall outlook suggests that while demand remains steady, the market may face challenges due to inventory levels and geopolitical uncertainties.
Disclaimer: The insights provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.