Crude oil is reacting violently to geopolitical developments, yet remains stuck near $57–58 WTI, a level that reflects a market swimming in supply rather than starving for barrels. Venezuela may dominate the news cycle, but it currently produces less than 1 million barrels per day, representing under 1% of global supply, while global balances continue to point toward surplus conditions into 2026. One thing that 2025 taught us is that crude traders are trained to wait for the PROVE IT TO ME phase - headlines that historically moved the market $10 (as the Venezuelan headline would have done in years past), traders now are anticipating that all is normal until proven otherwise. Of course with a military action and removal of Maduro, this can change overnight. For now, 57.35 is the key bull/bear line and I expect it to be fought over. The chart looks weak, but the resilience at 57.35 over the last month gives bulls some hope. This week - all eyes are glued at that bull/bear line. Demand is still a concern and OPEC+ headlines will re-emerge later in the month I expect.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-10 00:07
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil remains caught in a $57–58 WTI range, reflecting a market oversupplied despite geopolitical tensions, notably from Venezuela, which produces less than 1% of global supply. Traders are in a "prove it to me" phase, waiting for substantial market shifts before reacting. With the key bull/bear line at 57.35, its resilience offers some bullish hope. OPEC+ developments and demand concerns loom, while the U.S. oil rig count has dropped, hinting at potential shifts in production dynamics ahead.
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**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- Current WTI range: $57–58
- Venezuela’s production: <1 million bpd
- U.S. oil rig count:
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$61.99
$2.03
WTI:
$57.76
$1.77
Spread:
$4.23
(Brent premium of $4.23)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
24,528
Weekly Change:
8,785
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.12
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.68
MA(20): $57.32
Current Price is 59.12, 9 day MA 57.68, 20 day MA 57.32
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1963
Signal: -0.3735
Days since crossover: 12
MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 55.5
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 55.5 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 334,134
Avg (20d): 218,905
Ratio: 1.53
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 83.79
%D: 56.45
Stochastic %K: 83.79, %D: 56.45. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.61
+DI: 21.6
-DI: 18.5
ADX: 19.61 (+DI: 21.6, -DI: 18.5). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -16.21
Williams %R: -16.21 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 59.24
Middle: 57.32
Lower: 55.4
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 59.24, Middle: 57.32, Lower: 55.4
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13811.0 | 13827.0 | 13573.0 | 12987.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6339.0 | 4953.0 | 6926.0 | 6339.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4263.0 | 3440.0 | 3854.0 | 2845.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16909.0 | 16847.0 | 16857.0 | 16023.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2076.0 | 1513.0 | 3072.0 | 3494.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419056.0 | 422888.0 | 415601.0 | 428884.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1707349.0 | 1698998.0 | 1623360.0 | 1614505.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 242036.0 | 234334.0 | 231384.0 | 236490.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129273.0 | 123679.0 | 122867.0 | 126345.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $61.99, change $+2.03. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $57.76, change $+1.77. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.23 (Brent premium of $4.23). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$61.99
2.03
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$57.76
1.77
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.23
Brent premium of $4.23
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by a projected global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d for 2025, with a notable split between OECD and non-OECD regions. While the demand for crude from OPEC countries is expected to rise, the overall supply from non-OPEC nations is also on an upward trajectory, leading to a tightening balance. This dynamic presents both challenges and opportunities for OPEC's production strategies moving forward.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World Oil Demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025, with a growth rate of +1.4 mb/d in 2026
- OECD Demand: 54.1 mb/d in 2025, with a growth rate of +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD Demand: 51.0 mb/d in 2025, with a growth rate of +1.2 mb/d
- China's Demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's Demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current Supply-Demand Gap: 42.4 mb/d for 2025
- Regions Driving Deficit: Non-OECD countries are expected to drive demand growth, while OECD demand remains stagnant.
- Implications for OPEC: The growing demand from non-OECD regions necessitates a careful calibration of OPEC's production levels to maintain market stability.
Regional Powerhouses
- China: Demand is projected to grow steadily, with a forecast of 4.8% in 2025, reflecting strong economic fundamentals.
- India: A robust growth story with a forecast of 6.5% in 2025, indicating increasing energy needs.
- Americas: Resilience in demand, particularly in the US, where crude exports are reaching new highs.
- Europe: Facing challenges with stagnant demand growth, requiring strategic adjustments in imports and refining operations.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 Outlook: Continued demand growth of +1.3 mb/d in 2025 and +1.4 mb/d in 2026, driven primarily by non-OECD countries.
- Risks: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns could impact demand forecasts.
- Opportunities: Increased demand from emerging markets presents a significant opportunity for OPEC to adjust production strategies accordingly.
- Market-Moving Factors: Watch for changes in refining margins and product flows, particularly from China and India.
Key Takeaways
- Most Surprising Data Point: The significant growth forecast for India's oil demand at 6.5% in 2025.
- Biggest Risk Factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and impact global oil prices.
- Opportunity Area: Expanding market share in non-OECD regions, particularly in Asia.
- Strategic Recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the rising demand from non-OECD countries while monitoring global economic conditions closely.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-06
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: 70,622
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-06
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,968,879 contracts (+70,622)
Managed Money Net Position: 24,528 contracts (1.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +8,785 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 223,120 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -293,886 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
73
Last Updated:
2026-01-10 00:06:25
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus Reuters
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Futures Fall After Trump Says Venezuela to Supply Oil to U.S. — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Crude Can Compete With Increased Output From Venezuela, PM Carney Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (8 articles)
- Crude Sharply Higher on Energy Demand Strength and Index Buying of Oil Futures Barchart
- Crude Rallies on Stronger Energy Demand and Index Buying of Crude Futures Barchart
- Canada Flips to Trade Deficit, Though Exports Beyond U.S. Jump — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Exports Buoyed By Precious Metals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Commodity Demand Helps Canada Reduce Reliance on Trade With U.S. — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Prices Retreat on Dollar Strength and Energy Demand Concerns Barchart
- Crude Prices Slip on Dollar Strength and Energy Demand Concerns Barchart
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- PRES TRUMP Q&A: NOT GOING TO NEED BACKSTOPS FOR OIL FIRMS IN VENEZUELA; TO HAVE LOT OF MONEY 'LEFT OVER;' RUSSIA/CHINA WOULD BE IN VENEZUELA IF NOT US Mace News
- Crude Oil Climbs on Geopolitical Concerns Trading Economics
- Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus Reuters
- Oil Rises Amid Prospects of Russia-Related Sanctions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises As Trump Said to Back Russia Sanctions Bill — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- European defence stocks hit record high, dollar gains amid geopolitical events Reuters
- Russian Ruble Could Weaken as Oil Revenue And Foreign Currency Sales Fall — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.13
Daily:
0.2 (0.2%)
Weekly:
0.86 (0.88%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.14%)
SP500
6966.28
Daily:
44.82 (0.65%)
Weekly:
64.23 (0.93%)
VIX
14.49
Daily:
-0.96 (-6.21%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-2.75%)
GOLD
4490.3
Daily:
40.6 (0.91%)
Weekly:
53.4 (1.2%)
COPPER
5.86
Daily:
0.11 (1.9%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.16%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.12
Closest Support:
$58.78
0.58% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.95% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.12
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-10 00:06:27
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.26%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | $59.27 | $57.5 | $61.05 |
| 2026-01-11 | $59.54 | $57.77 | $61.32 |
| 2026-01-12 | $59.42 | $57.65 | $61.19 |
| 2026-01-13 | $59.2 | $57.43 | $60.97 |
| 2026-01-14 | $59.12 | $57.35 | $60.89 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.26% for the next trading day (2026-01-10), reaching $59.27.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-10 and 2026-01-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bearish sentiment as the OPEC Reference Basket dropped to an average of $65.20/b. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed slightly to an average of $3.88/b, suggesting that while Brent remains at a premium, the market dynamics are shifting.
Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as hedge funds maintain a bearish stance, which could lead to further short-term price declines. The backwardation in the forward curves indicates short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on price discrepancies.
Key Fibonacci levels should be monitored closely as potential support and resistance levels emerge in the upcoming trading sessions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the supply-demand balance as global oil demand growth remains steady at around 1.3 mb/d for 2025. However, with a slight decrease in DoC crude demand, producers may need to adjust their production planning accordingly.
The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial stocks at 2,845 mb, indicate a surplus compared to historical averages, suggesting a need for strategic hedging strategies to mitigate price risks.
Market sentiment is currently bearish, which may affect operational decisions and pricing strategies in the near term.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude prices remain volatile, currently averaging $60.07/b for WTI. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread indicates a shift in supply dynamics that could affect procurement strategies.
Geopolitical risks and fluctuating inventory levels, especially with US crude imports falling to 5.6 mb/d, suggest that supply reliability risks could increase. It may be prudent to consider hedging against price spikes or shortages.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a mixed picture with bearish sentiment stemming from recent price declines, while fundamentals such as steady demand growth and improving refining margins indicate underlying strength.
The balance of supply and demand remains delicate, with a slight downward revision in DoC crude demand and a forecasted growth in non-DoC production. Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical developments and economic indicators to forecast potential ML-driven price shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.