Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” The most recent example was US using military force to remove Maduro - the market almost resulted in zero reaction. We have had a little more movement at the end of the week with Iranian protests which is causing some reignited concern on the Strait of Hormuz. This is certainly valid, but with the US interests and Saudi Arabia, even with a conflict a disruption would likely be limited to a few days. That said - we have roughly 25 mmbopd that moves through the constraint point - but with so much crude storage on water right now - I don’t see a big physical disruption. For now, the result is the same 57.35 is the bull/bear line - and while we have danced below it on concerns of demand (which is a BIG BIG BIG problem) and danced above it on concerns of geopolitical risks (imho I think most of the geopolitical risk premium has been removed), the result is the same 57.35 is the magnet and will likely move based on headlines. OPEC+ has most of their barrels back online so any demand growth will likely need to be met from non-OPEC+ sources. Those sources will need 80+ to meaningfully grow - question is when will demand determine that move???
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-11 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is navigating a peculiar market landscape, where geopolitical headlines that once triggered sharp price swings now prompt a "show me the problem" mentality. Recent Iranian protests have sparked concerns, but with robust crude storage and U.S.-Saudi alliances, major disruptions seem unlikely. The $57.35 mark remains pivotal, influenced by fluctuating demand and geopolitical risks. As OPEC+ barrels return, the race for non-OPEC+ supply growth will hinge on demand recovery, making the next moves crucial. Keep your eyes peeled for evolving headlines!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.34
$1.35
WTI:
$59.12
$1.36
Spread:
$4.22
(Brent premium of $4.22)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
24,528
Weekly Change:
8,785
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.12
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.68
MA(20): $57.32
Current Price is 59.12, 9 day MA 57.68, 20 day MA 57.32
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1963
Signal: -0.3735
Days since crossover: 12
MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 55.5
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 55.5 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 326,701
Avg (20d): 218,533
Ratio: 1.49
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 83.79
%D: 56.45
Stochastic %K: 83.79, %D: 56.45. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.61
+DI: 21.6
-DI: 18.5
ADX: 19.61 (+DI: 21.6, -DI: 18.5). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -16.21
Williams %R: -16.21 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 59.24
Middle: 57.32
Lower: 55.4
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 59.24, Middle: 57.32, Lower: 55.4
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13811.0 | 13827.0 | 13573.0 | 12987.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6339.0 | 4953.0 | 6926.0 | 6339.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4263.0 | 3440.0 | 3854.0 | 2845.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16909.0 | 16847.0 | 16857.0 | 16023.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2076.0 | 1513.0 | 3072.0 | 3494.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419056.0 | 422888.0 | 415601.0 | 428884.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1707349.0 | 1698998.0 | 1623360.0 | 1614505.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 242036.0 | 234334.0 | 231384.0 | 236490.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129273.0 | 123679.0 | 122867.0 | 126345.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $63.34, change $+1.35. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.12, change $+1.36. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.22 (Brent premium of $4.22). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.34
1.35
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.12
1.36
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.22
Brent premium of $4.22
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is experiencing a notable shift as global demand continues to grow, particularly in non-OECD regions. With a projected increase in oil demand of approximately 1.3 mb/d for 2025, the supply-demand balance is tightening, prompting OPEC to reassess production strategies. The current dynamics indicate a potential for increased volatility in crude prices as market fundamentals evolve.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD oil demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD oil demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's oil demand forecast: 4.8% growth in 2025
- India's oil demand forecast: 6.5% growth in 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily non-OECD countries, with significant contributions from China and India
- Implications for OPEC: The tightening gap suggests OPEC may need to adjust production levels to stabilize prices and meet rising demand.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.8% for 2025, indicating strong consumption patterns.
- India's growth story is compelling, with an expected increase of 6.5% in oil demand, positioning it as a key player in the global market.
- The Americas show resilience in oil consumption, supported by stable economic growth and increasing production capabilities.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand growth, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain market share.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by +1.3 mb/d in 2025 and +1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns that could impact demand forecasts.
- Opportunities lie in the expanding markets of China and India, which may drive higher consumption and investment in infrastructure.
- Market-moving factors to watch include OPEC's production decisions and global economic indicators.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: Non-OECD demand growth of +1.2 mb/d highlights the shifting consumption landscape.
- Biggest risk factor: Potential geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and impact prices.
- Opportunity area: Increased investment in refining capabilities in emerging markets like India and China.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with rising demand in non-OECD regions to maintain market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-06
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: 70,622
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-06
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,968,879 contracts (+70,622)
Managed Money Net Position: 24,528 contracts (1.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +8,785 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 223,120 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -293,886 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
59
Last Updated:
2026-01-11 00:04:38
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (5 articles)
- Crude Sharply Higher on Energy Demand Strength and Index Buying of Oil Futures Barchart
- Crude Rallies on Stronger Energy Demand and Index Buying of Crude Futures Barchart
- Canada Flips to Trade Deficit, Though Exports Beyond U.S. Jump — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Exports Buoyed By Precious Metals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- PRES TRUMP Q&A: NOT GOING TO NEED BACKSTOPS FOR OIL FIRMS IN VENEZUELA; TO HAVE LOT OF MONEY 'LEFT OVER;' RUSSIA/CHINA WOULD BE IN VENEZUELA IF NOT US Mace News
- Crude Oil Climbs on Geopolitical Concerns Trading Economics
- Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus Reuters
- Oil Rises Amid Prospects of Russia-Related Sanctions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises As Trump Said to Back Russia Sanctions Bill — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- European defence stocks hit record high, dollar gains amid geopolitical events Reuters
- Russian Ruble Could Weaken as Oil Revenue And Foreign Currency Sales Fall — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.14
Daily:
0.21 (0.21%)
Weekly:
0.87 (0.88%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.14%)
SP500
6966.28
Daily:
44.82 (0.65%)
Weekly:
64.23 (0.93%)
VIX
14.49
Daily:
-0.96 (-6.21%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-2.75%)
GOLD
4500.9
Daily:
51.2 (1.15%)
Weekly:
64.0 (1.44%)
COPPER
5.9
Daily:
0.16 (2.71%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.37%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.12
Closest Support:
$58.78
0.58% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.95% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.12
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-11 00:04:40
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.27%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | $59.28 | $57.5 | $61.05 |
| 2026-01-11 | $59.55 | $57.77 | $61.32 |
| 2026-01-12 | $59.42 | $57.65 | $61.2 |
| 2026-01-13 | $59.2 | $57.43 | $60.98 |
| 2026-01-14 | $59.12 | $57.35 | $60.9 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.27% for the next trading day (2026-01-10), reaching $59.28.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-10 and 2026-01-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is reflected in the $63.95 average price for ICE Brent and $60.07 for NYMEX WTI. The Fibonacci levels indicate potential support around these prices, while resistance may be observed near the recent highs. The Brent-WTI spread of $4.22 suggests that while there is a premium for Brent, the fundamentals indicate a weakening market structure, which could create short-term volatility and trading opportunities. Additionally, with hedge funds maintaining a bearish stance, traders should be cautious of potential price declines, especially if the market sentiment continues to trend negative.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The drop in crude oil prices to an average of $65.20 for the OPEC Reference Basket may necessitate reassessment of production planning and hedging strategies. With OECD commercial inventories rising and current levels significantly below the five-year average, producers should consider the impact of inventory levels on market prices. The bearish market sentiment could affect planning for future production, especially as demand forecasts remain stable. Producers should also monitor geopolitical risks that could affect supply reliability as they strategize their operations moving forward.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
As crude oil prices hover around $63.95 for Brent and $60.07 for WTI, consumers should anticipate potential input cost fluctuations in the near term. The recent improvements in refining margins, particularly for middle distillates, may provide some relief amidst lower crude prices. However, with geopolitical tensions and rising inventories, there are supply reliability risks that could impact procurement strategies. Consumers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and ensure stable supply chains.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The crude oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and fundamental balance. While global demand growth remains stable at approximately 1.3 mb/d, the supply side is also seeing growth, particularly from non-DoC countries. The technical indicators suggest a weakening market structure, compounded by a bearish stance from hedge funds. Analysts should focus on the implications of rising inventories and geopolitical risks as they assess potential outlook shifts. The current market dynamics may lead to further price adjustments, and close monitoring of sentiment and positioning will be crucial in forecasting future trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.