Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” The most recent example was US using military force to remove Maduro - the market almost resulted in zero reaction. We have had a little more movement at the end of the week with Iranian protests which is causing some reignited concern on the Strait of Hormuz. This is certainly valid, but with the US interests and Saudi Arabia, even with a conflict a disruption would likely be limited to a few days. That said - we have roughly 25 mmbopd that moves through the constraint point - but with so much crude storage on water right now - I don’t see a big physical disruption. For now, the result is the same 57.35 is the bull/bear line - and while we have danced below it on concerns of demand (which is a BIG BIG BIG problem) and danced above it on concerns of geopolitical risks (imho I think most of the geopolitical risk premium has been removed), the result is the same 57.35 is the magnet and will likely move based on headlines. OPEC+ has most of their barrels back online so any demand growth will likely need to be met from non-OPEC+ sources. Those sources will need 80+ to meaningfully grow - question is when will demand determine that move???
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-12 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a peculiar phase where geopolitical tensions, like Iranian protests, barely budge prices, signaling a market that demands substantial evidence of disruption before reacting. The key price level remains around $57.35, acting as a pivot influenced by both demand concerns and geopolitical risks. With OPEC+ production stabilized, any demand growth will hinge on non-OPEC+ sources needing prices above $80. As traders watch for headlines, the market's resilience amidst chaos is both fascinating and perplexing.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.34
$1.35
WTI:
$59.12
$1.36
Spread:
$4.22
(Brent premium of $4.22)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
24,528
Weekly Change:
8,785
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.18
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.8
MA(20): $57.4
Current Price is 59.18, 9 day MA 57.8, 20 day MA 57.4
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0616
Signal: -0.3111
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 55.74
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 55.74 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 30,888
Avg (20d): 206,109
Ratio: 0.15
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 84.65
%D: 77.52
Stochastic %K: 84.65, %D: 77.52. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 18.79
+DI: 20.6
-DI: 17.52
ADX: 18.79 (+DI: 20.6, -DI: 17.52). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -15.35
Williams %R: -15.35 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 59.49
Middle: 57.4
Lower: 55.32
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 59.49, Middle: 57.4, Lower: 55.32
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13811.0 | 13827.0 | 13573.0 | 12987.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6339.0 | 4953.0 | 6926.0 | 6339.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4263.0 | 3440.0 | 3854.0 | 2845.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16909.0 | 16847.0 | 16857.0 | 16023.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2076.0 | 1513.0 | 3072.0 | 3494.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419056.0 | 422888.0 | 415601.0 | 428884.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1707349.0 | 1698998.0 | 1623360.0 | 1614505.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 242036.0 | 234334.0 | 231384.0 | 236490.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129273.0 | 123679.0 | 122867.0 | 126345.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $63.34, change $+1.35. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.12, change $+1.36. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.22 (Brent premium of $4.22). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.34
1.35
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.12
1.36
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.22
Brent premium of $4.22
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently facing a tightening supply-demand balance, with global oil demand projected to grow by +1.3 mb/d in 2025. Despite this, OPEC's crude production has seen a slight decrease, leading to a demand for DoC crude at 42.4 mb/d in 2025. The overall economic growth remains stable, supporting the demand outlook for oil in the coming years.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025
- OECD oil demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD oil demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's oil demand growth: 4.8% in 2025
- India's oil demand growth: 6.5% in 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d demand vs 62.7 mb/d supply = 20.3 mb/d surplus
- Regions driving the surplus: Non-DoC countries, primarily the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina
- Implications for OPEC production decisions: OPEC may consider adjusting production levels to align with the tightening demand forecast.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecasted growth of +4.8% in 2025.
- India's growth story is strong, projected at +6.5% in 2025, indicating a rising consumption trend.
- The Americas show resilience, with significant contributions from the US and Brazil in non-DoC production.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand growth, necessitating strategic adjustments in imports and refining operations.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook indicates stable global economic growth at 3.0% and 3.1%, supporting oil demand growth.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions affecting production and refining.
- Market-moving factors to watch: OPEC production decisions, US shale output, and global economic indicators.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The demand for DoC crude is revised down to 42.4 mb/d for 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from India and China presents growth opportunities for OPEC.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to better align with the evolving demand landscape.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-06
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: 70,622
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-06
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,968,879 contracts (+70,622)
Managed Money Net Position: 24,528 contracts (1.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +8,785 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 223,120 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -293,886 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
50
Last Updated:
2026-01-12 00:04:30
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (5 articles)
- China's Stockpiling Seen as Key Source of Demand in 2026 — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Sharply Higher on Energy Demand Strength and Index Buying of Oil Futures Barchart
- Crude Rallies on Stronger Energy Demand and Index Buying of Crude Futures Barchart
- Canada Flips to Trade Deficit, Though Exports Beyond U.S. Jump — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Exports Buoyed By Precious Metals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- PRES TRUMP Q&A: NOT GOING TO NEED BACKSTOPS FOR OIL FIRMS IN VENEZUELA; TO HAVE LOT OF MONEY 'LEFT OVER;' RUSSIA/CHINA WOULD BE IN VENEZUELA IF NOT US Mace News
- Crude Oil Climbs on Geopolitical Concerns Trading Economics
- Oil Gains Further With Focus on Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus Reuters
- Oil Rises Amid Prospects of Russia-Related Sanctions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises As Trump Said to Back Russia Sanctions Bill — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- European defence stocks hit record high, dollar gains amid geopolitical events Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.03
Daily:
-0.1 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
0.44 (0.45%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.14%)
SP500
6966.28
Daily:
44.82 (0.65%)
Weekly:
64.23 (0.93%)
VIX
14.49
Daily:
-0.96 (-6.21%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-2.75%)
GOLD
4578.0
Daily:
87.7 (1.95%)
Weekly:
95.8 (2.14%)
COPPER
5.99
Daily:
0.14 (2.35%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.29%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.18
Closest Support:
$58.78
0.68% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.84% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.12
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-12 00:04:34
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.26%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | $59.27 | $57.5 | $61.05 |
| 2026-01-11 | $59.54 | $57.76 | $61.31 |
| 2026-01-12 | $59.42 | $57.65 | $61.19 |
| 2026-01-13 | $59.2 | $57.43 | $60.97 |
| 2026-01-14 | $59.12 | $57.35 | $60.89 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.26% for the next trading day (2026-01-10), reaching $59.27.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-10 and 2026-01-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Given the recent bearish sentiment in the market, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $65.20/b, traders should be cautious. The support level for WTI is around $60.00/b, while resistance can be seen near $64.00/b. The Brent-WTI spread at $3.88/b indicates a slight narrowing, suggesting that traders may want to monitor this for potential arbitrage opportunities. Volatility is expected to remain elevated, particularly as geopolitical risks from Iran and Venezuela could impact supply dynamics. Look for short-term trading opportunities, but remain vigilant about potential reversals if managed money positions shift significantly.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the supply-demand balance as global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. However, with OECD demand growth being minimal, focus should shift towards non-OECD markets. Inventory levels have increased, with OECD commercial stocks rising to 2,845 mb. This suggests that producers may need to adjust production plans to avoid oversupply. Hedging strategies should be revisited in light of the bearish market sentiment and potential price volatility. The current market dynamics indicate that maintaining flexibility in production will be crucial.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The recent decline in crude prices may provide a temporary respite, but geopolitical risks could disrupt supply reliability. With US crude imports falling to 5.6 mb/d and exports reaching an eight-month high, consumers should consider strategies for procurement that account for these dynamics. Additionally, the risks associated with inventory levels and refining margins should be monitored closely, especially with refinery margins improving amid lower crude prices. Establishing hedging mechanisms could mitigate the impact of sudden price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, as indicated by the recent price declines across major benchmarks. Key driving factors include stable global economic growth forecasts, but with differing impacts across regions. The balance between supply and demand remains delicate, especially with the non-DoC liquids production forecasted to grow. Analysts should closely watch the positioning of managed money, which is currently bullish but could shift quickly. The geopolitical landscape, particularly involving Iran and Venezuela, adds another layer of complexity to the outlook. Overall, the market sentiment is mixed, and potential outlook shifts should be anticipated based on upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical developments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.