Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” The most recent example was US using military force to remove Maduro - the market almost resulted in zero reaction. We have had a little more movement at the end of the week with Iranian protests which is causing some reignited concern on the Strait of Hormuz. This is certainly valid, but with the US interests and Saudi Arabia, even with a conflict a disruption would likely be limited to a few days. That said - we have roughly 25 mmbopd that moves through the constraint point - but with so much crude storage on water right now - I don’t see a big physical disruption. For now, the result is the same 57.35 is the bull/bear line - and while we have danced below it on concerns of demand (which is a BIG BIG BIG problem) and danced above it on concerns of geopolitical risks (imho I think most of the geopolitical risk premium has been removed), the result is the same 57.35 is the magnet and will likely move based on headlines. OPEC+ has most of their barrels back online so any demand growth will likely need to be met from non-OPEC+ sources. Those sources will need 80+ to meaningfully grow - question is when will demand determine that move???
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-13 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a curious crossroads where historical headlines barely shift market sentiment. While geopolitical tensions, particularly from Iran and Venezuela, might stir concern, the market remains resilient, eyeing the $57.35 mark as a pivotal line. With OPEC+ barrels back online, demand growth hinges on non-OPEC sources needing prices above $80 to flourish. As the market dances between risk and demand, traders are advised to stay alert to potential shifts that could impact future pricing. Remember, it's a waiting game!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.34
$1.35
WTI:
$59.12
$1.36
Spread:
$4.22
(Brent premium of $4.22)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
24,528
Weekly Change:
8,785
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$59.76
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $57.86
MA(20): $57.43
Current Price is 59.76, 9 day MA 57.86, 20 day MA 57.43
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0153
Signal: -0.3019
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.91
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,197
Avg (20d): 206,483
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 94.56
%D: 80.82
Stochastic %K: 94.56, %D: 80.82. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 18.93
+DI: 21.74
-DI: 17.76
ADX: 18.93 (+DI: 21.74, -DI: 17.76). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -5.44
Williams %R: -5.44 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 59.63
Middle: 57.43
Lower: 55.23
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 59.63, Middle: 57.43, Lower: 55.23
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13811.0 | 13827.0 | 13573.0 | 12987.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6339.0 | 4953.0 | 6926.0 | 6339.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4263.0 | 3440.0 | 3854.0 | 2845.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16909.0 | 16847.0 | 16857.0 | 16023.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2076.0 | 1513.0 | 3072.0 | 3494.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419056.0 | 422888.0 | 415601.0 | 428884.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1707349.0 | 1698998.0 | 1623360.0 | 1614505.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 242036.0 | 234334.0 | 231384.0 | 236490.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129273.0 | 123679.0 | 122867.0 | 126345.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $63.34, change $+1.35. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.12, change $+1.36. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.22 (Brent premium of $4.22). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.34
1.35
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.12
1.36
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.22
Brent premium of $4.22
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently experiencing a delicate balance as global demand continues to grow while supply faces challenges. In 2025, world oil demand is projected to reach 105.1 mb/d, with non-OECD countries driving most of this growth. OPEC's production decisions will be crucial in addressing the emerging supply-demand gap, particularly as crude prices have shown volatility in recent months.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World Demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD Demand: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD Demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China Demand Growth: 4.8% for 2025
- India Demand Growth: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current Gap Size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions Driving Deficit: Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by +0.9 mb/d
- Implications for OPEC: The need for strategic production adjustments to maintain market stability and price support.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's Demand Trajectory: Expected to grow by +4.8% in 2025, indicating robust consumption patterns.
- India's Growth Story: Projected demand increase of +6.5% in 2025, highlighting its emerging market potential.
- Americas' Resilience: US crude exports reached an eight-month high, showcasing strong market dynamics.
- Europe's Challenges: Facing stagnation in demand growth, with reliance on imports from non-OECD regions.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 Outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by +1.3 mb/d in 2025 and +1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks and Opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact supply chains.
- Market-Moving Factors: Watch for changes in OPEC production levels and shifts in global economic growth forecasts.
Key Takeaways
- Most Surprising Data Point: Non-DoC liquids production growth forecast revised up by +0.1 mb/d.
- Biggest Risk Factor: The potential for geopolitical disruptions affecting oil supply.
- Opportunity Area: Increased demand from India and China presents significant market opportunities.
- Strategic Recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with demand forecasts and stabilize prices.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-06
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: 70,622
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-06
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,968,879 contracts (+70,622)
Managed Money Net Position: 24,528 contracts (1.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +8,785 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 223,120 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -293,886 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
44
Last Updated:
2026-01-13 00:04:48
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Climb on Dollar Weakness and Supply Risks Barchart
- U.S. Oil Rig Count Falls by 3 to 409 — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Oil Slips as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
- PRES TRUMP Q&A: NOT GOING TO NEED BACKSTOPS FOR OIL FIRMS IN VENEZUELA; TO HAVE LOT OF MONEY 'LEFT OVER;' RUSSIA/CHINA WOULD BE IN VENEZUELA IF NOT US Mace News
- Oil Makes Weekly Gains in Geopolitically Driven Trade — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Climbs on Geopolitical Concerns Trading Economics
- Oil Futures Add to Gains on Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains Further With Focus on Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.96
Daily:
-0.17 (-0.17%)
Weekly:
0.38 (0.39%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.02 (0.38%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.19%)
SP500
6977.27
Daily:
10.99 (0.16%)
Weekly:
32.45 (0.47%)
VIX
15.12
Daily:
0.63 (4.35%)
Weekly:
0.37 (2.51%)
GOLD
4606.6
Daily:
116.3 (2.59%)
Weekly:
124.4 (2.78%)
COPPER
6.02
Daily:
0.17 (2.88%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.22%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.76
Closest Support:
$59.68
0.13% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.96
2.01% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
0.618
$59.68
Support
0.786
$60.96
Resistance
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.76
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-13 00:04:50
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.45%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | $60.03 | $58.26 | $61.8 |
| 2026-01-14 | $59.93 | $58.16 | $61.7 |
| 2026-01-15 | $59.71 | $57.95 | $61.48 |
| 2026-01-16 | $59.58 | $57.81 | $61.35 |
| 2026-01-17 | $59.51 | $57.74 | $61.28 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.45% for the next trading day (2026-01-13), reaching $60.03.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-13 and 2026-01-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bullish with a sentiment score of +0.750, indicating a potential for upward price movement in the short term. The $63.34 Brent and $59.12 WTI prices suggest a support level around $60 for WTI, while resistance may be seen at previous highs near $66. The Brent-WTI spread of $4.22 reflects ongoing disparities in supply/demand dynamics, which could present trading opportunities. Traders should monitor the geopolitical risks that may impact prices, as well as the managed money positioning which shows a bullish trend, potentially leading to volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The global oil demand growth forecast remains stable at about 1.3 mb/d for 2025, which is beneficial for production planning. However, the decline in crude production by OPEC indicates potential supply constraints. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, especially given the current inventory levels which are below historical averages. The average price of $60.07 for WTI suggests a need for cost management in operations to maintain profitability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With the potential for increased input costs due to the current WTI price of $59.12 and Brent at $63.34, consumers should prepare for price fluctuations. The decline in US crude imports may also impact supply reliability, especially as geopolitical tensions persist. Given the improved refining margins in various regions, refineries may find opportunities for profitability, but should remain cautious of inventory levels which are lower than historical averages.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bullish sentiment driven by stable global economic growth and demand forecasts. Key factors include the steady growth in non-OECD oil demand and the decline in OPEC production, which may tighten supply. The geopolitical landscape remains a concern, influencing market stability. Analysts should monitor the managed money positioning which indicates a strengthening bullish trend, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.