Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” The most recent example was US using military force to remove Maduro - the market almost resulted in zero reaction. We have had a little more movement at the end of the week with Iranian protests which is causing some reignited concern on the Strait of Hormuz. This is certainly valid, but with the US interests and Saudi Arabia, even with a conflict a disruption would likely be limited to a few days. That said - we have roughly 25 mmbopd that moves through the constraint point - but with so much crude storage on water right now - I don’t see a big physical disruption. For now, the result is the same 57.35 is the bull/bear line - and while we have danced below it on concerns of demand (which is a BIG BIG BIG problem) and danced above it on concerns of geopolitical risks (imho I think most of the geopolitical risk premium has been removed), the result is the same 57.35 is the magnet and will likely move based on headlines. OPEC+ has most of their barrels back online so any demand growth will likely need to be met from non-OPEC+ sources. Those sources will need 80+ to meaningfully grow - question is when will demand determine that move??? Iran US tension is dominating the headlines pushing WTI to the next level up at 61.40. Stalking here could point back to 57.35, but a break above can lead to mid 60s
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-14 00:06
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself at a historical crossroads, with traders now demanding concrete evidence of disruption before reacting to headlines. Despite geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran, the market is anchored at the $57.35 mark, oscillating between demand concerns and geopolitical risks. With OPEC+ barrels back online, any demand growth hinges on non-OPEC sources needing prices above $80. The current resistance level is $61.56, and a break could push prices into the mid-60s. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments and storage levels for potential volatility.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.87
$0.53
WTI:
$59.5
$0.38
Spread:
$4.37
(Brent premium of $4.37)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
24,528
Weekly Change:
8,785
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$60.99
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $58.17
MA(20): $57.6
Current Price is 60.99, 9 day MA 58.17, 20 day MA 57.6
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.2088
Signal: -0.2031
Days since crossover: 14
MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 62.23
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 62.23 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,845
Avg (20d): 211,360
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 96.14
%D: 90.02
Stochastic %K: 96.14, %D: 90.02. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.09
+DI: 24.98
-DI: 15.98
ADX: 19.09 (+DI: 24.98, -DI: 15.98). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -3.86
Williams %R: -3.86 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 60.24
Middle: 57.6
Lower: 54.95
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 60.24, Middle: 57.6, Lower: 54.95
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13811.0 | 13827.0 | 13573.0 | 12987.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6339.0 | 4953.0 | 6926.0 | 6339.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4263.0 | 3440.0 | 3854.0 | 2845.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16909.0 | 16847.0 | 16857.0 | 16023.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2076.0 | 1513.0 | 3072.0 | 3494.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419056.0 | 422888.0 | 415601.0 | 428884.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1707349.0 | 1698998.0 | 1623360.0 | 1614505.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 242036.0 | 234334.0 | 231384.0 | 236490.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129273.0 | 123679.0 | 122867.0 | 126345.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $63.87, change $+0.53. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.5, change $+0.38. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.37 (Brent premium of $4.37). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.87
0.53
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.5
0.38
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.37
Brent premium of $4.37
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently facing a tightening supply-demand balance as global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions. OPEC's crude production has seen a slight decline, impacting the overall supply landscape. This scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for OPEC's production strategies moving forward.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World Oil Demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025 (+1.4 mb/d y-o-y)
- OECD Demand: 42.4 mb/d in 2025 (+0.3 mb/d y-o-y)
- Non-OECD Demand: 62.7 mb/d in 2025 (+1.2 mb/d y-o-y)
- China's Demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's Demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current Gap Size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions Driving Deficit: Non-OECD countries, particularly China and India
- Implications for OPEC: The need to adjust production levels to meet rising demand and stabilize market prices
Regional Powerhouses
- China's Demand Trajectory: Expected to grow by 4.8% in 2025, indicating strong recovery and consumption patterns.
- India's Growth Story: Projected demand growth of 6.5% in 2025, highlighting its increasing role in the global oil market.
- Americas' Resilience: The US remains a significant player with stable production and export levels, balancing imports and exports effectively.
- Europe's Challenges: Facing slower growth and reliance on imports, particularly from non-OECD countries.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 Outlook: Continued demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with a focus on non-OECD regions.
- Risks and Opportunities: Geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact supply chains and pricing.
- Market-Moving Factors: Watch for changes in production levels from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, as well as shifts in global economic growth rates.
Key Takeaways
- Most Surprising Data Point: Non-OECD demand growth outpacing OECD, indicating a shift in consumption patterns.
- Biggest Risk Factor: Potential geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains.
- Opportunity Area: Increased investment in non-OECD regions, particularly India and China.
- Strategic Recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production strategies to align with the rising demand from non-OECD countries.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-06
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: 70,622
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-06
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,968,879 contracts (+70,622)
Managed Money Net Position: 24,528 contracts (1.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +8,785 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 223,120 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -293,886 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
40
Last Updated:
2026-01-14 00:06:04
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Climb on Dollar Weakness and Supply Risks Barchart
- Venezuela's 'Proven' Oil Reserves Raises Questions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Geopolitical Risks Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
- Oil May Trend Lower, Though Geopolitical Risks Remain — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.17
Daily:
0.31 (0.31%)
Weekly:
0.49 (0.49%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.38%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.8%)
SP500
6963.74
Daily:
-13.53 (-0.19%)
Weekly:
42.81 (0.62%)
VIX
15.98
Daily:
0.86 (5.69%)
Weekly:
0.6 (3.9%)
GOLD
4637.1
Daily:
32.8 (0.71%)
Weekly:
187.8 (4.22%)
COPPER
6.13
Daily:
0.15 (2.45%)
Weekly:
0.32 (5.55%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.99
Closest Support:
$60.96
0.05% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$62.59
2.62% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
0.618
$59.68
0.786
$60.96
Support
1.0
$62.59
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$60.99
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-14 00:06:07
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.16%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | $60.89 | $59.05 | $62.73 |
| 2026-01-15 | $60.72 | $58.89 | $62.56 |
| 2026-01-16 | $60.64 | $58.8 | $62.47 |
| 2026-01-17 | $60.44 | $58.6 | $62.28 |
| 2026-01-18 | $60.38 | $58.54 | $62.21 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2026-01-14), reaching $60.89.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-14 and 2026-01-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market has shown bearish trends with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $65.20/b. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $4.37, indicating a neutral market sentiment influenced by supply dynamics.
Despite the bearish price movements, the forward curves remaining in backwardation signal bullish physical oil market fundamentals, suggesting potential short-term opportunities amidst volatility. Traders should monitor the $63.95 level for Brent and $60.07 for WTI as key support/resistance thresholds.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the recent inventory levels, with OECD commercial stocks rising by 6.0 mb to a total of 2,845 mb. This indicates a balance in supply and demand, necessitating careful production planning to avoid oversupply.
The bearish market sentiment, reflected in the CFTC positioning where Managed Money holds a net position of 24,528 contracts, suggests that producers may want to enhance their hedging strategies to mitigate risks from potential price declines.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as the market navigates through geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude prices. The current price for WTI is $59.50, and Brent is at $63.87, indicating possible bearish trends affecting procurement strategies.
With the inventory levels showing a slight increase, there may be balance in supply reliability. However, consumers must remain vigilant about supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical uncertainties and refining capacity constraints.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bearish phase with significant price declines across benchmarks. The OPEC narrative indicates a stable global economic growth forecast, yet oil demand growth remains modest at 1.3 mb/d for 2025. This suggests a balance between supply and demand dynamics.
Key driving factors affecting market sentiment include bearish positioning by traders, reflected in the CFTC data, and bullish fundamentals indicated by backwardation in forward curves. Analysts should closely monitor these trends for potential outlook shifts as geopolitical risks continue to evolve.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific investment guidance.