Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” The most recent example was US using military force to remove Maduro - the market almost resulted in zero reaction. We have had a little more movement at the end of the week with Iranian protests which is causing some reignited concern on the Strait of Hormuz. This is certainly valid, but with the US interests and Saudi Arabia, even with a conflict a disruption would likely be limited to a few days. That said - we have roughly 25 mmbopd that moves through the constraint point - but with so much crude storage on water right now - I don’t see a big physical disruption. For now, the result is the same 57.35 is the bull/bear line - and while we have danced below it on concerns of demand (which is a BIG BIG BIG problem) and danced above it on concerns of geopolitical risks (imho I think most of the geopolitical risk premium has been removed), the result is the same 57.35 is the magnet and will likely move based on headlines. OPEC+ has most of their barrels back online so any demand growth will likely need to be met from non-OPEC+ sources. Those sources will need 80+ to meaningfully grow - question is when will demand determine that move??? Iran US tension is dominating the headlines pushing WTI to the next level up at 61.64. After breaking 61.64, crude retreated back below as concerns on demand re-emerge as some of the aggressive talk on Iran is being dialed back….that said there are warnings to evacuate the Qatar airbase as protests intensify.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-15 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a peculiar spot, with traders now demanding tangible problems before reacting to geopolitical tensions. Recent unrest in Iran has raised concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, yet the market remains anchored around $57.35, largely unaffected by U.S. military actions. With OPEC+ production back online, demand must drive prices above $80 for growth. As attention shifts back to demand fears, traders should watch for key levels around $59.19 and potential volatility from evolving geopolitical narratives.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$65.47
$1.6
WTI:
$61.15
$1.65
Spread:
$4.32
(Brent premium of $4.32)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
24,528
Weekly Change:
8,785
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$60.04
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $58.48
MA(20): $57.76
Current Price is 60.04, 9 day MA 58.48, 20 day MA 57.76
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3323
Signal: -0.094
Days since crossover: 15
MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.18
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.18 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 7,582
Avg (20d): 220,191
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 74.56
%D: 86.2
Stochastic %K: 74.56, %D: 86.2. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.64
+DI: 24.48
-DI: 14.87
ADX: 19.64 (+DI: 24.48, -DI: 14.87). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -25.44
Williams %R: -25.44 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 60.63
Middle: 57.76
Lower: 54.9
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 60.63, Middle: 57.76, Lower: 54.9
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.47, change $+1.6. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $61.15, change $+1.65. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.32 (Brent premium of $4.32). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$65.47
1.6
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$61.15
1.65
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.32
Brent premium of $4.32
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently facing a tightening supply-demand balance, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. Non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, are driving this demand growth, while OPEC production decisions will be crucial in addressing the emerging supply gap. The overall economic growth remains stable, supporting oil consumption in key regions.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World Oil Demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025 (+1.4 mb/d from 2024)
- OECD Demand: 62.7 mb/d in 2025 (+0.1 mb/d)
- Non-OECD Demand: 42.4 mb/d in 2025 (+1.2 mb/d)
- China's Demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's Demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current Gap Size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions Driving Deficit: Non-OECD countries, especially China and India
- Implications for OPEC: OPEC may need to adjust production levels to meet the rising demand and address the supply gap.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's Demand Trajectory: Expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 4.8% in 2025.
- India's Growth Story: Projected to maintain a robust growth rate of 6.5% in 2025, contributing to overall demand.
- Americas' Resilience: The US is expected to maintain steady demand amidst fluctuating supply dynamics.
- Europe's Challenges: Facing stagnant growth, with demand remaining flat compared to previous years.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 Outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with stable economic growth supporting this trend.
- Risks and Opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact supply chains and demand.
- Market-Moving Factors to Watch: OPEC production decisions, global economic performance, and regional consumption trends.
Key Takeaways
- Most Surprising Data Point: Non-OECD demand growth significantly outpacing OECD growth.
- Biggest Risk Factor: Geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply and pricing stability.
- Opportunity Area: Increased investment in refining capacities in Asia to meet growing demand.
- Strategic Recommendation: OPEC should consider proactive adjustments to production levels to balance the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-06
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: 70,622
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-06
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,968,879 contracts (+70,622)
Managed Money Net Position: 24,528 contracts (1.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +8,785 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 223,120 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -293,886 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
59
Last Updated:
2026-01-15 00:04:26
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Analysts Call For Potential Record Ethanol Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Oil Seen Only a Small Risk to Canadian Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Iran Supply Disruptions Fears After U.S. Tariffs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Climb on Dollar Weakness and Supply Risks Barchart
- Venezuela's 'Proven' Oil Reserves Raises Questions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Geopolitical Risk Pushes Crude Oil Prices Higher Barchart
- Geopolitical Risks Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Rises Amid Middle East Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
- Oil May Trend Lower, Though Geopolitical Risks Remain — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.18
Daily:
0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly:
0.25 (0.25%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.74%)
Weekly:
-0.04 (-1.03%)
SP500
6926.6
Daily:
-37.14 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
5.14 (0.07%)
VIX
16.75
Daily:
0.77 (4.82%)
Weekly:
1.3 (8.41%)
GOLD
4598.6
Daily:
9.4 (0.2%)
Weekly:
148.9 (3.35%)
COPPER
5.95
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
0.21 (3.61%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.04
Closest Support:
$59.68
0.6% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.96
1.53% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
0.618
$59.68
Support
0.786
$60.96
Resistance
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$60.05
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-15 00:04:29
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.28%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | $59.88 | $58.0 | $61.77 |
| 2026-01-16 | $59.76 | $57.87 | $61.64 |
| 2026-01-17 | $59.52 | $57.64 | $61.41 |
| 2026-01-18 | $59.57 | $57.68 | $61.45 |
| 2026-01-19 | $59.62 | $57.74 | $61.51 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.28% for the next trading day (2026-01-15), reaching $59.88.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-15 and 2026-01-19.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $65.20/b. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread indicates a slight narrowing, which may reflect a convergence in supply-demand dynamics. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the overall bearish positioning of hedge funds and other money managers, which could lead to downward price pressure.
Support levels are likely forming around the $60/b mark for WTI, while resistance can be seen near $65/b. Given the backwardation in the forward curves, short-term opportunities may arise from price fluctuations, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate or if inventory levels shift unexpectedly.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the current average crude oil price at $60.07/b, producers should evaluate their hedging strategies carefully, particularly in light of the bearish market sentiment and decreasing production from OPEC countries. The slight increase in OECD commercial inventories indicates a need for cautious production planning to avoid oversupply.
Additionally, the balance of supply and demand suggests that while demand for DoC crude is projected to increase, it may not offset the overall bearish sentiment in the market. Producers should also monitor refining margins, which have improved, as this could indicate better profitability for refined products and influence production decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices hover around $60/b and $63.95/b, respectively. The risk factors associated with geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could impact supply reliability, necessitating strategic procurement planning.
The recent rise in product exports from the US and the improved refining margins indicate that while crude prices may be lower, the availability of refined products may be more favorable. Consumers should consider hedging against potential price spikes driven by political instability or unexpected inventory changes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture with bearish sentiment dominating due to declining prices across benchmarks. Key driving factors include stable global economic growth, which is projected at 3.0%, but the balance of supply and demand suggests a potential oversupply situation with rising inventories and a slight decrease in OPEC production.
The positioning data from the CFTC indicates that managed money traders are maintaining a bearish stance, which could signal further downward price movements. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and refining margins, as these could shift market dynamics rapidly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for personalized guidance.