Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” The most recent example was US using military force to remove Maduro - the market almost resulted in zero reaction. We have had a little more movement at the end of the week with Iranian protests which is causing some reignited concern on the Strait of Hormuz. This is certainly valid, but with the US interests and Saudi Arabia, even with a conflict a disruption would likely be limited to a few days. That said - we have roughly 25 mmbopd that moves through the constraint point - but with so much crude storage on water right now - I don’t see a big physical disruption. For now, the result is the same 57.35 is the bull/bear line - and while we have danced below it on concerns of demand (which is a BIG BIG BIG problem) and danced above it on concerns of geopolitical risks (imho I think most of the geopolitical risk premium has been removed), the result is the same 57.35 is the magnet and will likely move based on headlines. OPEC+ has most of their barrels back online so any demand growth will likely need to be met from non-OPEC+ sources. Those sources will need 80+ to meaningfully grow - question is when will demand determine that move??? After intensifying, Iran-US tension
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-16 00:07
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a peculiar position; geopolitical tensions that once spurred major price shifts now barely stir a ripple. Despite recent military actions in Venezuela, prices remain largely flat, with $57.35 acting as a crucial support/resistance line. Concerns about Chinese demand recovery loom, while ample crude storage diminishes the immediate risk of supply disruptions. As geopolitical fears wane, focus shifts to demand dynamics—watch for potential movements as market sentiment evolves and demand signals emerge.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$66.52
$1.05
WTI:
$62.02
$0.87
Spread:
$4.5
(Brent premium of $4.50)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
24,528
Weekly Change:
8,785
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$58.96
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $58.88
MA(20): $58.05
Current Price is 58.96, 9 day MA 58.88, 20 day MA 58.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.451
Signal: 0.0403
Days since crossover: 16
MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.57
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.57 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,585
Avg (20d): 229,407
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 48.48
%D: 79.08
Stochastic %K: 48.48, %D: 79.08. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.61
+DI: 22.93
-DI: 13.16
ADX: 20.61 (+DI: 22.93, -DI: 13.16). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -51.52
Williams %R: -51.52 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.13
Middle: 58.05
Lower: 54.96
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.13, Middle: 58.05, Lower: 54.96
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $66.52, change $+1.05. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.02, change $+0.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.5 (Brent premium of $4.50). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$66.52
1.05
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$62.02
0.87
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.5
Brent premium of $4.50
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by a modest demand growth forecast and a tightening supply situation. Global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries. Meanwhile, OPEC's production decisions will be crucial as the demand for DoC crude is revised down slightly, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance ahead.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025
- OECD oil demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD oil demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand forecast: 4.8% growth in 2025
- India's demand forecast: 6.5% growth in 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily OECD countries
- Implications for OPEC: With demand for DoC crude revised down, OPEC may need to adjust production levels to maintain market stability.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains strong, with a forecast growth of 4.8% in 2025.
- India's growth story is robust, projected at 6.5% for 2025, indicating increasing energy needs.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand patterns contributing to overall market strength.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant growth, impacting overall oil consumption in the region.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, maintaining a steady upward trajectory.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns in key markets.
- Opportunities lie in the growing demand from emerging economies, particularly in Asia.
- Market-moving factors to watch: OPEC production decisions and global economic indicators.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The slight downward revision in demand for DoC crude.
- Biggest risk factor: Potential supply-demand imbalance due to lower demand forecasts.
- Opportunity area: Increased consumption in India and China presents growth potential.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production to align with revised demand forecasts to avoid market oversupply.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-06
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: 70,622
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-06
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,968,879 contracts (+70,622)
Managed Money Net Position: 24,528 contracts (1.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +8,785 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 223,120 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -293,886 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
70
Last Updated:
2026-01-16 00:06:18
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (7 articles)
- Oil settles down 4% as Trump comments ease Iranian supply concerns Reuters
- Analysts Call For Potential Record Ethanol Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Oil Seen Only a Small Risk to Canadian Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Iran Supply Disruptions Fears After U.S. Tariffs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Climb on Dollar Weakness and Supply Risks Barchart
- Venezuela's 'Proven' Oil Reserves Raises Questions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease in Iran Barchart
- Geopolitical Risk Pushes Crude Oil Prices Higher Barchart
- Oil Extends Rally on Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Geopolitical Risks Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Rises Amid Middle East Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.3
Daily:
0.17 (0.17%)
Weekly:
0.17 (0.17%)
US_10Y
4.16
Daily:
0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.26%)
SP500
6944.47
Daily:
17.87 (0.26%)
Weekly:
-21.81 (-0.31%)
VIX
15.84
Daily:
-0.91 (-5.43%)
Weekly:
1.35 (9.32%)
GOLD
4603.6
Daily:
-22.7 (-0.49%)
Weekly:
113.3 (2.52%)
COPPER
5.92
Daily:
-0.09 (-1.54%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.04%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.96
Closest Support:
$58.78
0.31% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
1.22% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.96
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-16 00:06:20
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.12%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | $58.89 | $56.71 | $61.07 |
| 2026-01-17 | $58.57 | $56.39 | $60.76 |
| 2026-01-18 | $58.32 | $56.14 | $60.5 |
| 2026-01-19 | $58.62 | $56.44 | $60.8 |
| 2026-01-20 | $58.78 | $56.6 | $60.96 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.12% for the next trading day (2026-01-16), reaching $58.89.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-16 and 2026-01-20.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
In light of the recent data, traders should be aware of the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600. The $65.20 average for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates a downward trend. The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread suggests that while Brent continues to command a premium, the narrowing spread may indicate a convergence in supply/demand dynamics.
With the market structure showing signs of weakness, traders should monitor for potential support levels around the $60 mark for WTI. Additionally, the increase in managed money positioning could hint at potential volatility; thus, short-term traders should be prepared for price fluctuations as the market reacts to geopolitical developments and inventory data.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the current supply-demand balance, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025. The slight decrease in DoC crude demand suggests a need for cautious production planning. Maintaining flexibility in production levels will be crucial, especially given the bearish market sentiment reflected in recent CFTC positioning data.
The increase in OECD commercial inventories, now at 2,845 mb, indicates a potential oversupply situation, which may necessitate strategic hedging to mitigate price risk. Producers should also keep an eye on refining margins, which have improved, presenting opportunities for optimizing product output amidst fluctuating crude prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices trending lower, averaging $60.07 and $63.95 respectively. The geopolitical risks easing in regions like Iran may lead to more stable supply chains, but vigilance is required as inventory levels remain volatile.
Given the recent increase in product exports from the US and the 7 mb/d export figure, procurement strategies should consider locking in prices to hedge against potential spikes as demand grows. Consumers should also monitor refining margins, which have improved, as this may affect product pricing and availability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market currently reflects a bearish outlook, driven by a combination of technical weakness and subdued demand growth forecasts, particularly in OECD regions. The $5.19 drop in OPEC Reference Basket value and the $3.88 Brent-WTI spread indicate significant shifts in market dynamics.
Key driving factors include a stable global economic growth forecast of 3.0% for 2025 and evolving supply dynamics from both DoC and non-DoC producers. Analysts should focus on the implications of CFTC positioning data, which shows a strengthening bullish sentiment among managed money traders, potentially indicating a market reversal if conditions align favorably.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Please conduct your own research before making investment decisions.