Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” The most recent example was US using military force to remove Maduro - the market almost resulted in zero reaction. We have had a little more movement at the end of the week with Iranian protests which is causing some reignited concern on the Strait of Hormuz. This is certainly valid, but with the US interests and Saudi Arabia, even with a conflict a disruption would likely be limited to a few days. That said - we have roughly 25 mmbopd that moves through the constraint point - but with so much crude storage on water right now - I don’t see a big physical disruption. For now, the result is the same 57.35 is the bull/bear line - and while we have danced below it on concerns of demand (which is a BIG BIG BIG problem) and danced above it on concerns of geopolitical risks (imho I think most of the geopolitical risk premium has been removed), the result is the same 57.35 is the magnet and will likely move based on headlines. OPEC+ has most of their barrels back online so any demand growth will likely need to be met from non-OPEC+ sources. Those sources will need 80+ to meaningfully grow - question is when will demand determine that move??? After intensifying, Iran-US tension
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-17 00:06
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is navigating a peculiar landscape, with geopolitical upheavals like tensions in Iran causing minimal market response. The price remains anchored around $57.35, dancing between bullish signals from geopolitical risks and bearish concerns over demand. OPEC+ has restored most production, but growth hinges on non-OPEC sources needing prices above $80. Despite potential disruptions, ample global supply buffers against major shocks, keeping traders skeptical yet alert for signs of demand recovery. Keep an eye on the headlines!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.76
$2.76
WTI:
$59.19
$2.83
Spread:
$4.57
(Brent premium of $4.57)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.44
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $59.03
MA(20): $58.23
Current Price is 59.44, 9 day MA 59.03, 20 day MA 58.23
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.4676
Signal: 0.1287
Days since crossover: 17
MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.28
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.28 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 113,642
Avg (20d): 233,862
Ratio: 0.49
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 55.76
%D: 67.53
Stochastic %K: 55.76, %D: 67.53. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.03
+DI: 21.78
-DI: 12.58
ADX: 21.03 (+DI: 21.78, -DI: 12.58). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -44.24
Williams %R: -44.24 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.23
Middle: 58.23
Lower: 55.24
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.23, Middle: 58.23, Lower: 55.24
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $63.76, change $-2.76. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.19, change $-2.83. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.57 (Brent premium of $4.57). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.76
2.76
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.19
2.83
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.57
Brent premium of $4.57
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The global oil market is currently experiencing a steady demand growth forecast of 1.4 mb/d for 2026, with non-OECD countries driving the majority of this increase. Supply from non-DoC countries is expected to rise by 0.6 mb/d, creating a balanced yet cautious outlook for OPEC's production strategies. As global economic growth stabilizes at 3.1%, OPEC faces both challenges and opportunities in navigating the evolving landscape of oil supply and demand.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 106.5 mb/d in 2026, +1.4 mb/d from 2025
- OECD demand: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand forecast: 4.5% growth in 2026
- India's demand forecast: 6.6% growth in 2026
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025, narrowing to 43.0 mb/d in 2026
- Deficit driven primarily by non-DoC production limitations
- OPEC's production decisions will need to adapt to these dynamics to maintain market stability
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with imports averaging 12.4 mb/d in November, +9% m-o-m
- India's growth story continues, with crude imports at 5.1 mb/d, supported by strong gasoline and naphtha exports
- The Americas show resilience, with US crude exports increasing by almost 10% m-o-m in December
- Europe faces challenges with declining product imports and fluctuating refining margins
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook indicates steady demand growth, with global oil demand expected to reach 107.1 mb/d by Q3 2026
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions
- Opportunities lie in adapting to the evolving energy landscape, particularly in renewable energy integration
- Market-moving factors to watch include OPEC's production adjustments and global economic recovery trends
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: China's crude imports surged to the highest since 2023, averaging 12.4 mb/d
- Biggest risk factor: Potential geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains
- Opportunity area: Increased focus on refining capabilities in emerging markets
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider flexible production strategies to respond to market fluctuations
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
61
Last Updated:
2026-01-17 00:05:51
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil settles down 4% as Trump comments ease Iranian supply concerns Reuters
- Analysts Call For Potential Record Ethanol Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Oil Seen Only a Small Risk to Canadian Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Iran Supply Disruptions Fears After U.S. Tariffs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- WTI Posts Weekly Gain Amid Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
- Crude Oil Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease in Iran Barchart
- Geopolitical Risk Pushes Crude Oil Prices Higher Barchart
- Crude Futures Gain on Iran Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Rally on Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Geopolitical Risks Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.39
Daily:
0.07 (0.07%)
Weekly:
0.53 (0.54%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
15.86
Daily:
0.02 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.74 (4.89%)
GOLD
4588.4
Daily:
-27.9 (-0.6%)
Weekly:
-15.9 (-0.35%)
COPPER
5.79
Daily:
-0.16 (-2.68%)
Weekly:
-0.2 (-3.28%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.44
Closest Support:
$58.78
1.11% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.4% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.44
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-17 00:05:54
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.53%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $59.13 | $57.03 | $61.22 |
| 2026-01-18 | $58.9 | $56.81 | $60.99 |
| 2026-01-19 | $59.17 | $57.07 | $61.26 |
| 2026-01-20 | $59.29 | $57.19 | $61.38 |
| 2026-01-21 | $59.32 | $57.22 | $61.41 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.53% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $59.13.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent decline in Crude Oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket at $61.74/b and Brent at $61.63/b, indicates potential volatility in the short term. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.57 reflects ongoing differences in supply dynamics, suggesting that traders should monitor this spread closely for arbitrage opportunities. The market remains in a state of backwardation, which could provide short-term trading opportunities as physical demand remains supportive despite futures selling pressure. Traders should also keep an eye on Fibonacci levels to identify potential reversal points as the market adjusts to geopolitical news and managed money positioning.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment, coupled with a decrease of 238 tb/d in DoC crude production, suggests a need for careful production planning. With inventory levels showing a rise in OECD crude stocks, producers may need to adjust their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price drops. The forecasted increase in global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, may provide a supportive environment for future production, but producers should remain cautious of external factors affecting supply reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as the Brent and WTI prices hover around $61.63/b and $57.87/b respectively. The stability in crude imports and the increase in product exports may indicate a reliable supply chain, but geopolitical tensions could pose supply reliability risks. It would be prudent for consumers to consider hedging strategies to protect against price volatility and ensure consistent procurement strategies amidst fluctuating market conditions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of supportive fundamentals and technical pressures. The drop in prices across major benchmarks reflects a convergence of factors including rising inventories and geopolitical easing. The balance of supply and demand remains tight, with a forecasted growth in global oil demand expected to support prices in the medium term. Analysts should closely monitor the managed money positioning, which indicates a bullish sentiment shift, possibly indicating future price increases if demand continues to outpace supply.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.