Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” Venezuela hardly moved the market as traders shrugged it off and we still have Russia/Ukraine raging. The only geopolitical headline that drew interest from traders was when the US increased rhetoric that the US would take action if Iran did not scale down resistance to protests in Iran - this caused WTI to go into the low 60s (are we calling that bullish now?). After that, there was a de-escalation of rhetoric and WTI has returned to below 60. Key price levels are 57.35 as the last line of support for bulls and 61.40 which is the last line of resistance for bears. Demand has been really bearish and economies are pointing to more softness which points down and the only bullish signs are geopolitical headlines. This means a slow grind down imho
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-18 00:07
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is navigating a complex landscape, with geopolitical tensions, especially surrounding Iran, providing sporadic support. WTI is currently testing critical price levels, with support at $57.35 and resistance at $61.40. Traders are increasingly skeptical, demanding clear evidence of supply issues to react, as evidenced by muted responses to Venezuelan and ongoing Russia/Ukraine crises. Despite a recent uptick in prices, the overall bearish demand outlook and sluggish economic indicators suggest a gradual decline may be on the horizon.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.13
$0.37
WTI:
$59.44
$0.25
Spread:
$4.69
(Brent premium of $4.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.34
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $59.02
MA(20): $58.23
Current Price is 59.34, 9 day MA 59.02, 20 day MA 58.23
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.4597
Signal: 0.1271
Days since crossover: 17
MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.93
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.93 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 271,847
Avg (20d): 241,772
Ratio: 1.12
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 54.24
%D: 67.02
Stochastic %K: 54.24, %D: 67.02. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.96
+DI: 21.78
-DI: 12.86
ADX: 20.96 (+DI: 21.78, -DI: 12.86). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -45.76
Williams %R: -45.76 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.22
Middle: 58.23
Lower: 55.24
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.22, Middle: 58.23, Lower: 55.24
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.13, change $+0.37. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.44, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.13
0.37
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.44
0.25
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.69
Brent premium of $4.69
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is witnessing a steady demand growth forecast of 1.4 mb/d for 2026, with non-OECD countries driving the majority of this increase. Supply from non-DoC countries is expected to rise by 0.6 mb/d, but the demand for DoC crude is projected to outpace supply, creating a tightening market. This scenario presents OPEC with critical decisions regarding production adjustments to maintain market stability.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World Oil Demand: 106.5 mb/d in 2026, +1.4 mb/d from 2025
- OECD Demand: +0.15 mb/d in 2026
- Non-OECD Demand: +1.2 mb/d in 2026
- China's Demand: 12.4 mb/d in November 2023, +9% m-o-m
- India's Demand: 5.1 mb/d in November 2023, above the five-year range
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current Gap Size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025, expected to tighten to 43.0 mb/d in 2026
- Regions Driving Deficit: Demand from non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, is outpacing supply growth
- Implications for OPEC: With demand for DoC crude projected to reach 43.6 mb/d in 2027, OPEC may need to consider production increases to balance the market
Regional Powerhouses
- China: Demand is on an upward trajectory, with November 2023 imports averaging 12.4 mb/d, a significant increase of +9% m-o-m
- India: Continues to show robust growth, averaging 5.1 mb/d in crude imports, supported by higher gasoline and naphtha exports
- Americas: Resilience in crude exports, with a nearly 10% increase m-o-m in December
- Europe: Facing challenges with declining product imports and increased product exports, indicating a shift in market dynamics
What's Next
- 2025-2026 Outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with a continued focus on non-OECD growth
- Risks and Opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact supply chains and demand
- Market-Moving Factors: Watch for changes in OPEC production strategies and shifts in global economic policies that could influence oil prices
Key Takeaways
- Most Surprising Data Point: China's crude imports surged to the highest levels since 2023, indicating strong demand recovery
- Biggest Risk Factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and impact global oil prices
- Opportunity Area: Increased demand from non-OECD countries presents growth opportunities for OPEC producers
- Strategic Recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the tightening demand for DoC crude
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
44
Last Updated:
2026-01-18 00:07:02
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- WTI Posts Weekly Gain Amid Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
- Geopolitical Events Keep Oil Markets Volatile — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease in Iran Barchart
- Geopolitical Risk Pushes Crude Oil Prices Higher Barchart
- Crude Futures Gain on Iran Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Rally on Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.38
Daily:
0.06 (0.06%)
Weekly:
0.51 (0.52%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
15.86
Daily:
0.02 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.74 (4.89%)
GOLD
4595.4
Daily:
-20.9 (-0.45%)
Weekly:
-8.9 (-0.19%)
COPPER
5.83
Daily:
-0.12 (-1.97%)
Weekly:
-0.15 (-2.57%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.34
Closest Support:
$58.78
0.94% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.57% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.34
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-18 00:07:05
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.53%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $59.03 | $56.93 | $61.12 |
| 2026-01-18 | $58.79 | $56.7 | $60.88 |
| 2026-01-19 | $59.07 | $56.97 | $61.16 |
| 2026-01-20 | $59.19 | $57.1 | $61.29 |
| 2026-01-21 | $59.23 | $57.14 | $61.32 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.53% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $59.03.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.600, indicates potential challenges in price stability. The Brent-WTI spread currently at $4.69 suggests that while Brent prices are holding a premium, the divergence between U.S. and global supply-demand dynamics could create volatility in trading strategies.
With the forward curves remaining in backwardation, traders should look for potential short-term opportunities, especially if prices approach key Fibonacci support levels. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand from major consumers like China could introduce risk factors to consider in trading decisions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should note the recent decline in crude production from OPEC countries, which decreased by 238 tb/d in December. This reduction, coupled with a forecasted balance in demand for DoC crude, suggests a need for careful production planning. Maintaining flexibility in hedging strategies will be crucial as market sentiment remains bearish and inventory levels are on the rise.
The increase in OECD commercial crude oil stocks by 8.1 mb indicates that producers might face pressure on prices if this trend continues. Monitoring these inventory levels will be essential to align production with market demand and avoid oversupply scenarios.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with the current pricing of Brent and WTI crude. As geopolitical risks persist, there may be supply reliability risks that could impact procurement strategies. The decline in refining margins across all regions may also affect product pricing and availability.
Given the increase in crude imports in key regions like Japan and the U.S., consumers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of rising costs. Monitoring product inventories will be crucial, especially as seasonal demand pressures influence market dynamics.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, influenced by a combination of factors including fundamental balances in supply and demand, geopolitical tensions, and a significant increase in commercial inventories. The forecasted global oil demand growth remains stable, yet the risks associated with geopolitical events and fluctuating economic indicators may lead to unexpected shifts in the market.
Analysts should focus on the interplay between production levels, particularly from non-DoC countries, and the evolving demand dynamics from regions like China and India. The positioning of managed money traders suggests a potential shift in sentiment, which could create opportunities for re-evaluating market strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for personalized recommendations.