Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” Venezuela hardly moved the market as traders shrugged it off and we still have Russia/Ukraine raging. The only geopolitical headline that drew interest from traders was when the US increased rhetoric that the US would take action if Iran did not scale down resistance to protests in Iran - this caused WTI to go into the low 60s (are we calling that bullish now?). After that, there was a de-escalation of rhetoric and WTI has returned to below 60. Key price levels are 57.35 as the last line of support for bulls and 61.40 which is the last line of resistance for bears. Demand has been really bearish and economies are pointing to more softness which points down and the only bullish signs are geopolitical headlines. This means a slow grind down imho
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-19 00:08
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are currently navigating a turbulent landscape, hovering around $59 with resistance at $59.85. Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran, briefly rallied prices, but easing rhetoric has caused WTI to dip below $60. Demand remains bearish, underpinned by softening economies, while key support at $57.35 looms. Traders now seem to demand more than headlines to move the market. If geopolitical concerns resurface, we might see a bullish bounce; otherwise, expect a gradual decline. Keep an eye on those pivotal price levels!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.13
$0.37
WTI:
$59.44
$0.25
Spread:
$4.69
(Brent premium of $4.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.34
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $59.28
MA(20): $58.39
Current Price is 59.34, 9 day MA 59.28, 20 day MA 58.39
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.453
Signal: 0.1936
Days since crossover: 18
MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.86
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.86 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 20,608
Avg (20d): 230,606
Ratio: 0.09
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 54.24
%D: 53.99
Stochastic %K: 54.24, %D: 53.99. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.07
+DI: 20.92
-DI: 13.48
ADX: 21.07 (+DI: 20.92, -DI: 13.48). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -45.76
Williams %R: -45.76 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.26
Middle: 58.39
Lower: 55.52
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.26, Middle: 58.39, Lower: 55.52
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.13, change $+0.37. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.44, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.13
0.37
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.44
0.25
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.69
Brent premium of $4.69
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by steady global demand growth and fluctuating supply dynamics. In 2026, world oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 mb/d, with notable contributions from non-OECD countries. OPEC's production decisions will be crucial in addressing the anticipated demand for DoC crude, which is expected to reach 43.0 mb/d in 2026.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 106.5 mb/d in 2026 (+1.4 mb/d year-on-year)
- OECD demand growth: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand: 4.5% growth forecast for 2026
- India's demand: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025, projected to adjust to 43.0 mb/d in 2026
- Regions driving the deficit: Non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, are significant contributors to demand growth
- Implications for OPEC: The rising demand for DoC crude suggests a need for OPEC to carefully manage production levels to avoid exacerbating supply shortages.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory: Expected to maintain a growth rate of 4.5% in 2026, driven by economic recovery and increased industrial activity.
- India's growth story: Projected to grow at 6.6% in 2026, supported by rising energy needs and economic expansion.
- Americas' resilience: The US remains a stable market with crude imports steady at just under 6 mb/d.
- Europe's challenges: Facing declining product imports and fluctuating refining margins due to seasonal demand pressures.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with a similar trend anticipated in 2027.
- Risks and opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact supply chains and pricing.
- Market-moving factors to watch: OPEC's production decisions, global economic recovery rates, and shifts in consumer behavior in key markets.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: China's crude imports surged to 12.4 mb/d in November, a 9% increase month-on-month.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply and impact global oil prices.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from non-OECD countries presents potential growth for OPEC production.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the rising demand for DoC crude in 2026.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
30
Last Updated:
2026-01-19 00:08:07
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Global Crude Supply Enough to Absorb Any Iran Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Likely Rangebound Unless Chinese Demand Recovers, Supply Faces Shortfall — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- WTI Posts Weekly Gain Amid Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
- Geopolitical Events Keep Oil Markets Volatile — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease in Iran Barchart
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.13
Daily:
-0.26 (-0.26%)
Weekly:
0.0 (0.0%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
15.86
Daily:
0.02 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.74 (4.89%)
GOLD
4671.1
Daily:
82.7 (1.8%)
Weekly:
81.9 (1.78%)
COPPER
5.9
Daily:
0.11 (1.96%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.14%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.34
Closest Support:
$58.78
0.94% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.57% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.44
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-19 00:08:09
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.54%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $59.12 | $57.02 | $61.21 |
| 2026-01-18 | $58.89 | $56.79 | $60.98 |
| 2026-01-19 | $59.17 | $57.07 | $61.26 |
| 2026-01-20 | $59.27 | $57.18 | $61.37 |
| 2026-01-21 | $59.31 | $57.21 | $61.4 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.54% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $59.12.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bearish sentiment, with the OPEC Reference Basket value dropping to an average of $61.74/b. The Brent-WTI spread has also narrowed, currently at $4.69, suggesting a convergence in supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets. The support level may be tested around $57.87/b for WTI, while resistance could be seen near $64.13/b for Brent. Traders should remain cautious about potential volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels. The bullish positioning of managed money traders, increasing by 23,042 contracts, indicates a potential for upward price movements if the market sentiment shifts positively.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should prepare for hedging strategies in light of the current bearish sentiment and declining crude prices. The recent $2.72/b drop in the OPEC Reference Basket may necessitate a review of production planning to maintain profitability. Additionally, the increase in 8.1 mb in crude inventories could signal a need for adjustments in output to avoid oversupply. Monitoring the supply-demand balance will be crucial, especially with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain under pressure. The $57.87/b level for WTI and the $61.63/b for Brent could impact procurement strategies. Furthermore, geopolitical risks and the current bearish sentiment may affect supply reliability, prompting consumers to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and potential supply disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture with both bearish sentiment and supportive fundamentals. The supply-demand balance remains relatively stable, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, while supply from non-DoC producers is also expected to increase. However, the bearish news sentiment, reflected in a score of -0.700, combined with declining refining margins and rising inventories, suggests caution. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and inventory levels closely, as these could significantly impact future price movements and market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consider your own financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.