Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” Venezuela hardly moved the market as traders shrugged it off and we still have Russia/Ukraine raging. The only geopolitical headline that drew interest from traders was when the US increased rhetoric that the US would take action if Iran did not scale down resistance to protests in Iran - this caused WTI to go into the low 60s (are we calling that bullish now?). After that, there was a de-escalation of rhetoric and WTI has returned to below 60. Key price levels are 57.35 as the last line of support for bulls and 61.40 which is the last line of resistance for bears. Demand has been really bearish and economies are pointing to more softness which points down and the only bullish signs are geopolitical headlines. This means a slow grind down imho
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-19 17:17
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a curious state where geopolitical tensions, once potent enough to sway prices by 10-20%, now barely register on the market's radar. Recent headlines, particularly around Iran, nudged WTI into the low $60s, but it has since retreated below $60, with key support at $57.35 and resistance at $61.40. Demand remains bearish, suggesting a slow grind downward, as traders await clearer signals. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments and economic indicators—they could spark unexpected price movements!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.13
$0.37
WTI:
$59.44
$0.25
Spread:
$4.69
(Brent premium of $4.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
NEUTRAL
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.43
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $59.29
MA(20): $58.4
Current Price is 59.43, 9 day MA 59.29, 20 day MA 58.4
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.4602
Signal: 0.195
Days since crossover: 18
MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.24
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.24 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 119,933
Avg (20d): 235,572
Ratio: 0.51
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 55.61
%D: 54.44
Stochastic %K: 55.61, %D: 54.44. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.0
+DI: 20.86
-DI: 13.73
ADX: 21.0 (+DI: 20.86, -DI: 13.73). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -44.39
Williams %R: -44.39 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.27
Middle: 58.4
Lower: 55.52
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.27, Middle: 58.4, Lower: 55.52
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.13, change $+0.37. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.44, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.13
0.37
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.44
0.25
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.69
Brent premium of $4.69
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
• In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value decreased by $2.72/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.74/b.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract also declined by $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b.
• The Brent-WTI spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b.
• The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals despite selling pressure in futures markets.
• The backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly, while the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract also declined by $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b.
• The Brent-WTI spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b.
• The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals despite selling pressure in futures markets.
• The backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly, while the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
• Global GDP growth is forecast at 3.1% for 2026, with an acceleration to 3.2% in 2027.
• The US growth forecast remains at 2.1% for 2026 and 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth is projected at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan's economic growth forecast is 0.9% for 2026, with similar growth expected in 2027.
• China's growth is forecast at 4.5% for 2026 and 2027, while India is expected to grow by 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
• Brazil's growth is forecast at 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027, while Russia's forecast is slightly revised down to 1.3% for 2026, with a recovery to 1.5% in 2027.
• The US growth forecast remains at 2.1% for 2026 and 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth is projected at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan's economic growth forecast is 0.9% for 2026, with similar growth expected in 2027.
• China's growth is forecast at 4.5% for 2026 and 2027, while India is expected to grow by 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
• Brazil's growth is forecast at 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027, while Russia's forecast is slightly revised down to 1.3% for 2026, with a recovery to 1.5% in 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
• Global oil demand growth for 2026 is forecast at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment.
• OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
• For 2027, global oil demand is anticipated to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD growth remaining at around 1.2 mb/d.
• Key demand drivers include economic recovery and regional consumption patterns, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and market volatility.
• OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
• For 2027, global oil demand is anticipated to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD growth remaining at around 1.2 mb/d.
• Key demand drivers include economic recovery and regional consumption patterns, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and market volatility.
World Oil Supply Analysis
• Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
• Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to increase by 0.1 mb/d, averaging 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027.
• DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging 42.83 mb/d according to secondary sources.
• The overall outlook for DoC production remains cautious, with a focus on maintaining market stability amidst fluctuating global demand.
• Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to increase by 0.1 mb/d, averaging 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027.
• DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging 42.83 mb/d according to secondary sources.
• The overall outlook for DoC production remains cautious, with a focus on maintaining market stability amidst fluctuating global demand.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
• Refining margins experienced a decline across all regions in December, following a previous upward trend.
• In the Northern Hemisphere, product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures contributed to this decline.
• European product flows to West Africa decreased, further impacting refining margins.
• In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East weighed on refining profitability.
• In the Northern Hemisphere, product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures contributed to this decline.
• European product flows to West Africa decreased, further impacting refining margins.
• In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East weighed on refining profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
• Dirty tanker spot freight rates fell in December after strong gains earlier in the year.
• VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route declining by 12%, m-o-m.
• Suezmax rates also saw a decline, with rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route falling by 12%, m-o-m.
• Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
• In contrast, clean tanker market rates rose, driven by increased long-haul demand as refineries ramped up production post-maintenance.
• VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route declining by 12%, m-o-m.
• Suezmax rates also saw a decline, with rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route falling by 12%, m-o-m.
• Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
• In contrast, clean tanker market rates rose, driven by increased long-haul demand as refineries ramped up production post-maintenance.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
• US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m, in December.
• OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined and exports surged to the upper end of the 5-year range.
• Japan's crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand, with product outflows increasing by 6%.
• China's crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m, following the release of import quotas.
• India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d, with product exports increasing despite a decline in diesel outflows.
• OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined and exports surged to the upper end of the 5-year range.
• Japan's crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand, with product outflows increasing by 6%.
• China's crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m, following the release of import quotas.
• India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d, with product exports increasing despite a decline in diesel outflows.
Commercial Stock Movements
• OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to 2,840 mb, which is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier.
• Crude stocks increased by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago but 20.7 mb below the latest five-year average.
• Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days, which is 1.5 days higher than November 2024 but lower than the five-year average.
• Crude stocks increased by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago but 20.7 mb below the latest five-year average.
• Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days, which is 1.5 days higher than November 2024 but lower than the five-year average.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
• Demand for DoC crude in 2026 is forecast at 43.0 mb/d, about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025, with a projected increase to 43.6 mb/d in 2027.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is estimated at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is forecast at 63.5 mb/d.
• This results in a supply-demand gap of 42.5 mb/d, indicating a significant requirement for DoC crude to meet demand.
• The strategic outlook suggests a need for careful production decisions to balance the market and ensure stability in pricing and supply.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is estimated at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is forecast at 63.5 mb/d.
• This results in a supply-demand gap of 42.5 mb/d, indicating a significant requirement for DoC crude to meet demand.
• The strategic outlook suggests a need for careful production decisions to balance the market and ensure stability in pricing and supply.
| Category | 2026 Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | Gap/DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Demand | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
25
Last Updated:
2026-01-19 17:16:55
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Global Crude Supply Enough to Absorb Any Iran Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Likely Rangebound Unless Chinese Demand Recovers, Supply Faces Shortfall — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Oil Falls as Middle East Tensions Continue to Fade — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Posts Weekly Gain Amid Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.39
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.26 (0.27%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
18.84
Daily:
2.98 (18.79%)
Weekly:
2.86 (17.9%)
GOLD
4676.7
Daily:
88.3 (1.92%)
Weekly:
87.5 (1.91%)
COPPER
5.91
Daily:
0.12 (2.02%)
Weekly:
-0.06 (-1.08%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.43
Closest Support:
$58.78
1.09% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.42% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.44
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-19 17:16:59
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.54%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $59.12 | $57.02 | $61.21 |
| 2026-01-18 | $58.89 | $56.79 | $60.98 |
| 2026-01-19 | $59.17 | $57.07 | $61.26 |
| 2026-01-20 | $59.27 | $57.18 | $61.37 |
| 2026-01-21 | $59.31 | $57.21 | $61.4 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.54% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $59.12.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a neutral sentiment, with prices showing recent declines. The $61.74/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates potential support around the $60 mark. The $3.76/b Brent-WTI spread suggests that while Brent is maintaining a premium, the narrowing spread could indicate risks related to U.S. supply dynamics. Traders should watch for volatility in the short term as futures markets exhibit selling pressure despite underlying physical market strength. The Fibonacci levels for resistance can be assessed around $64, which may act as a barrier for upward movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With $57.87/b WTI prices and an anticipated balance of supply and demand, producers should consider adjusting production plans accordingly. The recent drop in crude oil production by OPEC countries indicates a tightening market, which could support prices in the long run. Additionally, the hedging strategies may need to be revisited, especially in light of rising inventory levels and geopolitical risks that could affect operational costs and margins.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should be prepared for potential fluctuations in input costs as $61.63/b Brent prices may affect procurement strategies. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories necessitate a proactive approach to procurement. Monitoring the balance of crude and product inventories will be crucial in assessing supply chain stability and managing costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently facing neutral sentiment, with significant factors influencing the outlook. Despite the recent price declines, the fundamentals indicate a potential bullish scenario due to anticipated demand growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2026. The CFTC positioning shows a strengthening bullish sentiment among managed money traders, which may lead to upward price movements if demand recovers. Analysts should continue to monitor the interplay between supply constraints and demand recovery for potential shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.