Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” Venezuela hardly moved the market as traders shrugged it off and we still have Russia/Ukraine raging. The only geopolitical headline that drew interest from traders was when the US increased rhetoric that the US would take action if Iran did not scale down resistance to protests in Iran - this caused WTI to go into the low 60s (are we calling that bullish now?). After that, there was a de-escalation of rhetoric and WTI has returned to below 60. Key price levels are 57.35 as the last line of support for bulls and 61.40 which is the last line of resistance for bears. Demand has been really bearish and economies are pointing to more softness which points down and the only bullish signs are geopolitical headlines. This means a slow grind down imho
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-19 18:35
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a curious limbo, responding less to geopolitical headlines than it used to. Recent tensions around Iran briefly nudged WTI above $60, but that momentum faded as support at $57.35 remains crucial for bulls, while bears eye $61.40. Demand appears weak amid economic concerns, and traders are wary, waiting for clearer signals. With global trade risks and easing supply worries, the market's next moves hinge on geopolitical events—stay vigilant for any unexpected shifts!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.13
$0.37
WTI:
$59.44
$0.25
Spread:
$4.69
(Brent premium of $4.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
NEUTRAL
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.36
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $59.28
MA(20): $58.39
Current Price is 59.36, 9 day MA 59.28, 20 day MA 58.39
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.4546
Signal: 0.1939
Days since crossover: 18
MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.94
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 120,587
Avg (20d): 235,605
Ratio: 0.51
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 54.55
%D: 54.09
Stochastic %K: 54.55, %D: 54.09. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.0
+DI: 20.86
-DI: 13.73
ADX: 21.0 (+DI: 20.86, -DI: 13.73). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -45.45
Williams %R: -45.45 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.27
Middle: 58.39
Lower: 55.52
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.27, Middle: 58.39, Lower: 55.52
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.13, change $+0.37. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.44, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.13
0.37
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.44
0.25
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.69
Brent premium of $4.69
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also dropped by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
- Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
- The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals.
- Despite selling pressure in futures markets, the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. Key economic forecasts include:
- US: 2.1% growth in 2026, 2.0% in 2027.
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan: 0.9% growth for both years.
- China: 4.5% growth for both years.
- India: 6.6% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027.
- Brazil: 2.0% growth in 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027.
- Russia: 1.3% growth in 2026, expected to reach 1.5% in 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD demand growth: 0.1 mb/d in 2027.
- Non-OECD demand growth: around 1.2 mb/d in 2027.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by approximately 0.6 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027, driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins experienced a decline across all regions in December due to:
- Product inventory builds, especially for transport fuels.
- Seasonal demand pressures.
- Declining European product flows to West Africa.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong mid-year gains:
- VLCC rates dropped but remained strong due to long-haul demand.
- Middle East-to-East route rates fell by 12%, while Middle East-to-West rates decreased by 11%.
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route fell by 12%.
- Aframax rates saw a moderate decline of 4% on the Cross-Med route.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while exports increased by nearly 10%. Key trade patterns include:
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports but a decline in product imports.
- Japan's crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand.
- China's crude imports surged to 12.4 mb/d, reflecting strong demand.
- India's crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with increased product exports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary data for November 2025 indicates that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, reaching 2,840 mb:
- Crude stocks increased by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, with a forecast of 43.6 mb/d for 2027. An analysis of the supply-demand balance reveals:
The supply-demand gap for 2026 indicates a requirement for DoC crude of 43.0 mb/d, highlighting a gap of 43.0 mb/d between world demand and non-DoC supply. This gap necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward to ensure market stability.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
25
Last Updated:
2026-01-19 18:34:56
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.1
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- WTI Posts Weekly Gain Amid Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.39
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.26 (0.27%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
18.84
Daily:
2.98 (18.79%)
Weekly:
2.86 (17.9%)
GOLD
4673.8
Daily:
85.4 (1.86%)
Weekly:
84.6 (1.84%)
COPPER
5.9
Daily:
0.12 (2.0%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.11%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.36
Closest Support:
$58.78
0.98% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.54% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.44
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-19 18:34:58
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.54%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $59.12 | $57.02 | $61.21 |
| 2026-01-18 | $58.89 | $56.79 | $60.98 |
| 2026-01-19 | $59.17 | $57.07 | $61.26 |
| 2026-01-20 | $59.27 | $57.18 | $61.37 |
| 2026-01-21 | $59.31 | $57.21 | $61.4 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.54% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $59.12.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a $2.72 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket, with Brent and WTI also declining. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.76, reflecting changes in supply-demand dynamics.
Traders should anticipate increased volatility in the short term due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand forecasts. The backwardation in futures suggests potential support levels, but caution is warranted given the selling pressure in futures markets.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand growth forecast stable at 1.4 mb/d, producers should consider this when planning production levels. The hedging strategies may need adjustment based on current inventory levels, which have seen a rise in crude stocks by 8.1 mb.
The market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, but producers should monitor the impact of geopolitical developments on supply reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Current input cost fluctuations are evident, with WTI and Brent prices declining. Consumers should prepare for potential procurement adjustments as the $57.87 average WTI price could lead to cost pressures in refining operations.
The supply reliability risks from geopolitical events and rising inventories necessitate a strategic approach to hedging against price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish indicators. While backwardation suggests strong physical market fundamentals, the decline in refining margins and rising inventories indicate potential weaknesses.
Analysts should focus on the balance of supply and demand as global oil demand is projected to maintain growth, but with caution towards the geopolitical landscape and its implications on market stability.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.