Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” Venezuela hardly moved the market as traders shrugged it off and we still have Russia/Ukraine raging. The only geopolitical headline that drew interest from traders was when the US increased rhetoric that the US would take action if Iran did not scale down resistance to protests in Iran - this caused WTI to go into the low 60s (are we calling that bullish now?). After that, there was a de-escalation of rhetoric and WTI has returned to below 60. Key price levels are 57.35 as the last line of support for bulls and 61.40 which is the last line of resistance for bears. Demand has been really bearish and economies are pointing to more softness which points down and the only bullish signs are geopolitical headlines. This means a slow grind down imho
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-19 23:52
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a curious historical moment, where geopolitical headlines, which once sent prices soaring, now barely cause a ripple. Recent tensions regarding Iran momentarily pushed WTI to the low $60s, but a cooling off has returned it below $60. Key support is at $57.35 and resistance at $61.40. Demand remains sluggish amid a softening economy, indicating a potential slow downward trend. Traders are cautious, waiting for clearer signs of a market shift, particularly from geopolitical developments or unexpected data.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.13
$0.37
WTI:
$59.44
$0.25
Spread:
$4.69
(Brent premium of $4.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.43
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $59.29
MA(20): $58.4
Current Price is 59.43, 9 day MA 59.29, 20 day MA 58.4
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.4602
Signal: 0.195
Days since crossover: 18
MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.24
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.24 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 128,557
Avg (20d): 236,003
Ratio: 0.54
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 55.61
%D: 54.44
Stochastic %K: 55.61, %D: 54.44. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.0
+DI: 20.85
-DI: 13.72
ADX: 21.0 (+DI: 20.85, -DI: 13.72). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -44.39
Williams %R: -44.39 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.27
Middle: 58.4
Lower: 55.52
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.27, Middle: 58.4, Lower: 55.52
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.13, change $+0.37. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.44, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.13
0.37
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.44
0.25
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.69
Brent premium of $4.69
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also dropped by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
- Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
- The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook.
- Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US growth forecast: 2.1% for 2026, 2% for 2027.
- Eurozone growth forecast: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan growth forecast: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027.
- China growth forecast: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
- India growth forecast: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027.
- Brazil growth forecast: 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027.
- Russia growth forecast: revised down to 1.3% for 2026, forecast to reach 1.5% in 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- OECD demand growth forecast: 0.15 mb/d.
- Non-OECD demand growth forecast: approximately 1.2 mb/d.
- In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production in 2026 is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers.
- In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d.
- NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 and 2027.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, to average about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December following a sharp upward trend in previous months.
- In the Northern Hemisphere, margins fell due to product inventory builds amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
- Declines in European product flows to West Africa contributed to the margins drop.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies, softening export incentives, and firm product availability from the Middle East.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains seen since mid-year.
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, m-o-m; Middle East-to-West route rates were down 11%, m-o-m.
- Suezmax rates fell 12%, m-o-m, on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route.
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates rose by 14%, m-o-m, on the Middle East-to-East route.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained broadly unchanged at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined m-o-m.
- Japan’s crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional product demand.
- China’s crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India’s crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb.
- OECD commercial stocks were 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier and 0.3 mb above the latest five-year average.
- Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a significant requirement for DoC crude to meet the projected demand. The gap between world demand and non-DoC supply highlights the necessity for strategic production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
24
Last Updated:
2026-01-19 23:51:31
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- WTI Posts Weekly Gain Amid Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.39
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.26 (0.27%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
18.84
Daily:
2.98 (18.79%)
Weekly:
2.86 (17.9%)
GOLD
4696.9
Daily:
108.5 (2.36%)
Weekly:
107.7 (2.35%)
COPPER
5.88
Daily:
0.09 (1.51%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-1.57%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.43
Closest Support:
$58.78
1.09% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$59.68
0.42% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
Support
0.618
$59.68
Resistance
0.786
$60.96
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.44
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-19 23:51:33
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.54%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $59.12 | $57.02 | $61.21 |
| 2026-01-18 | $58.89 | $56.79 | $60.98 |
| 2026-01-19 | $59.17 | $57.07 | $61.26 |
| 2026-01-20 | $59.27 | $57.18 | $61.37 |
| 2026-01-21 | $59.31 | $57.21 | $61.4 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.54% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $59.12.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements show a decline in the OPEC Reference Basket to an average of $61.74/b. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.76/b, indicating shifts in supply dynamics between global and U.S. markets. The support levels might be around $57.87/b (WTI) and $61.63/b (Brent), while resistance could be tested near $64.13/b for Brent, given the recent market sentiment score of +0.600.
With managed money positions increasing by +23,042 contracts, this strengthening sentiment suggests potential short-term opportunities, but traders should remain cautious of volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight decrease in production from OPEC countries, averaging 42.83 mb/d, which may affect market strategies. With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, producers should consider adjusting production levels accordingly to meet this demand.
The increase in crude exports by almost 10% in the U.S. also presents an opportunity for hedging strategies against price fluctuations. Maintaining a close watch on inventory levels, especially with OECD crude stocks rising by 8.1 mb, will be crucial for production planning and optimizing profitability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure, with current averages at $57.87/b and $61.63/b, respectively. The geopolitical risks and inventory levels, particularly the 4.0 mb increase in OECD commercial stocks, could impact supply reliability.
As product inventories are rising, procurement strategies might need to be reassessed. With the refining margins declining due to inventory builds, consumers should consider hedging against potential price spikes in transport fuels.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a positive short-term outlook despite recent price declines. Key driving factors include stable global economic growth forecasts, with a projected increase in oil demand of 1.4 mb/d in 2026, primarily from non-OECD countries.
The market sentiment remains bullish, supported by increasing managed money positions and a favorable supply-demand balance. However, analysts should monitor the geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on prices and supply chains, as well as the implications of the narrowing Brent-WTI spread for future market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.