Crude Oil Radar

Published: 01/20/2026 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude oil is sitting in such a unique place in history - headlines that would have moved WTI and Brent by 10-20% in just a few days, now result in traders shifting their opinions to “show me the problem” Venezuela hardly moved the market as traders shrugged it off and we still have Russia/Ukraine raging. The only geopolitical headline that drew interest from traders was when the US increased rhetoric that the US would take action if Iran did not scale down resistance to protests in Iran - this caused WTI to go into the low 60s (are we calling that bullish now?). After that, there was a de-escalation of rhetoric and WTI has returned to below 60. Key price levels are 57.35 as the last line of support for bulls and 61.40 which is the last line of resistance for bears. Demand has been really bearish and economies are pointing to more softness which points down and the only bullish signs are geopolitical headlines. This means a slow grind down imho

Updated: 2026-01-20 23:46:56 Length: 559 chars

Crude oil is currently navigating a peculiar landscape, with geopolitical headlines failing to stir significant price movements. Recent tensions regarding Iran briefly nudged WTI into the low $60s, but it has since settled below $60 as bearish demand signals persist. Key support sits at $57.35, while resistance looms at $61.40. The market is increasingly skeptical, awaiting concrete evidence of issues rather than reacting to noise. Traders should watch for potential developments in geopolitical tensions and economic indicators that could sway sentiment.

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: -1/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.13 $0.37

WTI: $59.44 $0.25

Spread: $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 47,570

Weekly Change: 23,042

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)

Current Price: $59.77

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $59.33

MA(20): $58.41

Current Price is 59.77, 9 day MA 59.33, 20 day MA 58.41

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.4873

Signal: 0.2004

Days since crossover: 18

MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 54.48

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 54.48 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 15,235

Avg (20d): 230,345

Ratio: 0.07

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 60.76

%D: 56.16

Stochastic %K: 60.76, %D: 56.16. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 21.44

+DI: 21.37

-DI: 12.34

ADX: 21.44 (+DI: 21.37, -DI: 12.34). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -39.24

Williams %R: -39.24 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 61.32

Middle: 58.41

Lower: 55.51

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.32, Middle: 58.41, Lower: 55.51

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13753.0	13811.0	13563.0	12993.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	7092.0	6339.0	6428.0	6801.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4306.0	4263.0	3078.0	4326.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16958.0	16909.0	16902.0	16051.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2786.0	2076.0	3350.0	2475.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	422447.0	419056.0	414642.0	430202.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1713773.0	1707349.0	1628624.0	1615440.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	251013.0	242036.0	237714.0	240630.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	129244.0	129273.0	128938.0	127515.0

International Price Summary

Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.13, change $+0.37. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $59.44, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.69 (Brent premium of $4.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.13

0.37

(MAR 26)

WTI Crude

$59.44

0.25

(FEB 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.69

Brent premium of $4.69

World Demand 2025

105.14

million barrels/day

Demand Growth 2025/24

+1.30%

year-over-year

World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)

Regional Demand Breakdown

Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)

Supply-Demand Balance

China Oil Demand Trend

India Oil Demand Trend

United States Oil Demand Trend

Economic Growth vs Oil Demand

Year-over-Year Market Analysis

OPEC Countries Production

Data Sources Used: World Demand Supply Balance China Data India Data US Data Economic Growth

World Demand

105.14

mb/d

+1.30%

OECD / Non-OECD

OECD: 45.97

Non-OECD: 59.17

Asia Giants

China: 16.86

India: 5.66

Supply Gap

42.47

mb/d

DoC Required

OPEC Market Analysis

Crude Oil Price Movements

In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b in December, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.

Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook.
Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.

World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop

Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. This steady expansion is expected to accelerate further in 2027 to reach 3.2%.

US growth forecast: 2.1% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027.
Eurozone growth forecast: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
Japan growth forecast: 0.9% for both years.
China growth forecast: 4.5% for both years.
India growth forecast: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
Brazil growth forecast: 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027.
Russia growth forecast: 1.3% for 2026, improving to 1.5% in 2027.
Normalization in global trade and adjustments to monetary policies are expected to support this growth.

World Oil Demand Trends

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

OECD demand growth: +0.15 mb/d.
Non-OECD demand growth: +1.2 mb/d.
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
OECD is expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD is forecast to grow by around +1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply Analysis

Non-DoC liquids production in 2026 is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

Main growth drivers: Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.
In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d.
NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by +0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, to average about 42.83 mb/d.

Product Markets & Refining Operations

Refining margins dropped across all regions in December after a sharp upward trend in previous months.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the decline was due to product inventory builds amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
European product flows to West Africa also contributed to the margins drop.
Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and softening export incentives.

Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics

Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains seen since mid-year.

VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
Spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route declined by -12%, m-o-m.
Suezmax rates fell by -12%, m-o-m, while Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of -4%, m-o-m.
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates rose by +14%, m-o-m, on the Middle East-to-East route.

Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows

In December, US crude imports were broadly unchanged at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost +10%, m-o-m.

OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined.
Japan’s crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional product demand.
China’s crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of +9%, m-o-m.
India’s crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb.

OECD commercial stocks were 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier.
Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.2 days.

Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook

Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about +0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025.

For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d, around +0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.

Period	World Demand (mb/d)	Non-DoC Supply (mb/d)	DoC Requirement (mb/d)
2026	106.5	63.5	43.0
2027	107.9	63.5	43.6

The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude to meet the expected demand. The gap for 2026 is calculated as follows:

World demand: 106.5 mb/d
Non-DoC supply: 63.5 mb/d
DoC requirement: 43.0 mb/d

This analysis highlights the strategic need for production decisions to align with the anticipated demand growth in the coming years.

Americas

25.34 mb/d

China

16.86 mb/d

India

5.66 mb/d

Asia Pacific

9.78 mb/d

Europe

13.51 mb/d

Middle East

8.96 mb/d

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2026-01-13

Managed Money

47,570

Change: +23,042

2.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

229,841

Change: +6,721

11.4% of OI

Swap Dealers

-295,291

Change: -1,405

-14.6% of OI

Open Interest

2,018,789

Change: 49,910

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)

Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.4

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 33

Last Updated: 2026-01-20 23:52:14

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.6

Daily: -0.79 (-0.8%)

Weekly: -0.53 (-0.54%)

US_10Y

4.3

Daily: 0.06 (1.51%)

Weekly: 0.12 (2.97%)

SP500

6796.86

Daily: -143.15 (-2.06%)

Weekly: -166.88 (-2.4%)

VIX

20.09

Daily: 4.23 (26.67%)

Weekly: 4.11 (25.72%)

GOLD

4864.6

Daily: 276.2 (6.02%)

Weekly: 275.4 (6.0%)

COPPER

5.84

Daily: 0.05 (0.84%)

Weekly: -0.13 (-2.23%)

Current Price: $59.77

Closest Support: $59.68 0.15% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.96 1.99% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $54.98

0.236 $56.78

0.382 $57.89

0.5 $58.78

0.618 $59.68 Support

0.786 $60.96 Resistance

1.0 $62.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $64.66

1.618 $67.29

2.0 $70.2

2.618 $74.9

Current Price: $60.34

Forecast Generated: 2026-01-20 23:52:16

Next Trading Day: UP 0.49%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2026-01-21	$60.63	$58.53	$62.74
2026-01-22	$60.79	$58.69	$62.89
2026-01-23	$60.8	$58.7	$62.9
2026-01-24	$60.7	$58.6	$62.81
2026-01-25	$60.63	$58.52	$62.73

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.49% for the next trading day (2026-01-21), reaching $60.63.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-21 and 2026-01-25.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400, indicates potential risks for traders. The Brent-WTI spread remains at $4.69, suggesting a premium for Brent due to global supply-demand dynamics. The forward curves in backwardation signal short-term support, but the overall price movement, with declines in major benchmarks (ORB at $61.74, Brent at $61.63, WTI at $57.87), indicates potential support levels to watch closely.

Traders should be cautious of volatility as managed money positions show a strengthening bullish sentiment, which could lead to potential price reversals. Monitoring Fibonacci levels for resistance and support could be beneficial in identifying trading opportunities.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the current supply-demand balance, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026. However, the decrease in DoC crude production by 238 tb/d in December may provide support for prices. The hedging strategies should be evaluated against current market sentiment, which is bearish, and the increase in OECD crude inventories could pressure prices further.

Producers may need to adapt their production planning and inventory strategies to align with the evolving market landscape, especially considering potential fluctuations in geopolitical risks and inventory levels.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile, with WTI currently at $57.87. The supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels, particularly in the OECD region where crude stocks have increased.

It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that include hedging against price increases, especially given the bearish market sentiment and the potential for further declines in refining margins due to rising domestic product supplies.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing a bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.400 indicating a cautious outlook. Key driving factors include the steady growth in global oil demand and the forecasted increase in non-DoC liquids production, primarily from Brazil and Canada. However, the decline in refining margins and rising inventories in the OECD suggest potential downward pressure on prices.

Analysts should monitor supply-demand dynamics, particularly in relation to OPEC's production adjustments and geopolitical developments that may affect market stability. The outlook remains fluid, and shifts in sentiment and positioning could lead to significant changes in market direction.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.