Crude oil continues to trade like a market that’s seen every movie already and isn’t impressed by the trailer anymore. This week summed it up perfectly: WTI settled just north of $60 as cold weather boosted heating oil and diesel demand, the IEA quietly nudged demand forecasts higher, and a weaker dollar gave prices a small tailwind. Yet geopolitical noise barely moved the needle. Trump’s Davos comments on Greenland and tariffs came and went with little impact, Iran has gone radio silent, and Venezuela is viewed more as a slow-burn supply risk than an immediate shock. Even with diesel futures ripping on winter demand and refinery utilization set to ease, crude remains anchored by a well-supplied global balance and the looming reality of a 2026 surplus. In short, oil can still rally, but only on tangible forces like cold-driven product demand or real supply disruptions. Headlines alone don’t cut it anymore, and until barrels actually go missing, this market looks less explosive and more methodical, grinding within its range and daring traders to confuse noise for signal.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-21 16:59
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating a market that seems unimpressed by geopolitical headlines, settling around $60 per barrel. While cold weather has boosted heating fuel demand, and the IEA has nudged demand forecasts higher, a well-supplied global balance keeps prices anchored. The market is characterized by a lack of explosive reactions to geopolitical events, suggesting traders should focus on tangible supply-demand shifts. Watch for real disruptions or sustained cold weather to ignite any significant price movement.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.92
$0.79
WTI:
$60.34
$0.9
Spread:
$4.58
(Brent premium of $4.58)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$60.72
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $59.92
MA(20): $58.65
Current Price is 60.72, 9 day MA 59.92, 20 day MA 58.65
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.608
Signal: 0.2892
Days since crossover: 19
MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.69
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.69 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 302,279
Avg (20d): 239,923
Ratio: 1.26
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 75.15
%D: 66.77
Stochastic %K: 75.15, %D: 66.77. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.54
+DI: 21.42
-DI: 10.83
ADX: 22.54 (+DI: 21.42, -DI: 10.83). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -24.85
Williams %R: -24.85 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.65
Middle: 58.65
Lower: 55.64
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.65, Middle: 58.65, Lower: 55.64
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.92, change $+0.79. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $60.34, change $+0.9. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.58 (Brent premium of $4.58). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.92
0.79
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$60.34
0.9
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.58
Brent premium of $4.58
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also declined by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
- Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b.
- The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook.
- Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. The positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US growth forecast: 2.1% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027.
- Eurozone growth forecast: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan's growth forecast: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027.
- China's growth forecast: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
- India's growth forecast: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
- Brazil's growth forecast: 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027.
- Russia's growth forecast: revised down to 1.3% for 2026, with an increase to 1.5% in 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD demand growth forecast: 0.1 mb/d for 2027.
- Non-OECD demand growth forecast: approximately 1.2 mb/d for both 2026 and 2027.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 and 2027.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December following a sharp upward trend in previous months.
- Declines in the Northern Hemisphere were attributed to product inventory builds amid seasonal demand pressures.
- European product flows to West Africa decreased, contributing to margin drops.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East, impacting profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year.
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued long-haul demand.
- Rates on the Middle East-to-East route declined by 12%, m-o-m, while rates on the Middle East-to-West route fell by 11%, m-o-m.
- Suezmax rates also saw a decline of 12% on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route.
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased by 14% on the Middle East-to-East route, supported by rising refinery demand.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined.
- Japan's crude imports rose to an average of 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand.
- China's crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports remained above the five-year range, averaging 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to 2,840 mb.
- OECD commercial stocks were 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier and 0.3 mb above the latest five-year average.
- Crude stocks increased by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement Gap (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 44.4 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude of 43.0 mb/d in 2026, with a gap of 43.0 mb/d against non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d. This gap is projected to widen slightly in 2027, necessitating strategic production decisions to ensure market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
45
Last Updated:
2026-01-21 16:58:45
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
- Oil Trims Losses But Remains Pressured by Trade Risks, Easing Supply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
- Oil Rises in Asia; Geopolitical Tensions in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as Middle East Tensions Continue to Fade — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.76
Daily:
0.12 (0.12%)
Weekly:
-0.37 (-0.38%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.98%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.73%)
SP500
6875.62
Daily:
78.76 (1.16%)
Weekly:
-50.98 (-0.74%)
VIX
16.9
Daily:
-3.19 (-15.88%)
Weekly:
0.15 (0.9%)
GOLD
4840.8
Daily:
81.2 (1.71%)
Weekly:
214.5 (4.64%)
COPPER
5.81
Daily:
0.03 (0.59%)
Weekly:
-0.2 (-3.36%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.72
Closest Support:
$59.68
1.71% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.96
0.4% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
0.618
$59.68
Support
0.786
$60.96
Resistance
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$60.34
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-21 16:58:48
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.49%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | $60.63 | $58.53 | $62.74 |
| 2026-01-22 | $60.79 | $58.69 | $62.89 |
| 2026-01-23 | $60.8 | $58.7 | $62.9 |
| 2026-01-24 | $60.7 | $58.6 | $62.81 |
| 2026-01-25 | $60.63 | $58.52 | $62.73 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.49% for the next trading day (2026-01-21), reaching $60.63.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-21 and 2026-01-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent decline in crude oil prices signals potential volatility in the market, particularly with the $61.74/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.76/b, indicating a convergence of supply/demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.
The backwardation in forward curves suggests a supportive physical market, but the selling pressure in futures indicates caution. Traders should watch for price resistance levels around $64.92 (Brent) and $60.34 (WTI) while considering short-term opportunities that may arise from fluctuations in geopolitical tensions and inventory levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The stable demand forecast for DoC crude at 43.0 mb/d in 2026 provides a foundation for production planning. However, the decrease in OPEC production by 238 tb/d in December may necessitate adjustments in output strategies.
Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and rising inventory levels, particularly in the face of geopolitical uncertainties that could impact supply reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, with WTI and Brent prices currently at $60.34 and $64.92, respectively. The declining refining margins due to increased product inventories may affect procurement strategies.
Additionally, the increased crude imports from key markets like China and Japan highlight the need for assessing supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory adjustments. Consumers might consider hedging options to safeguard against these fluctuations.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently positioned with a positive outlook driven by steady global economic growth forecasted at 3.1% for 2026. However, the decline in refining margins and inventories suggests caution in short-term projections.
The robust demand from non-OECD countries and the flattening forward curves indicate a complex interplay of factors that may influence future pricing. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and their implications for market sentiment and positioning shifts in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.