Crude oil continues to trade like a market that’s seen every movie already and isn’t impressed by the trailer anymore. This week summed it up perfectly: WTI settled just north of $60 as cold weather boosted heating oil and diesel demand, the IEA quietly nudged demand forecasts higher, and a weaker dollar gave prices a small tailwind. Yet geopolitical noise barely moved the needle. Trump’s Davos comments on Greenland and tariffs came and went with little impact, Iran has gone radio silent, and Venezuela is viewed more as a slow-burn supply risk than an immediate shock. Even with diesel futures ripping on winter demand and refinery utilization set to ease, crude remains anchored by a well-supplied global balance and the looming reality of a 2026 surplus. In short, oil can still rally, but only on tangible forces like cold-driven product demand or real supply disruptions. Headlines alone don’t cut it anymore, and until barrels actually go missing, this market looks less explosive and more methodical, grinding within its range and daring traders to confuse noise for signal.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-21 18:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating a well-supplied market, with WTI hovering just above $60. Recent cold weather has spurred heating oil and diesel demand, while the IEA has slightly raised demand forecasts. However, geopolitical tensions—like Iran's silence and Trump's Davos remarks—barely moved prices. With refinery utilization easing and the 2026 supply surplus looming, oil prices may rally only from tangible demand shifts or supply disruptions, making it crucial for traders to differentiate between market noise and actionable signals.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.92
$0.79
WTI:
$60.34
$0.9
Spread:
$4.58
(Brent premium of $4.58)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$60.47
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $59.89
MA(20): $58.63
Current Price is 60.47, 9 day MA 59.89, 20 day MA 58.63
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.5881
Signal: 0.2852
Days since crossover: 19
MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 56.86
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 56.86 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,122
Avg (20d): 224,865
Ratio: 0.0
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 71.36
%D: 65.51
Stochastic %K: 71.36, %D: 65.51. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.42
+DI: 21.77
-DI: 11.43
ADX: 22.42 (+DI: 21.77, -DI: 11.43). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -28.64
Williams %R: -28.64 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.61
Middle: 58.63
Lower: 55.66
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.61, Middle: 58.63, Lower: 55.66
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13753.0 | 13811.0 | 13563.0 | 12993.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7092.0 | 6339.0 | 6428.0 | 6801.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4306.0 | 4263.0 | 3078.0 | 4326.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16958.0 | 16909.0 | 16902.0 | 16051.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2786.0 | 2076.0 | 3350.0 | 2475.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 422447.0 | 419056.0 | 414642.0 | 430202.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1713773.0 | 1707349.0 | 1628624.0 | 1615440.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 251013.0 | 242036.0 | 237714.0 | 240630.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 129244.0 | 129273.0 | 128938.0 | 127515.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.92, change $+0.79. WTI crude (FEB 26) settled at $60.34, change $+0.9. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.58 (Brent premium of $4.58). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.92
0.79
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$60.34
0.9
(FEB 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.58
Brent premium of $4.58
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation in December, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and ongoing adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD: 0.1 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
- Non-OECD: 1.2 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December after a sharp upward trend in previous months. The decline was driven by product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
- In the Northern Hemisphere, European product flows to West Africa decreased, impacting margins.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and softening export incentives.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December, following strong gains seen earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined 12%, m-o-m
- Middle East-to-West route rates decreased 11%, m-o-m
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route fell 12%, m-o-m
- Aframax rates experienced a moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates rose as refineries ramped up operations post-maintenance, with Middle East-to-East route rates increasing by 14%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m. Japan's crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand.
- China's crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with product exports increasing.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb, with crude stocks rising by 8.1 mb and product stocks falling by 4.1 mb.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d, around 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for 2026 of 43.0 mb/d against a world demand of 106.5 mb/d, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
46
Last Updated:
2026-01-21 18:47:06
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil Futures Rise With Production Halt in Kazakhstan — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
- Oil Trims Losses But Remains Pressured by Trade Risks, Easing Supply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
- Oil Rises in Asia; Geopolitical Tensions in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as Middle East Tensions Continue to Fade — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.79
Daily:
0.15 (0.15%)
Weekly:
-0.34 (-0.34%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.98%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.73%)
SP500
6875.62
Daily:
78.76 (1.16%)
Weekly:
-50.98 (-0.74%)
VIX
16.9
Daily:
-3.19 (-15.88%)
Weekly:
0.15 (0.9%)
GOLD
4800.2
Daily:
40.6 (0.85%)
Weekly:
173.9 (3.76%)
COPPER
5.78
Daily:
0.01 (0.15%)
Weekly:
-0.23 (-3.79%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.47
Closest Support:
$59.68
1.31% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.96
0.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.78
0.382
$57.89
0.5
$58.78
0.618
$59.68
Support
0.786
$60.96
Resistance
1.0
$62.59
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.66
1.618
$67.29
2.0
$70.2
2.618
$74.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$60.34
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-21 18:47:08
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.49%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | $60.63 | $58.53 | $62.74 |
| 2026-01-22 | $60.79 | $58.69 | $62.89 |
| 2026-01-23 | $60.8 | $58.7 | $62.9 |
| 2026-01-24 | $60.7 | $58.6 | $62.81 |
| 2026-01-25 | $60.63 | $58.52 | $62.73 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.49% for the next trading day (2026-01-21), reaching $60.63.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-21 and 2026-01-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bullish with a sentiment score of +0.600. However, the overall price movements indicate a downward trend with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $61.74/b in December. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.76/b, suggesting potential convergence in prices due to changing supply dynamics. The forward curves remain in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals, despite recent selling pressure in futures markets. Traders should monitor for volatility risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of increased crude oil inventories, which rose by 8.1 mb in November, potentially affecting market prices. The hedging strategies may need adjustment in light of the decline in refining margins across all regions, driven by product inventory builds. The forecast for global oil demand growth remains stable at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, but producers should remain vigilant regarding supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical factors and production adjustments in OPEC countries.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile, with WTI settling at $60.34 and Brent at $64.92. The supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels, particularly as US crude imports remain steady while exports have increased. This could impact procurement strategies, and consumers may want to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently shaped by a mix of bullish fundamentals such as stable demand growth forecasts and bearish price movements with recent declines in both OPEC and Brent benchmarks. The backwardation in forward curves indicates a strong physical market, but the increasing inventories and CFTC positioning data show a strengthening bullish sentiment among managed money traders. Analysts should keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and their potential impact on supply dynamics, as well as the implications of the ML price predictions suggesting future price movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.