Crude oil continues to trade like a market that’s seen every movie already and isn’t impressed by the trailer anymore. This week summed it up perfectly: WTI settled just north of $60 as cold weather boosted heating oil and diesel demand, the IEA quietly nudged demand forecasts higher, and a weaker dollar gave prices a small tailwind. Yet geopolitical noise barely moved the needle. Trump’s Davos comments on Greenland and tariffs came and went with little impact, Iran has gone radio silent, and Venezuela is viewed more as a slow-burn supply risk than an immediate shock. Even with diesel futures ripping on winter demand and refinery utilization set to ease, crude remains anchored by a well-supplied global balance and the looming reality of a 2026 surplus. In short, oil can still rally, but only on tangible forces like cold-driven product demand or real supply disruptions. Headlines alone don’t cut it anymore, and until barrels actually go missing, this market looks less explosive and more methodical, grinding within its range and daring traders to confuse noise for signal. For now, the only bullish factors are geopolitical fears meanwhile demand is showing growing signs that we are in economic recession and will likely put downward pressure on crude. The range remains 61.64 to 57.35 - but when we break (which will likely be a news event), WTI will likely move $5-10 in that direction - so watch those levels closely.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-22 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently stuck in a familiar range, trading just above $60 amid mixed signals. While cold weather is boosting heating oil demand and the IEA has slightly raised demand forecasts, geopolitical tensions, such as Trump’s comments on Iran, have had little impact. Supply remains robust, with a looming surplus expected by 2026. Traders should watch key support at $57.35 and resistance at $61.64, as any substantial price movement will likely be triggered by concrete market factors rather than mere headlines.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$65.24
$0.32
WTI:
$60.62
$0.26
Spread:
$4.62
(Brent premium of $4.62)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,570
Weekly Change:
23,042
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$59.9
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $60.14
MA(20): $58.74
Current Price is 59.9, 9 day MA 60.14, 20 day MA 58.74
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.5885
Signal: 0.3478
Days since crossover: 20
MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.08
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.08 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,171
Avg (20d): 250,282
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 62.73
%D: 68.59
Stochastic %K: 62.73, %D: 68.59. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.28
+DI: 20.46
-DI: 10.34
ADX: 23.28 (+DI: 20.46, -DI: 10.34). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -37.27
Williams %R: -37.27 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.76
Middle: 58.74
Lower: 55.71
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.76, Middle: 58.74, Lower: 55.71
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13732.0 | 13753.0 | 13481.0 | 12659.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6447.0 | 7092.0 | 6124.0 | 6076.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3688.0 | 4306.0 | 4078.0 | 4552.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16604.0 | 16958.0 | 16647.0 | 15259.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2759.0 | 2786.0 | 2046.0 | 1524.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426049.0 | 422447.0 | 412680.0 | 426963.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1722117.0 | 1713773.0 | 1625682.0 | 1608339.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 256990.0 | 251013.0 | 243566.0 | 243632.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132592.0 | 129244.0 | 132015.0 | 125850.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.24, change $+0.32. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $60.62, change $+0.26. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.62 (Brent premium of $4.62). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$65.24
0.32
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$60.62
0.26
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.62
Brent premium of $4.62
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also declined by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US growth forecast: 2.1% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027
- Eurozone growth forecast: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan growth forecast: 0.9% for both years
- China growth forecast: 4.5% for both years
- India growth forecast: 6.6% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027
- Brazil growth forecast: 2.0% in 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia growth forecast: 1.3% in 2026, improving to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD demand growth forecast: 0.1 mb/d in 2027
- Non-OECD demand growth forecast: around 1.2 mb/d in 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. The decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
- In the Northern Hemisphere, margins fell due to inventory builds and reduced European product flows to West Africa.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route rates fell by 12%, m-o-m.
- Middle East-to-West route rates decreased by 11%, m-o-m.
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route fell by 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates rose by 14% on the Middle East-to-East route, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined.
- Japan's crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand.
- China's crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with increased product exports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb, which is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- Total product stocks stood at 1,494 mb, 38.6 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, with a forecast of 43.6 mb/d for 2027. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 and 43.6 mb/d in 2027. This highlights the need for strategic production decisions to address the anticipated demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-13
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: 49,910
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-13
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,018,789 contracts (+49,910)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,570 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,042 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 229,841 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -295,291 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
65
Last Updated:
2026-01-22 23:53:28
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (9 articles)
- Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on 'armada' moving to Iran spur supply worries Reuters
- Crude Oil Declines Further on Strong Inventory Trading Economics
- U.S. Ethanol Production Expected to Slip — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Higher Brazilian Ethanol Production — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil Futures Rise With Production Halt in Kazakhstan — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
- Oil Trims Losses But Remains Pressured by Trade Risks, Easing Supply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease and US Supplies Increase Barchart
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
- Oil Rises in Asia; Geopolitical Tensions in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.36
Daily:
-0.4 (-0.41%)
Weekly:
-0.96 (-0.97%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.09%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.14%)
SP500
6913.35
Daily:
37.73 (0.55%)
Weekly:
-31.12 (-0.45%)
VIX
15.64
Daily:
-1.26 (-7.46%)
Weekly:
-0.2 (-1.26%)
GOLD
4957.3
Daily:
125.5 (2.6%)
Weekly:
341.0 (7.39%)
COPPER
5.83
Daily:
0.1 (1.74%)
Weekly:
-0.12 (-2.0%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.9
Closest Support:
$59.54
0.6% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.78
1.47% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.72
0.382
$57.8
0.5
$58.67
0.618
$59.54
Support
0.786
$60.78
Resistance
1.0
$62.36
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.37
1.618
$66.92
2.0
$69.74
2.618
$74.3
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.36
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-22 23:53:30
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.01%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | $59.36 | $57.23 | $61.5 |
| 2026-01-24 | $59.21 | $57.08 | $61.34 |
| 2026-01-25 | $59.12 | $56.99 | $61.25 |
| 2026-01-26 | $59.25 | $57.12 | $61.38 |
| 2026-01-27 | $59.3 | $57.17 | $61.44 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2026-01-23), reaching $59.36.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-23 and 2026-01-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil prices is underscored by a $2.72 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket, with the Brent-WTI spread narrowing to $3.76. This indicates potential risks for short-term trading strategies. Traders should be cautious of support levels around $57.87 for WTI, while resistance could be seen near $61.74 for the ORB.
The overall market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.400. This suggests a cautious approach to entering long positions. Additionally, the managed money net position indicates a bullish trend, but traders should monitor the volatility as the market adjusts to changing inventory levels and geopolitical factors.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a decrease in crude oil production from OPEC countries, averaging 42.83 mb/d, producers should consider adjusting their production planning accordingly. The balance of supply and demand suggests a bullish outlook for demand growth in 2026, projected at 1.4 mb/d.
Given the current inventory levels, particularly the rise in OECD crude stocks by 8.1 mb, producers may want to enhance their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility. The bearish sentiment in the market could impact pricing and should be factored into operational decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude prices remain under pressure, with WTI trading around $57.87 and Brent at $61.74. The risk of supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, despite easing in some areas, remains a concern.
The strong inventory levels in the OECD, with crude stocks at 1,346 mb, suggest a relatively stable supply environment; however, the bearish sentiment in the market could lead to price drops, which consumers might leverage for procurement strategies. It's advisable to keep an eye on refining margins, which have recently declined due to inventory builds.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting a bearish sentiment, as reflected in the sentiment score of -0.400 and the declining prices across major benchmarks. The fundamental balance shows a stable demand growth forecast for 2026 at 1.4 mb/d, yet the production cuts from OPEC and the increase in non-DoC supply could lead to a complex market dynamic.
Analysts should focus on the implications of CFTC positioning, which indicates a strengthening bullish sentiment among managed money traders. This could signal potential shifts in market direction, especially as geopolitical risks could influence price volatility in the near term. Overall, the market is at a pivotal point, and continuous monitoring of both technical and