Crude oil continues to trade like a market that’s seen every movie already and isn’t impressed by the trailer anymore. This week summed it up perfectly: WTI settled just north of $60 as cold weather boosted heating oil and diesel demand, the IEA quietly nudged demand forecasts higher, and a weaker dollar gave prices a small tailwind. Yet geopolitical noise barely moved the needle. Trump’s Davos comments on Greenland and tariffs came and went with little impact, Iran has gone radio silent, and Venezuela is viewed more as a slow-burn supply risk than an immediate shock. Even with diesel futures ripping on winter demand and refinery utilization set to ease, crude remains anchored by a well-supplied global balance and the looming reality of a 2026 surplus. In short, oil can still rally, but only on tangible forces like cold-driven product demand or real supply disruptions. Headlines alone don’t cut it anymore, and until barrels actually go missing, this market looks less explosive and more methodical, grinding within its range and daring traders to confuse noise for signal. For now, the only bullish factors are geopolitical fears meanwhile demand is showing growing signs that we are in economic recession and will likely put downward pressure on crude. The range remains 61.64 to 57.35 - but when we break (which will likely be a news event), WTI will likely move $5-10 in that direction - so watch those levels closely.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-23 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil remains in a cautious range as WTI hovers just above $60, influenced by winter demand and a weaker dollar, but geopolitical concerns, particularly around Iran, fail to create significant momentum. With a well-supplied global balance and looming surplus forecasts for 2026, the market is grinding methodically, more reactive to tangible supply disruptions than headlines. Traders should keep an eye on the critical range of $61.64 to $57.35, as a breakout could lead to a swift $5-10 move in either direction.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.06
$1.18
WTI:
$59.36
$1.26
Spread:
$4.7
(Brent premium of $4.70)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,500
Weekly Change:
70
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$61.28
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $60.32
MA(20): $58.85
Current Price is 61.28, 9 day MA 60.32, 20 day MA 58.85
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.6495
Signal: 0.4012
Days since crossover: 21
MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.41
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.41 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 260,445
Avg (20d): 269,732
Ratio: 0.97
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 83.64
%D: 70.61
Stochastic %K: 83.64, %D: 70.61. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.71
+DI: 20.41
-DI: 10.19
ADX: 23.71 (+DI: 20.41, -DI: 10.19). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -16.36
Williams %R: -16.36 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 62.05
Middle: 58.85
Lower: 55.66
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.05, Middle: 58.85, Lower: 55.66
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13732.0 | 13753.0 | 13481.0 | 12659.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6447.0 | 7092.0 | 6124.0 | 6076.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3688.0 | 4306.0 | 4078.0 | 4552.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16604.0 | 16958.0 | 16647.0 | 15259.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2759.0 | 2786.0 | 2046.0 | 1524.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426049.0 | 422447.0 | 412680.0 | 426963.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1722117.0 | 1713773.0 | 1625682.0 | 1608339.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 256990.0 | 251013.0 | 243566.0 | 243632.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132592.0 | 129244.0 | 132015.0 | 125850.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.06, change $-1.18. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $59.36, change $-1.26. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.7 (Brent premium of $4.70). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.06
1.18
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$59.36
1.26
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.7
Brent premium of $4.70
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
• In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value decreased by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $2.03/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract also dropped by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
• The Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
• The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals despite selling pressure in futures markets.
• The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $2.03/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract also dropped by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
• The Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
• The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals despite selling pressure in futures markets.
• The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
• Global GDP growth is forecast at 3.1% for 2026, unchanged from last month, with an expected acceleration to 3.2% in 2027.
• The US growth forecast remains at 2.1% for 2026 and is expected to decrease slightly to 2.0% in 2027.
• Eurozone growth is projected at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan's growth forecast stands at 0.9% for both years.
• China is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, with a similar forecast for 2027.
• India's growth is forecast at 6.6% for 2026 and slightly lower at 6.5% for 2027.
• Brazil's economy is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while Russia's forecast is revised down to 1.3% for 2026 but expected to improve to 1.5% in 2027.
• The US growth forecast remains at 2.1% for 2026 and is expected to decrease slightly to 2.0% in 2027.
• Eurozone growth is projected at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan's growth forecast stands at 0.9% for both years.
• China is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, with a similar forecast for 2027.
• India's growth is forecast at 6.6% for 2026 and slightly lower at 6.5% for 2027.
• Brazil's economy is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while Russia's forecast is revised down to 1.3% for 2026 but expected to improve to 1.5% in 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
• Global oil demand growth is forecast to increase by 1.4 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2026, unchanged from previous assessments.
• OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
• For 2027, global oil demand is anticipated to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD growth remaining at around 1.2 mb/d.
• Key demand drivers include economic recovery and increased industrial activity, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
• OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
• For 2027, global oil demand is anticipated to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD growth remaining at around 1.2 mb/d.
• Key demand drivers include economic recovery and increased industrial activity, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
World Oil Supply Analysis
• Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
• Natural gas liquids (NGLs) from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027, averaging 8.8 mb/d and 8.9 mb/d respectively.
• Crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
• The outlook indicates a stable supply growth trajectory, but potential challenges could arise from geopolitical factors affecting production levels.
• Natural gas liquids (NGLs) from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027, averaging 8.8 mb/d and 8.9 mb/d respectively.
• Crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
• The outlook indicates a stable supply growth trajectory, but potential challenges could arise from geopolitical factors affecting production levels.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
• Refining margins declined across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months.
• The Northern Hemisphere saw a drop in margins due to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures.
• In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and softening export incentives contributed to the decline in refining profitability.
• The overall trend indicates a need for refiners to adapt to changing market conditions and inventory levels to maintain profitability.
• The Northern Hemisphere saw a drop in margins due to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures.
• In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and softening export incentives contributed to the decline in refining profitability.
• The overall trend indicates a need for refiners to adapt to changing market conditions and inventory levels to maintain profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
• Dirty tanker spot freight rates fell in December after strong gains earlier in the year.
• VLCC spot freight rates decreased but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route down 12%, m-o-m.
• Suezmax rates also saw a decline, dropping 12% on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route.
• In contrast, clean tanker market rates experienced upward momentum, with Middle East-to-East rates rising by 14%, m-o-m, driven by increased refinery activity.
• Long-haul demand patterns indicate a shift in trade routes, impacting freight dynamics.
• VLCC spot freight rates decreased but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route down 12%, m-o-m.
• Suezmax rates also saw a decline, dropping 12% on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route.
• In contrast, clean tanker market rates experienced upward momentum, with Middle East-to-East rates rising by 14%, m-o-m, driven by increased refinery activity.
• Long-haul demand patterns indicate a shift in trade routes, impacting freight dynamics.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
• US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m.
• In OECD Europe, crude imports rose, while product imports declined, with exports reaching the upper end of the 5-year range.
• Japan's crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand, while China's crude imports surged to 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, m-o-m.
• India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d, with product exports increasing, particularly in gasoline and naphtha.
• These trends highlight shifting trade patterns and regional demand dynamics.
• In OECD Europe, crude imports rose, while product imports declined, with exports reaching the upper end of the 5-year range.
• Japan's crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand, while China's crude imports surged to 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, m-o-m.
• India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d, with product exports increasing, particularly in gasoline and naphtha.
• These trends highlight shifting trade patterns and regional demand dynamics.
Commercial Stock Movements
• OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to 2,840 mb, which is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier.
• Crude stocks increased by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago but 20.7 mb below the latest five-year average.
• Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days, reflecting a slight increase in supply security.
• The inventory levels indicate a mixed outlook for market stability and potential supply adjustments.
• Crude stocks increased by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago but 20.7 mb below the latest five-year average.
• Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days, reflecting a slight increase in supply security.
• The inventory levels indicate a mixed outlook for market stability and potential supply adjustments.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
• Demand for DoC crude in 2026 is projected at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025, and is expected to reach 43.6 mb/d in 2027.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is forecast at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is estimated at 63.5 mb/d.
• This results in a DoC requirement gap of 42.5 mb/d, indicating a significant need for production adjustments from DoC countries to meet demand.
• The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026 and 2027:
• The world oil demand for 2026 is forecast at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is estimated at 63.5 mb/d.
• This results in a DoC requirement gap of 42.5 mb/d, indicating a significant need for production adjustments from DoC countries to meet demand.
• The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026 and 2027:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.1 | 43.8 |
• The analysis indicates a tightening supply-demand balance, necessitating strategic production decisions from OPEC members to align with market needs.
• The outlook suggests that maintaining production levels will be crucial to avoid exacerbating the supply-demand gap in the coming years.
• The outlook suggests that maintaining production levels will be crucial to avoid exacerbating the supply-demand gap in the coming years.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-20
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-20
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,964,359 contracts (-54,430)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,500 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -70 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 204,437 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -301,484 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.65
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
66
Last Updated:
2026-01-23 23:53:48
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
Top News Topics
Supply (9 articles)
- Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on 'armada' moving to Iran spur supply worries Reuters
- Crude Oil Declines Further on Strong Inventory Trading Economics
- Crude Extends Losses As U.S. Posts Inventory Build — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Ethanol Production Expected to Slip — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Higher Brazilian Ethanol Production — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil Futures Rise With Production Halt in Kazakhstan — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
Demand (3 articles)
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- Crude Oil Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Renewed Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil rises nearly 3% as US sends armada to Iran, slaps new sanctions Reuters
- Crude Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease and US Supplies Increase Barchart
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
Weather (1 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.46
Daily:
-0.9 (-0.92%)
Weekly:
-1.93 (-1.95%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.19%)
SP500
6915.61
Daily:
2.26 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-24.4 (-0.35%)
VIX
16.09
Daily:
0.45 (2.88%)
Weekly:
0.23 (1.45%)
GOLD
4983.1
Daily:
74.3 (1.51%)
Weekly:
394.7 (8.6%)
COPPER
5.94
Daily:
0.19 (3.39%)
Weekly:
0.15 (2.57%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$61.28
Closest Support:
$60.78
0.82% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$62.36
1.76% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.72
0.382
$57.8
0.5
$58.67
0.618
$59.54
0.786
$60.78
Support
1.0
$62.36
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.37
1.618
$66.92
2.0
$69.74
2.618
$74.3
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.36
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-23 23:53:50
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.0%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | $59.36 | $57.23 | $61.49 |
| 2026-01-24 | $59.21 | $57.08 | $61.35 |
| 2026-01-25 | $59.13 | $57.0 | $61.26 |
| 2026-01-26 | $59.25 | $57.12 | $61.38 |
| 2026-01-27 | $59.3 | $57.17 | $61.44 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2026-01-23), reaching $59.36.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-23 and 2026-01-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements show a decline in Crude Oil prices with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $61.74/b and WTI at $57.87/b. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.76, indicating a convergence in supply dynamics, which could lead to increased volatility as traders react to geopolitical tensions and inventory builds. The technical signals suggest potential resistance around $64.06 for Brent and $59.36 for WTI, while support levels may be tested at $57.00 for WTI. Traders should be cautious of inventory pressures that could further influence price directions in the short term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the supply-demand balance forecast remaining stable, producers should focus on hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices. The recent inventory builds, particularly a 8.1 mb increase in crude stocks, suggest that production planning should be adaptable to avoid excess supply. Additionally, the decline in refining margins indicates potential challenges in profitability, necessitating a review of operational efficiencies and cost management.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and inventory levels. The recent increase in crude imports by major economies, including China and Japan, could lead to supply reliability risks amidst tightening market conditions. Refineries might need to adjust procurement strategies to cope with the upward pressure on refining margins and consider hedging options to stabilize costs in the face of potential price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, stable global economic growth forecasts support demand, while on the other, rising inventories and geopolitical tensions introduce uncertainties. The fundamental outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with demand growth projected at 1.4 mb/d in 2026, despite the recent price declines. Analysts should monitor market sentiment and positioning data closely, as shifts in managed money positions could indicate emerging trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.