Well, geopolitical turmoil and narrative coming out of Davos. Trump had a a 180 degree turn on Greenland, backing off what was said about taking Greenland by force if there was not a reasonable purchase price. This calmed markets, but has also added pressure on the US dollar which is dropping on rising debt and rising insecurity on US trade relations. Add in that Iranian rhetoric is heating up again and you have a mix for an elevation in crude prices - mostly around concerns of escalation from he US versus Iran. The range still sits at 61.64 to 57.35 and while Friday’s rise brought us closer - we are still rangebound.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-24 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are currently influenced by a mix of geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran, and a weakened U.S. dollar amid rising debt and trade insecurities. Recent market activity has seen prices remain rangebound between $61.64 and $57.35, although Friday’s uptick brought them closer to the upper limit. As tensions escalate, traders should watch for potential price movements reflecting these risks. Key support and resistance levels will be critical in navigating this volatile landscape.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$65.88
$1.82
WTI:
$61.07
$1.71
Spread:
$4.81
(Brent premium of $4.81)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,500
Weekly Change:
70
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$61.07
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $60.3
MA(20): $58.84
Current Price is 61.07, 9 day MA 60.3, 20 day MA 58.84
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.6328
Signal: 0.3979
Days since crossover: 21
MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.78
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.78 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 324,349
Avg (20d): 272,927
Ratio: 1.19
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 80.45
%D: 69.55
Stochastic %K: 80.45, %D: 69.55. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.71
+DI: 20.41
-DI: 10.19
ADX: 23.71 (+DI: 20.41, -DI: 10.19). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -19.55
Williams %R: -19.55 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 62.0
Middle: 58.84
Lower: 55.68
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.0, Middle: 58.84, Lower: 55.68
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13732.0 | 13753.0 | 13481.0 | 12659.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6447.0 | 7092.0 | 6124.0 | 6076.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3688.0 | 4306.0 | 4078.0 | 4552.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16604.0 | 16958.0 | 16647.0 | 15259.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2759.0 | 2786.0 | 2046.0 | 1524.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426049.0 | 422447.0 | 412680.0 | 426963.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1722117.0 | 1713773.0 | 1625682.0 | 1608339.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 256990.0 | 251013.0 | 243566.0 | 243632.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132592.0 | 129244.0 | 132015.0 | 125850.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.88, change $+1.82. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $61.07, change $+1.71. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.81 (Brent premium of $4.81). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$65.88
1.82
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$61.07
1.71
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.81
Brent premium of $4.81
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also fell by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by:
- Normalization in global trade
- Fiscal support measures
- Adjustments to monetary policies in major economies
Specific growth forecasts include:
- US: 2.1% in 2026, 2% in 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% in 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% in 2026, gaining traction to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Breakdown of demand growth includes:
- OECD: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production in 2026 is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Key growth drivers include:
- Brazil
- Canada
- US
- Argentina
In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027. Crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December after a sharp upward trend in previous months. Key factors include:
- Product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels
- Seasonal demand-side pressures
- Decline in European product flows to West Africa
- Rising domestic product supplies in Southeast Asia
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December, following strong gains earlier in the year. Key movements include:
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued long-haul demand
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, and Middle East-to-West rates were down 11%
- Suezmax rates fell by 12% on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route
- Aframax rates saw a more moderate decline of 4%
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates experienced upward momentum as refineries ramped up operations post-maintenance, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14% m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports were broadly unchanged at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10% m-o-m. Key trade patterns include:
- OECD Europe: Crude imports increased m-o-m, while product imports declined
- Japan: Crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand
- China: Crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9% m-o-m
- India: Crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb. Key points include:
- OECD crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, projected to increase to 43.6 mb/d in 2027. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude to meet the growing demand. The strategic outlook suggests careful monitoring of production decisions to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-20
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-20
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,964,359 contracts (-54,430)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,500 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -70 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 204,437 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -301,484 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
49
Last Updated:
2026-01-24 23:53:16
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on 'armada' moving to Iran spur supply worries Reuters
- Crude Oil Declines Further on Strong Inventory Trading Economics
- Crude Extends Losses As U.S. Posts Inventory Build — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Ethanol Production Expected to Slip — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Higher Brazilian Ethanol Production — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Edges Higher, Aided by Prospects of Stronger Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (8 articles)
- Crude Oil Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Renewed Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil rises nearly 3% as US sends armada to Iran, slaps new sanctions Reuters
- Crude Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease and US Supplies Increase Barchart
- Oil Retreats on Lower Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.6
Daily:
-0.76 (-0.77%)
Weekly:
-1.79 (-1.8%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.19%)
SP500
6915.61
Daily:
2.26 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-24.4 (-0.35%)
VIX
16.09
Daily:
0.45 (2.88%)
Weekly:
0.23 (1.45%)
GOLD
4976.2
Daily:
67.4 (1.37%)
Weekly:
387.8 (8.45%)
COPPER
5.91
Daily:
0.17 (2.93%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.12%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$61.07
Closest Support:
$60.78
0.47% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$62.36
2.11% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.72
0.382
$57.8
0.5
$58.67
0.618
$59.54
0.786
$60.78
Support
1.0
$62.36
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.37
1.618
$66.92
2.0
$69.74
2.618
$74.3
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$61.07
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-24 23:53:18
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.24%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | $60.92 | $58.72 | $63.12 |
| 2026-01-25 | $60.91 | $58.71 | $63.11 |
| 2026-01-26 | $61.05 | $58.86 | $63.25 |
| 2026-01-27 | $60.91 | $58.71 | $63.1 |
| 2026-01-28 | $60.86 | $58.67 | $63.06 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.24% for the next trading day (2026-01-24), reaching $60.92.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-24 and 2026-01-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent decline in crude oil prices suggests potential volatility in the short term. The $61.63 average for ICE Brent and $57.87 for NYMEX WTI indicates a bearish sentiment, especially with the Brent-WTI spread narrowing to $3.76. Traders should monitor the persistent selling pressure in futures markets and consider the implications of the backwardation in the forward curves for short-term opportunities or risks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current production levels show a decrease of 238 tb/d from DoC countries, which may affect production planning. Producers should evaluate hedging strategies in light of the rising OECD crude oil commercial stocks and ongoing inventory builds. The market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuating demand forecasts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude oil prices are currently $61.07 for WTI and $65.88 for Brent. The increased inventory levels could signal a supply reliability risk, particularly amid geopolitical tensions. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for these dynamics to mitigate potential cost impacts.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment despite a positive short-term supply-demand outlook. Key driving factors include the steady demand growth forecast of 1.4 mb/d for 2026, alongside declining refining margins and geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts should closely watch the CFTC positioning which indicates a potential shift in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.