Well, geopolitical turmoil and narrative coming out of Davos. Trump had a a 180 degree turn on Greenland, backing off what was said about taking Greenland by force if there was not a reasonable purchase price. This calmed markets, but has also added pressure on the US dollar which is dropping on rising debt and rising insecurity on US trade relations. Add in that Iranian rhetoric is heating up again and you have a mix for an elevation in crude prices - mostly around concerns of escalation from he US versus Iran. The range still sits at 61.64 to 57.35 and while Friday’s rise brought us closer - we are still rangebound.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-25 23:55
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil markets are currently navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical tensions and fluctuating dollar strength. Recent developments, including easing fears from Davos and heightened rhetoric from Iran, have created upward pressure on prices, maintaining a range between $61.64 and $57.35. The dollar's weakness, driven by rising U.S. debt and trade insecurities, adds to this volatility. Traders should keep an eye on potential support levels around $60.62 and be prepared for technical corrections as the market reacts to these influences.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$65.88
$1.82
WTI:
$61.07
$1.71
Spread:
$4.81
(Brent premium of $4.81)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,500
Weekly Change:
70
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$61.17
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $60.48
MA(20): $58.98
Current Price is 61.17, 9 day MA 60.48, 20 day MA 58.98
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.702
Signal: 0.4587
Days since crossover: 22
MACD crossed the line 22 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.1
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.1 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 24,225
Avg (20d): 268,550
Ratio: 0.09
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 81.97
%D: 72.32
Stochastic %K: 81.97, %D: 72.32. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 24.4
+DI: 19.82
-DI: 9.9
ADX: 24.4 (+DI: 19.82, -DI: 9.9). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -18.03
Williams %R: -18.03 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 62.29
Middle: 58.98
Lower: 55.68
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.29, Middle: 58.98, Lower: 55.68
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13732.0 | 13753.0 | 13481.0 | 12659.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6447.0 | 7092.0 | 6124.0 | 6076.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3688.0 | 4306.0 | 4078.0 | 4552.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16604.0 | 16958.0 | 16647.0 | 15259.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2759.0 | 2786.0 | 2046.0 | 1524.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426049.0 | 422447.0 | 412680.0 | 426963.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1722117.0 | 1713773.0 | 1625682.0 | 1608339.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 256990.0 | 251013.0 | 243566.0 | 243632.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132592.0 | 129244.0 | 132015.0 | 125850.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.88, change $+1.82. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $61.07, change $+1.71. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.81 (Brent premium of $4.81). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$65.88
1.82
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$61.07
1.71
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.81
Brent premium of $4.81
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation in December, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook. Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and ongoing adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US growth forecast: 2.1% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone growth forecast: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan growth forecast: 0.9% for both years
- China growth forecast: 4.5% for both years
- India growth forecast: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil growth forecast: 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia growth forecast: 1.3% for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD demand growth forecast: 0.1 mb/d for 2027
- Non-OECD demand growth forecast: 1.2 mb/d for both years
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. The decline in the Northern Hemisphere was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
- European product flows to West Africa decreased, contributing to margin drops.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, m-o-m.
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe fell by 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
- Clean tanker market rates rose by 14% on the Middle East-to-East route, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports and a decline in product imports.
- China's crude imports surged to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with increased product exports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November data shows OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to 2,840 mb, which is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier.
- Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.4 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 against a non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d. This gap highlights the need for strategic production decisions moving forward to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-20
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-20
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,964,359 contracts (-54,430)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,500 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -70 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 204,437 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -301,484 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
36
Last Updated:
2026-01-25 23:53:50
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Oil Ticks Up Amid Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
- Crude Oil Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Renewed Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil rises nearly 3% as US sends armada to Iran, slaps new sanctions Reuters
- Crude Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease and US Supplies Increase Barchart
- Oil Retreats on Lower Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.11
Daily:
-0.49 (-0.5%)
Weekly:
-1.53 (-1.55%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.19%)
SP500
6915.61
Daily:
2.26 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-24.4 (-0.35%)
VIX
16.09
Daily:
0.45 (2.88%)
Weekly:
0.23 (1.45%)
GOLD
5063.0
Daily:
86.8 (1.74%)
Weekly:
303.4 (6.37%)
COPPER
5.96
Daily:
0.05 (0.82%)
Weekly:
0.19 (3.23%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$61.17
Closest Support:
$60.78
0.64% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$62.36
1.95% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.72
0.382
$57.8
0.5
$58.67
0.618
$59.54
0.786
$60.78
Support
1.0
$62.36
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.37
1.618
$66.92
2.0
$69.74
2.618
$74.3
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$61.07
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-25 23:53:53
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.25%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | $60.92 | $58.72 | $63.12 |
| 2026-01-25 | $60.9 | $58.7 | $63.1 |
| 2026-01-26 | $61.05 | $58.85 | $63.25 |
| 2026-01-27 | $60.9 | $58.7 | $63.09 |
| 2026-01-28 | $60.86 | $58.66 | $63.05 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.25% for the next trading day (2026-01-24), reaching $60.92.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-24 and 2026-01-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.600, indicates potential challenges for price stability. The $61.63 average for ICE Brent and $57.87 for NYMEX WTI suggest a support level around these prices, while the $3.76 Brent-WTI spread indicates ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent.
The backwardation in forward curves suggests short-term opportunities amid physical market strength, despite volatility pressures. Traders should monitor the resistance levels that could arise from geopolitical tensions and inventory builds, particularly as managed money positioning remains in a normal range, signaling potential price reversals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With crude oil production from DoC countries declining by 238 tb/d in December, producers may need to adjust production planning strategies to align with the supply-demand balance. The $61.74 average price of the OPEC Reference Basket may necessitate hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices.
The increase in OECD commercial crude stocks by 8.1 mb signals a need for cautious inventory management. The bearish market sentiment could further impact operations, emphasizing the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and refining margin pressures as they may influence production decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices hover around $57.87 and $61.63, respectively. With geopolitical risks and strong inventory builds affecting supply reliability, procurement strategies should consider these factors, especially as 12.4 mb/d of crude imports to China indicate rising demand.
The decline in refining margins across regions highlights the importance of hedging against price volatility. Companies should analyze the implications of the bearish market sentiment and the potential for further inventory builds, which could impact future procurement decisions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market reflects a complex interplay of bearish sentiment, declining prices, and fluctuating inventory levels. The fundamental balance appears strained, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, countered by rising non-DoC liquids production.
The sentiment score of -0.600 indicates a cautious outlook. Analysts should focus on the implications of managed money positioning and geopolitical developments, as these factors could signal shifts in market dynamics. The backwardation in forward curves suggests potential bullish scenarios, but vigilance is required to navigate the prevailing market risks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.