Well, geopolitical turmoil and narrative coming out of Davos. Trump had a a 180 degree turn on Greenland, backing off what was said about taking Greenland by force if there was not a reasonable purchase price. This calmed markets, but has also added pressure on the US dollar which is dropping on rising debt and rising insecurity on US trade relations. Add in that Iranian rhetoric is heating up again and you have a mix for an elevation in crude prices - mostly around concerns of escalation from he US versus Iran. The range still sits at 61.64 to 57.35 and while Friday’s rise brought us closer - we are still rangebound. Kazakhstan’s outage has eased and we find that crude is (yet again) debating why we are not below $60 - without geopolitical supply concerns (of which Iran and Strait of Hormuz are the only thing crude traders seem to respond to right now.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-26 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil markets are currently navigating a delicate geopolitical landscape, with tensions surrounding Iran and the U.S. influencing price dynamics. Recent fluctuations have kept crude in a range between $57.35 and $61.64, despite a winter storm temporarily curbing U.S. output. However, easing disruptions in Kazakhstan have added bearish pressure. With the U.S. dollar weakening under rising debt concerns, traders are left to ponder: will geopolitical risks propel prices above $60, or will they remain rangebound? Watch for developments in U.S.-Iran relations and domestic production shifts.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$65.88
$1.82
WTI:
$61.07
$1.71
Spread:
$4.81
(Brent premium of $4.81)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,500
Weekly Change:
70
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$60.27
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $60.38
MA(20): $58.94
Current Price is 60.27, 9 day MA 60.38, 20 day MA 58.94
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.6302
Signal: 0.4444
Days since crossover: 22
MACD crossed the line 22 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.41
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.41 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,319
Avg (20d): 265,908
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 68.33
%D: 67.78
Stochastic %K: 68.33, %D: 67.78. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 24.4
+DI: 19.68
-DI: 9.83
ADX: 24.4 (+DI: 19.68, -DI: 9.83). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -31.67
Williams %R: -31.67 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 62.15
Middle: 58.94
Lower: 55.73
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.15, Middle: 58.94, Lower: 55.73
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13732.0 | 13753.0 | 13481.0 | 12659.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6447.0 | 7092.0 | 6124.0 | 6076.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3688.0 | 4306.0 | 4078.0 | 4552.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16604.0 | 16958.0 | 16647.0 | 15259.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2759.0 | 2786.0 | 2046.0 | 1524.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426049.0 | 422447.0 | 412680.0 | 426963.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1722117.0 | 1713773.0 | 1625682.0 | 1608339.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 256990.0 | 251013.0 | 243566.0 | 243632.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132592.0 | 129244.0 | 132015.0 | 125850.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.88, change $+1.82. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $61.07, change $+1.71. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.81 (Brent premium of $4.81). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$65.88
1.82
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$61.07
1.71
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.81
Brent premium of $4.81
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, averaging $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook. Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly, while the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an expected acceleration to 3.2% in 2027. This outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD growth: 0.1 mb/d in 2027
- Non-OECD growth: approximately 1.2 mb/d in 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years.
Recent trends indicate that crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December after a sharp upward trend in previous months. This decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures.
- Decline in European product flows to West Africa contributed to margin drops.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, m-o-m.
- Middle East-to-West route rates fell by 11%, m-o-m.
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route decreased by 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
- Clean tanker market saw upward momentum with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained broadly unchanged at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined.
- Japan's crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand.
- China's crude imports jumped to an average of 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- OECD product stocks stood at 1,494 mb, 38.6 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d, around 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.
The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
The supply-demand gap indicates a requirement for DoC crude of 43.0 mb/d against a world demand of 106.5 mb/d and non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d. This analysis underscores the importance of strategic production decisions moving forward to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-20
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-20
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,964,359 contracts (-54,430)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,500 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -70 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 204,437 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -301,484 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
31
Last Updated:
2026-01-26 23:53:29
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Oil Ticks Up Amid Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
- Crude Oil Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Futures Rebound on Iran, Russia-Ukraine Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Renewed Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil rises nearly 3% as US sends armada to Iran, slaps new sanctions Reuters
Weather (3 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.14
Daily:
-0.46 (-0.47%)
Weekly:
-1.5 (-1.52%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.91%)
SP500
6950.23
Daily:
34.62 (0.5%)
Weekly:
153.37 (2.26%)
VIX
16.15
Daily:
0.06 (0.37%)
Weekly:
-3.94 (-19.61%)
GOLD
5059.5
Daily:
83.3 (1.67%)
Weekly:
299.9 (6.3%)
COPPER
5.88
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.54%)
Weekly:
0.11 (1.84%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.27
Closest Support:
$59.54
1.21% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.78
0.85% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.72
0.382
$57.8
0.5
$58.67
0.618
$59.54
Support
0.786
$60.78
Resistance
1.0
$62.36
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$64.37
1.618
$66.92
2.0
$69.74
2.618
$74.3
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$60.63
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-26 23:53:31
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.03%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | $60.61 | $58.5 | $62.73 |
| 2026-01-28 | $60.76 | $58.64 | $62.87 |
| 2026-01-29 | $60.6 | $58.48 | $62.71 |
| 2026-01-30 | $60.59 | $58.48 | $62.7 |
| 2026-01-31 | $60.6 | $58.49 | $62.72 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2026-01-27), reaching $60.61.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-27 and 2026-01-31.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements show a decline in the OPEC Reference Basket value to an average of $61.74/b, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI also experiencing decreases. Despite these declines, the forward curves remain in backwardation, indicating potential support levels for short-term prices.
The $4.81 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics, suggesting traders should monitor this spread closely for arbitrage opportunities. The slight decrease in managed money positions indicates a weakening bullish sentiment, which could lead to increased volatility. Traders should remain vigilant for resistance levels around $65 for Brent and $62 for WTI.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The supply-demand balance suggests a stable outlook for production planning. With a forecasted demand for DoC crude at 43.0 mb/d for 2026, producers should consider adjusting output to align with this demand while managing inventory levels, which have seen a rise in crude stocks by 8.1 mb in November.
The current market sentiment is weakening, which may impact pricing strategies. Producers should evaluate their hedging strategies against potential price declines, particularly as refining margins have dropped due to inventory builds. Keeping a close eye on geopolitical risks and weather impacts is essential for maintaining operational stability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude prices averaging around $61.74/b, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs. The supply reliability risks from geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions, such as winter storms impacting production, could lead to cost volatility in the near term.
It's prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies that include hedging against price increases, especially given the current market sentiment and the recent increase in crude imports from major markets like China and India. Monitoring the balance of inventories will be crucial for ensuring supply chain stability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a mixed picture, with bearish sentiment emerging from technical indicators and news sentiment analysis, despite some fundamental support from ongoing demand forecasts. The global oil demand growth remains steady at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, primarily driven by non-OECD countries.
Analysts should note the increasing inventories and declining refining margins as potential bearish indicators. However, the backwardation in forward curves suggests that short-term price support may hold. Continuous monitoring of geopolitical developments and economic indicators will be essential to anticipate shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.