A US military buildup in the Middle East is drawing speculation that there will be an attack on Iran from the US. Add in that there is no momentum on Ukraine-Russian peace agreements this raises tension that conflict around a significant portion of the Global Crude supply could face disruptions. Lastly, add in that the US weather storm Fern has shut in some 10% of the US supply. WTI finally broke above the 61.64 level that may push crude all the way up to 66.84 as the next technical level. The only concern against that bullish setup is that global demand has yet to show significant improvement (yet). For now - watching 61.64 as the key support. Beyond that level 66.84 seems to be the logical next step.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-27 23:55
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is navigating a charged landscape, fueled by US military buildups in the Middle East and a lack of progress on Ukraine-Russian peace talks, raising concerns over global supply disruptions. Despite these tensions, WTI has breached the $61.64 support level, eyeing $66.84 next. However, global demand remains weak, creating a tug-of-war for prices. Recent articles highlight a drop in US crude inventories and a steady dollar, suggesting potential volatility ahead as traders monitor geopolitical developments and demand signals.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$65.59
$0.29
WTI:
$60.63
$0.44
Spread:
$4.96
(Brent premium of $4.96)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,500
Weekly Change:
70
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$62.75
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $60.6
MA(20): $59.26
Current Price is 62.75, 9 day MA 60.6, 20 day MA 59.26
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.841
Signal: 0.5283
Days since crossover: 23
MACD crossed the line 23 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 62.32
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 62.32 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 17,927
Avg (20d): 271,908
Ratio: 0.07
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 98.45
%D: 84.23
Stochastic %K: 98.45, %D: 84.23. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.1
+DI: 23.38
-DI: 8.78
ADX: 26.1 (+DI: 23.38, -DI: 8.78). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -1.55
Williams %R: -1.55 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 62.73
Middle: 59.26
Lower: 55.79
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 62.73, Middle: 59.26, Lower: 55.79
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13732.0 | 13753.0 | 13481.0 | 12659.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6447.0 | 7092.0 | 6124.0 | 6076.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3688.0 | 4306.0 | 4078.0 | 4552.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16604.0 | 16958.0 | 16647.0 | 15259.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2759.0 | 2786.0 | 2046.0 | 1524.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 426049.0 | 422447.0 | 412680.0 | 426963.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1722117.0 | 1713773.0 | 1625682.0 | 1608339.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 256990.0 | 251013.0 | 243566.0 | 243632.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132592.0 | 129244.0 | 132015.0 | 125850.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.59, change $-0.29. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $60.63, change $-0.44. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.96 (Brent premium of $4.96). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$65.59
0.29
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$60.63
0.44
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.96
Brent premium of $4.96
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation in December, signaling supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook. Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and ongoing adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is projected to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD: 0.1 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
- Non-OECD: 1.2 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging 42.83 mb/d
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. This decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
- In the Northern Hemisphere, European product flows to West Africa decreased
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and softening export incentives
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route rates fell by 12%, m-o-m
- Middle East-to-West route rates decreased by 11%, m-o-m
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe fell by 12%, m-o-m
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market saw upward momentum with Middle East-to-East rates rising by 14%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m. In OECD Europe, crude imports rose, while product imports continued to decline.
- Japan's crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d in November, supported by regional demand
- China's crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m
- India's crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with product exports increasing
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb. This level is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier and 0.3 mb above the latest five-year average.
- OECD crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.2 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 against a non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, highlighting the strategic importance of production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-20
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-20
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,964,359 contracts (-54,430)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,500 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -70 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 204,437 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -301,484 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
35
Last Updated:
2026-01-27 23:53:52
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Oil Ticks Up Amid Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
Weather (5 articles)
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
- Storm-Driven Diesel Futures Offer Crude Some Support — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices settle lower as traders assess impact of winter storm on production Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.11
Daily:
-0.93 (-0.96%)
Weekly:
-2.65 (-2.68%)
US_10Y
4.22
Daily:
0.01 (0.24%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.71%)
SP500
6978.6
Daily:
28.37 (0.41%)
Weekly:
102.98 (1.5%)
VIX
16.35
Daily:
0.2 (1.24%)
Weekly:
-0.55 (-3.25%)
GOLD
5237.0
Daily:
157.3 (3.1%)
Weekly:
405.2 (8.39%)
COPPER
5.98
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.07%)
Weekly:
0.25 (4.37%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$62.75
Closest Support:
$61.17
2.52% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$62.86
0.18% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$56.84
0.382
$57.99
0.5
$58.92
0.618
$59.85
0.786
$61.17
Support
1.0
$62.86
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$65.0
1.618
$67.73
2.0
$70.74
2.618
$75.61
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$62.39
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-27 23:53:54
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.21%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | $62.52 | $60.34 | $64.71 |
| 2026-01-29 | $62.44 | $60.25 | $64.62 |
| 2026-01-30 | $62.45 | $60.27 | $64.64 |
| 2026-01-31 | $62.26 | $60.08 | $64.45 |
| 2026-02-01 | $62.19 | $60.0 | $64.37 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2026-01-28), reaching $62.52.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-28 and 2026-02-01.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements show a decline in key benchmarks, with the Brent and WTI contracts down month-on-month. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.76/b, indicating potential volatility as market dynamics shift between global and U.S. supply-demand. Traders should watch for resistance levels around the $65 mark for Brent and $60 for WTI, which may serve as significant psychological barriers.
The weakening sentiment from managed money positions suggests caution, especially with open interest declining. As short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations, traders should consider leveraging technical analysis to identify entry and exit points.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market dynamics indicate a need for careful production planning. With global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, producers should align output with anticipated demand from both OECD and non-OECD regions. The recent decline in crude inventories suggests a tightening supply scenario, which could support prices in the medium term.
Producers may want to revisit their hedging strategies in light of the market sentiment and the potential for price volatility. Additionally, monitoring inventory levels closely will be crucial to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand and geopolitical uncertainties.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With the current price levels for WTI averaging around $57.87/b and Brent at $61.74/b, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The supply reliability risks remain, especially with geopolitical tensions and the recent shifts in crude imports from key markets like China and India.
Given the seasonal demand pressures and potential impacts from weather patterns, consumers may want to consider strategic procurement or hedging to manage costs effectively. Maintaining flexibility in contracts could also be beneficial as market conditions evolve.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a mixed picture, with strong demand forecasts countered by recent price declines. The fundamental balance remains supportive due to expected growth in non-OECD demand and stabilization in global economic growth, projected at 3.1% for 2026.
However, technical indicators show weakening sentiment from managed money positions, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should focus on the interplay of supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitical factors, and refining margins, as these will be critical in determining the market outlook in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy