A US military buildup in the Middle East is drawing speculation that there will be an attack on Iran from the US. Add in that there is no momentum on Ukraine-Russian peace agreements this raises tension that conflict around a significant portion of the Global Crude supply could face disruptions. Lastly, add in that the US weather storm Fern has shut in some 10% of the US supply. WTI finally broke above the 61.64 level that may push crude all the way up to 66.84 as the next technical level. The only concern against that bullish setup is that global demand has yet to show significant improvement (yet). US is building military presence in the Middle East and the crude market broke above the 61.64 resistance level that indicates a path to 66.84 as the next stip
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-28 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are on the rise, bolstered by heightened geopolitical tensions, notably the US military buildup in the Middle East and ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which could threaten global supply. Recent technical analysis shows WTI has broken the $61.64 resistance, potentially reaching $66.84. However, global demand remains a concern. Additionally, a recent decline in US crude oil stocks adds a bullish undertone. Keep an eye on these developments as they may shape market dynamics in the near future!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$67.57
$1.98
WTI:
$62.39
$1.76
Spread:
$5.18
(Brent premium of $5.18)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,500
Weekly Change:
70
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$64.29
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $60.81
MA(20): $59.55
Current Price is 64.29, 9 day MA 60.81, 20 day MA 59.55
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.0748
Signal: 0.633
Days since crossover: 24
MACD crossed the line 24 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 66.25
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 66.25 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 27,897
Avg (20d): 281,488
Ratio: 0.1
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 99.88
%D: 90.06
Stochastic %K: 99.88, %D: 90.06. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 28.0
+DI: 27.07
-DI: 8.05
ADX: 28.0 (+DI: 27.07, -DI: 8.05). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -0.12
Williams %R: -0.12 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 63.55
Middle: 59.55
Lower: 55.55
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 63.55, Middle: 59.55, Lower: 55.55
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13696.0 | 13732.0 | 13477.0 | 12813.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5642.0 | 6447.0 | 6745.0 | 6445.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4589.0 | 3688.0 | 4515.0 | 3690.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16209.0 | 16604.0 | 15522.0 | 14999.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1053.0 | 2759.0 | 2230.0 | 2754.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 423754.0 | 426049.0 | 411663.0 | 429908.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1715851.0 | 1722117.0 | 1621794.0 | 1601425.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 257213.0 | 256990.0 | 245898.0 | 245862.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132921.0 | 132592.0 | 128945.0 | 124112.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $67.57, change $+1.98. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $62.39, change $+1.76. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.18 (Brent premium of $5.18). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$67.57
1.98
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$62.39
1.76
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.18
Brent premium of $5.18
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also fell by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
Key growth forecasts include: • US: 2.1% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027 • Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027 • Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027 • China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027 • India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027 • Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027 • Russia: 1.3% for 2026, forecast to reach 1.5% in 2027
Key growth forecasts include: • US: 2.1% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027 • Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027 • Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027 • China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027 • India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027 • Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027 • Russia: 1.3% for 2026, forecast to reach 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
Demand growth breakdown: • OECD: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2027 • Non-OECD: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2027
Demand growth breakdown: • OECD: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2027 • Non-OECD: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. This growth is expected to continue into 2027.
Key growth drivers include: • Brazil • Canada • Qatar • Argentina
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Key growth drivers include: • Brazil • Canada • Qatar • Argentina
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December after a sharp upward trend in previous months. In the Northern Hemisphere, this decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures.
Additional factors affecting refining margins include: • Decline in European product flows to West Africa • Rising domestic product supplies in Southeast Asia • Softening export incentives
Additional factors affecting refining margins include: • Decline in European product flows to West Africa • Rising domestic product supplies in Southeast Asia • Softening export incentives
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
Specific rate movements include: • Middle East-to-East route: down 12%, m-o-m • Middle East-to-West route: down 11%, m-o-m • Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe: down 12%, m-o-m • Aframax rates in the Cross-Med: down 4%, m-o-m
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased due to rising refinery activity, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14%, m-o-m.
Specific rate movements include: • Middle East-to-East route: down 12%, m-o-m • Middle East-to-West route: down 11%, m-o-m • Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe: down 12%, m-o-m • Aframax rates in the Cross-Med: down 4%, m-o-m
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased due to rising refinery activity, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
Key regional trade patterns include: • OECD Europe: increased crude imports, declining product imports, and rising product exports • Japan: crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand • China: crude imports reached 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, while product imports showed strength • India: crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with increased product exports
Key regional trade patterns include: • OECD Europe: increased crude imports, declining product imports, and rising product exports • Japan: crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand • China: crude imports reached 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, while product imports showed strength • India: crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with increased product exports
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb. This level is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier and 0.3 mb above the latest five-year average.
Specific stock changes include: • Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m • OECD crude oil commercial stocks: 1,346 mb • OECD total product stocks: 1,494 mb
Days of forward cover increased by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.2 days.
Specific stock changes include: • Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m • OECD crude oil commercial stocks: 1,346 mb • OECD total product stocks: 1,494 mb
Days of forward cover increased by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
The supply-demand balance is summarized in the following table:
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 and 43.6 mb/d in 2027. This gap highlights the need for strategic production decisions to maintain market balance.
The supply-demand balance is summarized in the following table:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 and 43.6 mb/d in 2027. This gap highlights the need for strategic production decisions to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-20
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-20
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,964,359 contracts (-54,430)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,500 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -70 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 204,437 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -301,484 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.65
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
48
Last Updated:
2026-01-28 23:53:21
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
- Oil prices settle lower as traders assess impact of winter storm on production Reuters
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Prices Mixed; May be Supported by Lingering Middle East Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise On Geopolitical Apprehension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Ticks Up Amid Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
Weather (6 articles)
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
- Storm-Driven Diesel Futures Offer Crude Some Support — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices settle lower as traders assess impact of winter storm on production Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.11
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.12%)
Weekly:
-2.25 (-2.29%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
0.03 (0.66%)
Weekly:
0.0 (0.05%)
SP500
6978.03
Daily:
-0.57 (-0.01%)
Weekly:
64.68 (0.94%)
VIX
16.35
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.71 (4.54%)
GOLD
5587.6
Daily:
507.7 (9.99%)
Weekly:
678.8 (13.83%)
COPPER
6.32
Daily:
0.49 (8.48%)
Weekly:
0.58 (10.1%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$64.29
Closest Support:
$62.31
3.08% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.3
0.02% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.18
0.382
$58.54
0.5
$59.64
0.618
$60.74
0.786
$62.31
Support
1.0
$64.3
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$66.84
1.618
$70.06
2.0
$73.62
2.618
$79.38
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$63.21
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-28 23:53:24
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.14%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | $63.12 | $60.93 | $65.32 |
| 2026-01-30 | $63.17 | $60.97 | $65.37 |
| 2026-01-31 | $62.99 | $60.79 | $65.18 |
| 2026-02-01 | $62.83 | $60.63 | $65.03 |
| 2026-02-02 | $62.8 | $60.61 | $65.0 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.14% for the next trading day (2026-01-29), reaching $63.12.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-29 and 2026-02-02.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest bullish sentiment, but with signs of weakening. The $61.74/b average for OPEC and $61.63/b for ICE Brent indicate a potential for price stabilization, yet the $3.76/b Brent-WTI spread suggests a divergence in supply/demand dynamics that traders should monitor closely.
Volatility may arise from geopolitical tensions and weather impacts, particularly as the winter storm has affected US output. Traders might find short-term opportunities in the support levels around $57.87/b for WTI and resistance near $67.57/b for Brent.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decrease in 238 tb/d in DoC crude production indicates potential challenges in meeting demand forecasts of 43.0 mb/d for 2026. Producers should consider adjusting production planning and hedging strategies accordingly to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating inventory levels and market sentiment.
With OECD commercial inventories rising to 2,840 mb, the balance between supply and demand is crucial. A proactive approach to managing output and hedging against price drops may be prudent given the current market conditions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
As crude prices hover around $61.74/b, consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations. The winter storm impacts on supply could lead to price spikes, particularly for refined products.
Supply reliability may be jeopardized by geopolitical tensions and rising inventory levels, making it essential for consumers to reassess their procurement strategies and consider hedging to protect against price volatility in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment, underpinned by a steady global economic growth forecast of 3.1% for 2026. However, the balance between supply and demand is tightening, with non-DoC production growth expected to be moderate.
Key driving factors include the impact of weather on US output, geopolitical risks affecting pricing, and the flattening of forward curves indicating potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should keep a close watch on these indicators as they may signal shifts in market outlook and trading strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.