A US military buildup in the Middle East is drawing speculation that there will be an attack on Iran from the US. Add in that there is no momentum on Ukraine-Russian peace agreements this raises tension that conflict around a significant portion of the Global Crude supply could face disruptions. Lastly, add in that the US weather storm Fern has shut in some 10% of the US supply. WTI finally broke above the 61.64 level that may push crude all the way up to 66.84 as the next technical level. The only concern against that bullish setup is that global demand has yet to show significant improvement (yet). US is building military presence in the Middle East and the crude market broke above the 61.64 resistance level that indicates a path to 66.84 as the next stop. It certainly seems as if a conflict is on the horizon and when traders are slowly building positions - it adds conviction from the markets of that direction. As traders are adding more positions to the mix it appears that traders are more and more confident that conflict is imminent (note we started this move up $5 ago). Crude finally snapped above $61.64, unlocking a technical runway toward $66.84 as geopolitics pile up fast. Rising U.S. military presence near Iran, stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and ~10% U.S. supply shut-ins from Winter Storm Fern have tightened near-term supply optics. WTI ~$63.6, Brent ~$69. But the speed bump? Global demand still hasn’t shown real lift. Supply fear is driving. Demand conviction is still TBD.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-29 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are experiencing upward momentum, driven by rising U.S. military presence in the Middle East and ongoing tensions with Iran. Recent technical movements show WTI has broken above the critical $61.64 level, signaling potential advancement toward $66.84. However, global demand remains tepid, raising questions about sustainability. Additionally, supply disruptions due to Winter Storm Fern have compounded the situation, with approximately 10% of U.S. supply affected. Traders are cautiously optimistic as geopolitical factors tighten supply outlooks.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$68.4
$0.83
WTI:
$63.21
$0.82
Spread:
$5.19
(Brent premium of $5.19)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
47,500
Weekly Change:
70
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$64.37
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $61.27
MA(20): $59.82
Current Price is 64.37, 9 day MA 61.27, 20 day MA 59.82
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.208
Signal: 0.7342
Days since crossover: 25
MACD crossed the line 25 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 66.62
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 66.62 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 47,946
Avg (20d): 293,043
Ratio: 0.16
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 81.84
%D: 91.2
Stochastic %K: 81.84, %D: 91.2. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 30.13
+DI: 30.9
-DI: 7.35
ADX: 30.13 (+DI: 30.9, -DI: 7.35). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -18.16
Williams %R: -18.16 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 64.07
Middle: 59.82
Lower: 55.57
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 64.07, Middle: 59.82, Lower: 55.57
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13696.0 | 13732.0 | 13477.0 | 12813.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5642.0 | 6447.0 | 6745.0 | 6445.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4589.0 | 3688.0 | 4515.0 | 3690.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16209.0 | 16604.0 | 15522.0 | 14999.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1053.0 | 2759.0 | 2230.0 | 2754.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 423754.0 | 426049.0 | 411663.0 | 429908.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1715851.0 | 1722117.0 | 1621794.0 | 1601425.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 257213.0 | 256990.0 | 245898.0 | 245862.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132921.0 | 132592.0 | 128945.0 | 124112.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $68.4, change $+0.83. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $63.21, change $+0.82. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.19 (Brent premium of $5.19). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$68.4
0.83
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$63.21
0.82
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.19
Brent premium of $5.19
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also decreased by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD: 0.1 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
- Non-OECD: 1.2 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December after a sharp upward trend in previous months. The decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
- In the Northern Hemisphere, European product flows to West Africa decreased, contributing to the margin drop.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and firm product availability from the Middle East, affecting refining profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year.
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, while Middle East-to-West rates fell by 11%, m-o-m.
- Suezmax rates also saw a decline, with rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route down 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates rose by 14% on the Middle East-to-East route, reflecting increased long-haul demand.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined and exports surged to the upper end of the 5-year range.
- Japan's crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional product demand.
- China's crude imports rose to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb, which is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier.
- Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d, around 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude to meet the projected demand. The gap between world demand and non-DoC supply highlights the necessity for strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-20
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-20
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,964,359 contracts (-54,430)
Managed Money Net Position: 47,500 contracts (2.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -70 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 204,437 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -301,484 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
59
Last Updated:
2026-01-29 23:53:40
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil Prices Can Stay High Despite Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Oil Futures Make Headway on Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Geopolitical Risk Premium Gives Oil A Further Lift — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Mixed; May be Supported by Lingering Middle East Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise On Geopolitical Apprehension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (6 articles)
- Oil Extends Gains on Iran Risks, U.S. Winter Storm Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
- Storm-Driven Diesel Futures Offer Crude Some Support — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.54
Daily:
0.09 (0.09%)
Weekly:
-1.06 (-1.09%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.56%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.28%)
SP500
6969.01
Daily:
-9.02 (-0.13%)
Weekly:
53.4 (0.77%)
VIX
16.88
Daily:
0.53 (3.24%)
Weekly:
0.79 (4.91%)
GOLD
5239.7
Daily:
-61.9 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
263.5 (5.3%)
COPPER
6.03
Daily:
0.14 (2.32%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.0%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$64.37
Closest Support:
$63.54
1.29% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$65.87
2.33% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.55
0.382
$59.14
0.5
$60.43
0.618
$61.71
0.786
$63.54
Support
1.0
$65.87
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$68.83
1.618
$72.6
2.0
$76.76
2.618
$83.49
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$65.42
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-29 23:53:43
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.06%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | $65.46 | $63.15 | $67.77 |
| 2026-01-31 | $65.4 | $63.09 | $67.71 |
| 2026-02-01 | $65.27 | $62.96 | $67.58 |
| 2026-02-02 | $64.99 | $62.68 | $67.3 |
| 2026-02-03 | $64.89 | $62.58 | $67.2 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2026-01-30), reaching $65.46.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-30 and 2026-02-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price decline in the Crude Oil market, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $61.74/b and NYMEX WTI at $57.87/b, suggests potential volatility as traders assess the market's direction. The Brent-WTI spread narrowing to $3.76/b indicates a shift in supply dynamics, which could present both opportunities and risks in the short term.
Despite the backwardation in the forward curves signaling strong fundamentals, the decrease in managed money positioning (currently at 47,500 contracts) suggests that speculative interest may be waning, which could lead to further price corrections. Traders should closely monitor for Fibonacci levels that could indicate potential reversal points.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment remains positive despite the recent price drop, with global oil demand expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026. Producers should consider this growth alongside the need for effective hedging strategies against potential price volatility.
The rise in OECD commercial crude inventories by 8.1 mb indicates a need for careful production planning to avoid oversupply scenarios. Additionally, the decline in refining margins may affect profitability; hence, producers should evaluate their operational efficiency and inventory management practices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude oil prices fluctuating around $61.74/b for OPEC and $57.87/b for WTI, consumers should anticipate input cost fluctuations in the near term. The impact of weather conditions, such as the US winter storm affecting output, could further complicate supply reliability.
The strengthening of crude imports in regions like China and India suggests a robust demand landscape, which may lead to tighter supply and higher prices. Consumers should assess their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate potential cost increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently in a bullish sentiment phase, supported by a forecasted growth in global oil demand and stable economic indicators. However, the decline in managed money positioning indicates a potential shift in market dynamics that could lead to price corrections.
Key driving factors include the steady growth in supply from non-DoC countries and the increasing inventories in OECD regions. Analysts should keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and weather patterns that could influence market trends and sentiment shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.