A US military buildup in the Middle East is drawing speculation that there will be an attack on Iran from the US. Add in that there is no momentum on Ukraine-Russian peace agreements this raises tension that conflict around a significant portion of the Global Crude supply could face disruptions. Lastly, add in that the US weather storm Fern has shut in some 10% of the US supply. WTI finally broke above the 61.64 level that may push crude all the way up to 66.84 as the next technical level. The only concern against that bullish setup is that global demand has yet to show significant improvement (yet). US is building military presence in the Middle East and the crude market broke above the 61.64 resistance level that indicates a path to 66.84 as the next stop. It certainly seems as if a conflict is on the horizon and when traders are slowly building positions - it adds conviction from the markets of that direction. As traders are adding more positions to the mix it appears that traders are more and more confident that conflict is imminent (note we started this move up $5 ago). Crude finally snapped above $61.64, unlocking a technical runway toward $66.84 as geopolitics pile up fast. Rising U.S. military presence near Iran, stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and ~10% U.S. supply shut-ins from Winter Storm Fern have tightened near-term supply optics. WTI ~$63.6, Brent ~$69. But the speed bump? Global demand still hasn’t shown real lift. Supply fear is driving. Demand conviction is still TBD.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-01-30 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is navigating turbulent waters as U.S. military buildup near Iran raises conflict concerns, compounded by stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks. Recent supply disruptions from Winter Storm Fern, which has shut in about 10% of U.S. production, further tighten the market. WTI has broken above $61.64, with a potential target of $66.84. However, a lack of robust global demand keeps this bullish momentum in check. Traders remain cautious yet optimistic as geopolitical tensions and supply fears drive market sentiment.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$70.71
$2.31
WTI:
$65.42
$2.21
Spread:
$5.29
(Brent premium of $5.29)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
59,047
Weekly Change:
11,547
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$65.55
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $62.07
MA(20): $60.28
Current Price is 65.55, 9 day MA 62.07, 20 day MA 60.28
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.525
Signal: 0.9058
Days since crossover: 26
MACD crossed the line 26 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 69.22
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 69.22 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 219,872
Avg (20d): 321,782
Ratio: 0.68
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 88.42
%D: 90.58
Stochastic %K: 88.42, %D: 90.58. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 32.68
+DI: 29.75
-DI: 6.58
ADX: 32.68 (+DI: 29.75, -DI: 6.58). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -11.58
Williams %R: -11.58 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 65.25
Middle: 60.28
Lower: 55.3
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 65.25, Middle: 60.28, Lower: 55.3
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13696.0 | 13732.0 | 13477.0 | 12813.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5642.0 | 6447.0 | 6745.0 | 6445.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4589.0 | 3688.0 | 4515.0 | 3690.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16209.0 | 16604.0 | 15522.0 | 14999.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1053.0 | 2759.0 | 2230.0 | 2754.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 423754.0 | 426049.0 | 411663.0 | 429908.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1715851.0 | 1722117.0 | 1621794.0 | 1601425.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 257213.0 | 256990.0 | 245898.0 | 245862.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132921.0 | 132592.0 | 128945.0 | 124112.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $70.71, change $+2.31. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.42, change $+2.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.29 (Brent premium of $5.29). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$70.71
2.31
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$65.42
2.21
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.29
Brent premium of $5.29
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline, dropping by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook, despite ongoing selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is projected to grow by around 1.2 mb/d.
For 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by around 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as key growth drivers.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years, averaging about 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027. Crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, to average about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December after a sharp upward trend in previous months. In the Northern Hemisphere, this decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East negatively impacted refining profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year.
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route declined by 12%, m-o-m, while rates on the Middle East-to-West route fell by 11%, m-o-m.
- Suezmax rates also saw a decline, with rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route down by 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline, with cross-Med rates down by 4%, m-o-m.
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased as refineries ramped up following maintenance, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined and exports rose to the upper end of the 5-year range.
- Japan's crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional product demand.
- China's crude imports jumped to an average of 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb, which is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier.
Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, which is 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d, around 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates that for 2026, the world demand of 106.5 mb/d exceeds the non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d. This gap highlights the need for strategic production decisions to ensure market balance in the coming years.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-27
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: 71,290
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-27
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,035,649 contracts (+71,290)
Managed Money Net Position: 59,047 contracts (2.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +11,547 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 192,338 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -307,386 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
57
Last Updated:
2026-01-30 23:53:50
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil Prices Can Stay High Despite Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Oil Futures Make Headway on Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Geopolitical Risk Premium Gives Oil A Further Lift — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Mixed; May be Supported by Lingering Middle East Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise On Geopolitical Apprehension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (5 articles)
- New England Relied on Petroleum-Fired Generation During Storm — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Gains on Iran Risks, U.S. Winter Storm Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.15
Daily:
0.87 (0.9%)
Weekly:
0.11 (0.11%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
0.01 (0.33%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.66%)
SP500
6939.03
Daily:
-29.98 (-0.43%)
Weekly:
-11.2 (-0.16%)
VIX
17.44
Daily:
0.56 (3.32%)
Weekly:
1.29 (7.99%)
GOLD
5067.5
Daily:
-250.9 (-4.72%)
Weekly:
-12.2 (-0.24%)
COPPER
6.01
Daily:
-0.16 (-2.6%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.52%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$65.55
Closest Support:
$64.02
2.33% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$66.48
1.42% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
0.786
$64.02
Support
1.0
$66.48
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$65.42
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-30 23:53:53
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.07%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | $65.46 | $63.15 | $67.77 |
| 2026-01-31 | $65.4 | $63.09 | $67.71 |
| 2026-02-01 | $65.27 | $62.96 | $67.58 |
| 2026-02-02 | $64.99 | $62.68 | $67.3 |
| 2026-02-03 | $64.9 | $62.59 | $67.2 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2026-01-30), reaching $65.46.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-30 and 2026-02-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics suggest bullish sentiment with Brent crude settling at $70.71 and WTI at $65.42. The Brent-WTI spread is at $5.29, indicating a premium for Brent due to global supply-demand dynamics. This may present short-term opportunities, especially in light of the geopolitical tensions and weather disruptions affecting output.
With the market in backwardation, traders should watch for potential support levels around $61.74 (ORB) and resistance near $70.71 (Brent). The ML predictions indicate continued volatility, suggesting traders remain alert to rapid price movements influenced by external events.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of current supply-demand balance, with demand for DoC crude projected at 43.0 mb/d in 2026. The drop in OPEC production by 238 tb/d in December indicates a need for cautious production planning.
Given the declining refining margins and rising inventory levels, it may be prudent to enhance hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility. The current market sentiment remains supportive, but producers must remain vigilant regarding inventory levels and geopolitical risks that could impact operations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices hover around $65.42 and $70.71, respectively. The geopolitical tensions and weather disruptions, particularly in the U.S., could lead to supply reliability risks.
With OECD crude stocks rising, consumers might find some relief in procurement costs. However, monitoring hedging options could be beneficial to protect against sudden price spikes, especially as refining margins have declined and may affect product availability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment, bolstered by steady global economic growth forecasts and a stable demand outlook. Key driving factors include the supply-demand balance showing a slight increase in demand for DoC crude and a potential rise in non-DoC production from major producers like Brazil and the U.S.
Despite the decline in refining margins and rising inventories, the supportive price action suggests a careful watch on market trends. Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical risks and weather impacts, as these could shift the outlook significantly. The overall market remains in a state of flux, requiring ongoing analysis of ML forecasts and positioning data to gauge future price movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.