Crude is in a tricky place - the fundamentals are AWFULLY bearish. Motor gasoline stocks are setting new 5 year highs and meanwhile every global statistic around demand looks to be bearish as demand simply is not supporting the supply. IEA projects a 3.7 MMBPD oversupply into 2026, and while I see that number as being overly bearish, we are oversupplied - China is importing over a million barrels a day to fill their SPR - so we don’t NEED the supply that is being produced (at least not yet). Will economic growth help that? Currently the outlook on that is a NOPE - not gonna help as a global recession is being discussed and on the table. Crude has been rangebound between 57.35 and 61.64 since October and only broke above that range on US deploying military to the Middle East combined with tense rhetoric about potential Iranian strikes. After last week seeing WTI get over $66, crude simply reversed after calmer discussions of the US and Iranian discussions… but I would watch this as we could see some more activity here.
* Monday - we saw a selloff from 64.72 down to 61.64 which is the logical place to be - we did close above that key level.
* Tuesday - continued testing of the 61.64 level and waiting on news
* Rest of the week - likely shift back into the 57.35 to 61.64 range
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-02 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating choppy waters, with bearish fundamentals dominating the landscape. Motor gasoline stocks have reached five-year highs, and the IEA forecasts a 3.7 MMBPD oversupply through 2026. Despite a brief spike past $66 due to geopolitical tensions, prices retreated as discussions cooled. Currently, crude is fluctuating within a range of $57.35 to $61.64, reflecting oversupply concerns. Traders should keep an eye on geopolitical developments and economic indicators for potential market direction shifts.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$70.69
$0.02
WTI:
$65.21
$0.21
Spread:
$5.48
(Brent premium of $5.48)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
59,047
Weekly Change:
11,547
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$61.96
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $62.21
MA(20): $60.49
Current Price is 61.96, 9 day MA 62.21, 20 day MA 60.49
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.383
Signal: 0.9969
Days since crossover: 27
MACD crossed the line 27 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.56
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 20,061
Avg (20d): 324,783
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 41.9
%D: 71.38
Stochastic %K: 41.9, %D: 71.38. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 32.73
+DI: 25.83
-DI: 12.9
ADX: 32.73 (+DI: 25.83, -DI: 12.9). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -58.1
Williams %R: -58.1 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 65.26
Middle: 60.49
Lower: 55.73
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.26, Middle: 60.49, Lower: 55.73
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13696.0 | 13732.0 | 13477.0 | 12813.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5642.0 | 6447.0 | 6745.0 | 6445.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4589.0 | 3688.0 | 4515.0 | 3690.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16209.0 | 16604.0 | 15522.0 | 14999.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1053.0 | 2759.0 | 2230.0 | 2754.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 423754.0 | 426049.0 | 411663.0 | 429908.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1715851.0 | 1722117.0 | 1621794.0 | 1601425.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 257213.0 | 256990.0 | 245898.0 | 245862.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 132921.0 | 132592.0 | 128945.0 | 124112.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAR 26) settled at $70.69, change $-0.02. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.21, change $-0.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.48 (Brent premium of $5.48). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$70.69
0.02
(MAR 26)
WTI Crude
$65.21
0.21
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.48
Brent premium of $5.48
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook, despite ongoing selling pressure in futures markets. Notably, the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, m-o-m, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecasted at 3.1% for 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both years
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both years
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD: 0.1 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
- Non-OECD: 1.2 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
- DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. This decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures.
- In the Northern Hemisphere, European product flows to West Africa decreased, impacting margins.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East, affecting profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year.
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Suezmax rates fell by 12%, m-o-m, while Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, spot rates rose by 14%, m-o-m, on the Middle East-to-East route, driven by increased long-haul demand.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports were stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined.
- Japan's crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand.
- China's crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports remained above the five-year range, averaging 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb.
- OECD crude stocks increased by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD total product stocks stood at 1,494 mb, which was 38.6 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for 2026 of 43.0 mb/d against a world demand of 106.5 mb/d and non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions to address this gap.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-27
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: 71,290
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-27
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,035,649 contracts (+71,290)
Managed Money Net Position: 59,047 contracts (2.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +11,547 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 192,338 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -307,386 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
37
Last Updated:
2026-02-02 23:53:46
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.44
Daily:
0.45 (0.47%)
Weekly:
1.22 (1.27%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.03 (0.8%)
Weekly:
0.05 (1.23%)
SP500
6976.44
Daily:
37.41 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-2.16 (-0.03%)
VIX
16.34
Daily:
-1.1 (-6.31%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.06%)
GOLD
4841.9
Daily:
128.0 (2.72%)
Weekly:
-238.0 (-4.69%)
COPPER
5.9
Daily:
0.0 (0.03%)
Weekly:
0.07 (1.2%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$61.96
Closest Support:
$60.73
1.99% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$62.09
0.21% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
Support
0.618
$62.09
Resistance
0.786
$64.02
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$62.14
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-02 23:53:50
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.21%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | $62.01 | $59.43 | $64.59 |
| 2026-02-04 | $61.62 | $59.04 | $64.2 |
| 2026-02-05 | $61.54 | $58.96 | $64.12 |
| 2026-02-06 | $61.88 | $59.3 | $64.46 |
| 2026-02-07 | $61.99 | $59.4 | $64.57 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2026-02-03), reaching $62.01.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-03 and 2026-02-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with an overall sentiment score of -0.700, suggests caution for traders. The $61.74 average for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates a downward trend, compounded by the $3.76 Brent-WTI spread, which reflects ongoing supply-demand dynamics.
Traders should monitor support levels around $57.87 (NYMEX WTI) and $61.63 (ICE Brent) for potential rebounds. The risk of increased volatility remains, especially with managed money positioning growing, indicating potential for price swings as speculative positions evolve.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decline in crude prices and the bearish market sentiment may impact production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, particularly given the $61.74 average price and the $57.87 WTI benchmark.
Additionally, the increase in crude inventories by 4.0 mb signals a need to assess production levels carefully, as this could lead to further price pressures. The stability in non-DoC liquids production suggests that competition will remain high, necessitating strategic planning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With the current bearish sentiment and declining refining margins, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The $61.63 average for Brent and $57.87 for WTI may lead to supply reliability risks, especially with geopolitical tensions easing, which could impact future pricing.
It is advisable to monitor procurement strategies closely, as the balance of supply and demand remains delicate, with crude imports fluctuating and product inventories showing mixed signals. This could present opportunities for strategic purchasing.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bearish phase, driven by a combination of declining prices and increasing inventories. The balance of supply and demand remains fragile, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026.
Analysts should focus on the implications of managed money positioning, which is currently bullish, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics. The news sentiment, particularly regarding geopolitical factors and economic forecasts, will also play a crucial role in shaping future price movements.
Disclaimer: This insight is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.