Crude is in a tricky place - the fundamentals are AWFULLY bearish. Motor gasoline stocks are setting new 5 year highs and meanwhile every global statistic around demand looks to be bearish as demand simply is not supporting the supply. IEA projects a 3.7 MMBPD oversupply into 2026, and while I see that number as being overly bearish, we are oversupplied - China is importing over a million barrels a day to fill their SPR - so we don’t NEED the supply that is being produced (at least not yet). Will economic growth help that? Currently the outlook on that is a NOPE - not gonna help as a global recession is being discussed and on the table. Crude has been rangebound between 57.35 and 61.64 since October and only broke above that range on US deploying military to the Middle East combined with tense rhetoric about potential Iranian strikes. After last week seeing WTI get over $66, crude simply reversed after calmer discussions of the US and Iranian discussions… but I would watch this as we could see some more activity here.
* Monday - we saw a selloff from 64.72 down to 61.64 which is the logical place to be - we did close above that key level.
* Tuesday - brought another concern on US-Iran tension and dollar weakness.
* Wednesday brought us back to 63.80 as the bull/bear line
* Rest of the week will likely indicate whether we look at 61.64 or have eyes for 66.84 - I am thinking the latter
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-04 23:55
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is navigating a bearish landscape, with motor gasoline stocks at 5-year highs and demand projections looking grim. The IEA forecasts a 3.7 MMBPD oversupply by 2026, though this may be overstated. Recent geopolitical tensions over U.S.-Iran discussions caused brief price spikes but ultimately led to a selloff, with WTI fluctuating between $57.35 and $61.64. Watch for potential resistance at $66.84, while bearish fundamentals loom large over future price movements.
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**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- U.S. oil may retrace to $62.88.
- Current range is $57.35 to $61.64, with a potential resistance at
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$67.33
$1.03
WTI:
$63.21
$1.07
Spread:
$4.12
(Brent premium of $4.12)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
59,047
Weekly Change:
11,547
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$63.8
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.01
MA(20): $61.08
Current Price is 63.8, 9 day MA 63.01, 20 day MA 61.08
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.4119
Signal: 1.1443
Days since crossover: 29
MACD crossed the line 29 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 59.69
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 59.69 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 23,631
Avg (20d): 335,045
Ratio: 0.07
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 65.55
%D: 55.91
Stochastic %K: 65.55, %D: 55.91. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 32.22
+DI: 23.43
-DI: 12.27
ADX: 32.22 (+DI: 23.43, -DI: 12.27). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -34.45
Williams %R: -34.45 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 65.76
Middle: 61.08
Lower: 56.4
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.76, Middle: 61.08, Lower: 56.4
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13215.0 | 13696.0 | 13240.0 | 13026.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6201.0 | 5642.0 | 6448.0 | 6960.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4047.0 | 4589.0 | 3686.0 | 3609.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16029.0 | 16209.0 | 15189.0 | 15199.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2154.0 | 1053.0 | 2762.0 | 3351.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 420299.0 | 423754.0 | 415126.0 | 435444.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1690785.0 | 1715851.0 | 1608159.0 | 1600444.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 257898.0 | 257213.0 | 248855.0 | 247227.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 127368.0 | 132921.0 | 123951.0 | 122192.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $67.33, change $+1.03. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $63.21, change $+1.07. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.12 (Brent premium of $4.12). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$67.33
1.03
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$63.21
1.07
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.12
Brent premium of $4.12
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook, despite ongoing selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both years
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both years
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD: 0.1 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
- Non-OECD: 1.2 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production in 2026 is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also expected to grow by 0.6 mb/d.
- NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. This decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
- In the Northern Hemisphere, European product flows to West Africa decreased, contributing to margin drops.
- Southeast Asia faced rising domestic product supplies and softening export incentives.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December, following strong gains earlier in the year.
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Suezmax rates fell by 12%, m-o-m, while Aframax rates saw a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased by 14% on the Middle East-to-East route, driven by rising refinery demand.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product exports reached the upper end of the 5-year range.
- China's crude imports surged to 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, supported by the release of import quotas.
- India's crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with product exports increasing, particularly for gasoline and naphtha.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb.
- Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover increased by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 against a non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d. This gap highlights the strategic outlook for production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-27
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: 71,290
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-27
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,035,649 contracts (+71,290)
Managed Money Net Position: 59,047 contracts (2.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +11,547 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 192,338 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -307,386 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
62
Last Updated:
2026-02-04 23:53:48
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
- Iranian Crude Exports Slump in January, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Oil prices fall as US, Iran agree to talks, easing conflict concerns Reuters
- Crude Picks Up As U.S.-India Trade Deal to Affect Russian Oil — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Russia Likely to Struggle to Place Oil If India Halts Purchases — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Drop on Easing Geopolitical Tensions Trading Economics
- PRESIDENT TRUMP POSTS USA WILL CUT TARIFFS ON INDIA GOODS TO 18% VS 50%; INDIA TO STOP BUYING RUSSIA OIL Mace News
- Crude Prices Tumble on Dollar Strength and Easing Geopolitical Risks Barchart
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.76
Daily:
0.32 (0.33%)
Weekly:
1.48 (1.54%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.0 (0.02%)
Weekly:
0.05 (1.14%)
SP500
6882.72
Daily:
-35.09 (-0.51%)
Weekly:
-86.29 (-1.24%)
VIX
18.64
Daily:
0.64 (3.56%)
Weekly:
1.76 (10.43%)
GOLD
4902.4
Daily:
-1.3 (-0.03%)
Weekly:
-416.0 (-7.82%)
COPPER
5.81
Daily:
-0.26 (-4.23%)
Weekly:
-0.37 (-5.98%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$63.8
Closest Support:
$62.09
2.68% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
0.34% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$65.14
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-04 23:53:50
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.07%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | $65.09 | $62.41 | $67.77 |
| 2026-02-06 | $65.49 | $62.81 | $68.17 |
| 2026-02-07 | $65.48 | $62.8 | $68.16 |
| 2026-02-08 | $65.26 | $62.58 | $67.94 |
| 2026-02-09 | $65.21 | $62.53 | $67.89 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2026-02-05), reaching $65.09.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-05 and 2026-02-09.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent drop in crude oil prices, with the $61.74/b OPEC Reference Basket and $61.63/b for ICE Brent, indicates potential bearish sentiment in the short term. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $4.12, reflecting diverging supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.
Traders should monitor volatility as managed money positioning shows a bullish trend, with a net position increase of 11,547 contracts. This could signal potential price reversals. Fibonacci levels can provide support and resistance levels for short-term trading strategies.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decrease in crude oil production by OPEC countries in December, down by 238 tb/d, combined with rising global oil demand forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, suggests a need for strategic planning in production levels.
Producers should also consider hedging strategies as the bearish market sentiment could lead to price fluctuations. Additionally, the rise in OECD commercial crude stocks to 1,346 mb may impact pricing strategies and operational decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude oil prices currently at $61.74/b, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical factors and inventory levels are crucial to consider.
The increase in U.S. crude exports by nearly 10% in December suggests a tightening supply which may affect procurement strategies. Consumers should assess their hedging options to mitigate the impact of price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bearish sentiment, with a significant balance between supply and demand. The forecasted growth in global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, contrasts with rising inventories and geopolitical tensions affecting market stability.
Analysts should closely monitor the risk factors associated with geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.-Iran relations, which could influence market dynamics. The current managed money positioning indicates a strengthening sentiment that may suggest a shift in market outlook if prices stabilize.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.