Crude is in a tricky place - the fundamentals are AWFULLY bearish. Motor gasoline stocks are setting new 5 year highs and meanwhile every global statistic around demand looks to be bearish as demand simply is not supporting the supply. IEA projects a 3.7 MMBPD oversupply into 2026, and while I see that number as being overly bearish, we are oversupplied - China is importing over a million barrels a day to fill their SPR - so we don’t NEED the supply that is being produced (at least not yet). Will economic growth help that? Currently the outlook on that is a NOPE - not gonna help as a global recession is being discussed and on the table. Crude has been rangebound between 57.35 and 61.64 since October and only broke above that range on US deploying military to the Middle East combined with tense rhetoric about potential Iranian strikes. After last week seeing WTI get over $66, crude simply reversed after calmer discussions of the US and Iranian discussions… but I would watch this as we could see some more activity here.
* Monday - we saw a selloff from 64.72 down to 61.64 which is the logical place to be - we did close above that key level.
* Tuesday - brought another concern on US-Iran tension and dollar weakness.
* Wednesday brought us back to 63.80 as the bull/bear line
* Thursday - battle for 63.80 with bulls and bears playing tug of war - this ended up below 63.80
* Friday - without news I think this ends up hovering around 63.80 as the crude market is set to wait on news.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-05 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently in a precarious position as bearish fundamentals loom large. With motor gasoline stocks at five-year highs and global demand faltering—exacerbated by IEA's projection of a 3.7 MMBPD oversupply through 2026—prices have been rangebound between $57.35 and $61.64. Recent geopolitical tensions briefly spiked WTI above $66, but easing US-Iran discussions prompted a sell-off. Watch for support around $62.40 as market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing oversupply concerns and economic recession talks.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$69.46
$2.13
WTI:
$65.14
$1.93
Spread:
$4.32
(Brent premium of $4.32)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
59,047
Weekly Change:
11,547
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$63.68
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.45
MA(20): $61.53
Current Price is 63.68, 9 day MA 63.45, 20 day MA 61.53
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.4876
Signal: 1.2301
Days since crossover: 30
MACD crossed the line 30 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.55
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.55 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 25,771
Avg (20d): 338,325
Ratio: 0.08
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 64.01
%D: 68.25
Stochastic %K: 64.01, %D: 68.25. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 32.4
+DI: 23.07
-DI: 12.47
ADX: 32.4 (+DI: 23.07, -DI: 12.47). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -35.99
Williams %R: -35.99 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 65.9
Middle: 61.53
Lower: 57.16
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.9, Middle: 61.53, Lower: 57.16
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13215.0 | 13696.0 | 13240.0 | 13026.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6201.0 | 5642.0 | 6448.0 | 6960.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4047.0 | 4589.0 | 3686.0 | 3609.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16029.0 | 16209.0 | 15189.0 | 15199.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2154.0 | 1053.0 | 2762.0 | 3351.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 420299.0 | 423754.0 | 415126.0 | 435444.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1690785.0 | 1715851.0 | 1608159.0 | 1600444.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 257898.0 | 257213.0 | 248855.0 | 247227.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 127368.0 | 132921.0 | 123951.0 | 122192.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $69.46, change $+2.13. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.14, change $+1.93. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.32 (Brent premium of $4.32). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$69.46
2.13
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$65.14
1.93
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.32
Brent premium of $4.32
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, averaging $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, m-o-m, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by:
- Normalization in global trade
- Fiscal support measures
- Adjustments to monetary policies in major economies
Key growth forecasts include:
- US: 2.1% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% in 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% in 2026, improving to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven by:
- Brazil
- Canada
- US
- Argentina
DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027, averaging about 8.8 mb/d and 8.9 mb/d respectively. Additionally, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, to average about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. Contributing factors include:
- Product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels
- Seasonal demand-side pressures
- Decline in European product flows to West Africa
In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East further pressured refining profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. Key movements include:
- VLCC rates dropped but remained strong due to long-haul demand
- Middle East-to-East route rates fell by 12%, m-o-m
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe fell by 12%, m-o-m
- Aframax rates saw a moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased, driven by rising refinery demand, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m. Key regional trends include:
- OECD Europe: Crude imports increased, while product imports declined
- Japan: Crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand
- China: Crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, following quota releases
- India: Crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with increased product exports
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb. Key insights include:
- Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago
- Total product stocks stood at 1,494 mb, 38.6 mb higher than a year ago
Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days, indicating a slight increase in inventory coverage.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The forecast for 2027 is 43.6 mb/d, reflecting a similar increase. The supply-demand gap analysis indicates the following:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.4 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant gap between world demand and non-DoC supply, necessitating strategic production decisions from DoC countries to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-01-27
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: 71,290
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-01-27
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,035,649 contracts (+71,290)
Managed Money Net Position: 59,047 contracts (2.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +11,547 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 192,338 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -307,386 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
72
Last Updated:
2026-02-05 23:52:57
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Slides as US-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears Trading Economics
Demand (1 articles)
- Iranian Crude Exports Slump in January, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Picks Up As U.S.-India Trade Deal to Affect Russian Oil — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Russia Likely to Struggle to Place Oil If India Halts Purchases — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Drop on Easing Geopolitical Tensions Trading Economics
- PRESIDENT TRUMP POSTS USA WILL CUT TARIFFS ON INDIA GOODS TO 18% VS 50%; INDIA TO STOP BUYING RUSSIA OIL Mace News
- Crude Prices Tumble on Dollar Strength and Easing Geopolitical Risks Barchart
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.8
Daily:
0.18 (0.18%)
Weekly:
0.81 (0.83%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.52%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.73%)
SP500
6798.4
Daily:
-84.32 (-1.23%)
Weekly:
-140.63 (-2.03%)
VIX
21.77
Daily:
3.13 (16.79%)
Weekly:
4.33 (24.83%)
GOLD
4840.2
Daily:
-80.2 (-1.63%)
Weekly:
126.3 (2.68%)
COPPER
5.74
Daily:
-0.09 (-1.49%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-2.68%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$63.68
Closest Support:
$62.09
2.5% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
0.53% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$63.29
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-05 23:53:00
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.65%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | $63.7 | $61.0 | $66.41 |
| 2026-02-07 | $63.67 | $60.96 | $66.37 |
| 2026-02-08 | $63.41 | $60.71 | $66.12 |
| 2026-02-09 | $63.55 | $60.85 | $66.26 |
| 2026-02-10 | $63.56 | $60.86 | $66.26 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.65% for the next trading day (2026-02-06), reaching $63.70.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-06 and 2026-02-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment reflected in the market indicates potential challenges for price stability. The $61.74/b average for OPEC Reference Basket and the $57.87/b for NYMEX WTI suggest support levels around these figures. Traders should monitor the $4.32 Brent-WTI spread, which reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics and can signal short-term opportunities or risks. Additionally, the volatility in futures markets, despite a positive short-term demand outlook, may present trading strategies focusing on short positions if bearish sentiment persists.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a forecasted decline in crude oil production from DoC countries, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate price risks. The increase in OECD commercial inventories, particularly 8.1 mb in crude stocks, indicates a potential oversupply situation that could affect pricing. The bearish sentiment in news articles may also influence operational decisions. Producers must adapt their production planning to align with the balance of supply and demand forecasts, especially as global demand growth remains steady.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices hovering around $57.87/b and $61.74/b, respectively. The supply reliability risks associated with geopolitical tensions and inventory levels could impact procurement strategies. The current bearish sentiment may indicate favorable conditions for procurement, but consumers should remain vigilant about changes in global demand forecasts and refining margins that could affect supply availability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bearish sentiment, driven by fluctuating prices and increasing inventories. Key driving factors include stable global oil demand growth of 1.4 mb/d and ongoing supply adjustments, particularly from non-DoC producers. The balance between supply and demand remains delicate, with geopolitical factors and refining margins influencing market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor positioning data, as the managed money net position suggests a strengthening trend, indicating potential shifts in market sentiment.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.