Crude oil is stuck in a fundamentally bearish box, with supply comfortably ahead of demand and the data doing the heavy lifting, not the headlines. Motor gasoline stocks are pushing new 5-year highs, global demand growth is rolling over, and the International Energy Agency is staring at a ~3.7 MMBPD oversupply into 2026, which may be aggressive but not wrong on direction. China importing over 1 MMBPD to fill SPR barrels tells us the oil isn’t being consumed, it’s being warehoused. Price only escaped the $57.35–$61.64 range when geopolitics lit the fuse, not because fundamentals suddenly improved. Last week’s sprint above $66 was fear-driven and unraveled quickly once U.S.–Iran rhetoric cooled. Today’s market is hovering near the $63.80 bull/bear line, waiting for either a real disruption or permission to sink back into reality.
Hit List – Stats, What to Watch & Today’s Take
* Gasoline inventories: +3–4% above 5-yr avg → quietly bearish
* IEA 2026 balance: ~3.7 MMBPD surplus
* China imports: ~1 MMBPD for SPR, not demand
* OPEC+: 1.2 MMBPD of cuts still waiting in the wings
* Key levels: $63.80 (pivot), $61.64 (gravity), $57.35 (trapdoor)
* Assessment today: Risk premium is supporting price, fundamentals are not. Without headlines, crude drifts or leaks lower.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-07 23:52
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a bearish situation as supply outpaces demand, with gasoline stocks at five-year highs and a projected oversupply of ~3.7 MMBPD by 2026. Recent geopolitical tensions provided a temporary lift, but prices retreated quickly as fundamentals remain weak. Currently hovering around $63.80, traders should watch for significant disruptions to maintain momentum. With OPEC+ cuts looming and heightened market volatility, the focus remains on navigating these choppy waters rather than relying on headlines.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$68.05
$0.5
WTI:
$63.55
$0.26
Spread:
$4.5
(Brent premium of $4.50)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
76,760
Weekly Change:
17,713
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$63.55
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.73
MA(20): $61.8
Current Price is 63.55, 9 day MA 63.73, 20 day MA 61.8
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.4117
Signal: 1.2614
Days since crossover: 31
MACD crossed the line 31 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 56.96
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 56.96 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 389,763
Avg (20d): 359,306
Ratio: 1.08
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 62.34
%D: 68.04
Stochastic %K: 62.34, %D: 68.04. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 32.37
+DI: 21.54
-DI: 12.08
ADX: 32.37 (+DI: 21.54, -DI: 12.08). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -37.66
Williams %R: -37.66 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 65.86
Middle: 61.8
Lower: 57.74
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.86, Middle: 61.8, Lower: 57.74
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13215.0 | 13696.0 | 13240.0 | 13026.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6201.0 | 5642.0 | 6448.0 | 6960.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4047.0 | 4589.0 | 3686.0 | 3609.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16029.0 | 16209.0 | 15189.0 | 15199.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2154.0 | 1053.0 | 2762.0 | 3351.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 420299.0 | 423754.0 | 415126.0 | 435444.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1690785.0 | 1715851.0 | 1608159.0 | 1600444.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 257898.0 | 257213.0 | 248855.0 | 247227.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 127368.0 | 132921.0 | 123951.0 | 122192.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $68.05, change $+0.5. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $63.55, change $+0.26. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.5 (Brent premium of $4.50). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$68.05
0.5
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$63.55
0.26
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.5
Brent premium of $4.50
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also fell by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an expected acceleration to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by: • Normalization in global trade • Fiscal support measures • Adjustments to monetary policies in major economies
Key growth forecasts include: • US: 2.1% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027 • Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027 • Japan: 0.9% for both years • China: 4.5% for both years • India: 6.6% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027 • Brazil: 2.0% in 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027 • Russia: 1.3% in 2026, improving to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with: • OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d • Non-OECD growth at approximately 1.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, averaging about 8.8 mb/d, with a similar increase in 2027.
Recent trends indicate that crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. Key factors include: • Product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels • Seasonal demand-side pressures • Decline in European product flows to West Africa
In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and firm product availability from the Middle East also weighed on refining profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. Key movements include: • VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows • Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, m-o-m • Suezmax rates fell by 12%, m-o-m, on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route • Aframax rates saw a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates experienced upward momentum as refineries ramped up following maintenance, with Middle East-to-East rates rising by 14%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m. Key regional trade patterns include: • OECD Europe: Crude imports increased, while product imports declined • Japan: Crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand • China: Crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, with strong product imports • India: Crude imports averaged 5.1 mb/d, with increased product exports
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to 2,840 mb. Key insights include: • Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb • OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago • Total product stocks stood at 1,494 mb, 38.6 mb higher than a year ago
Days of forward cover increased by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days, which is 1.5 days higher than November 2024.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, about 0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, with world demand projected at 106.5 mb/d in 2026 and non-DoC supply at 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a requirement for DoC crude of 43.0 mb/d. This gap highlights the strategic decisions needed for production adjustments moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-03
Managed Money
76,760
Change: +17,713
3.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
170,640
Change: -21,698
8.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,139
Change: -15,753
-15.5% of OI
Open Interest
2,091,314
Change: 55,665
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-03
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,091,314 contracts (+55,665)
Managed Money Net Position: 76,760 contracts (3.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +17,713 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 170,640 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,139 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
43
Last Updated:
2026-02-07 23:52:14
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Slides as US-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears Trading Economics
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.63
Daily:
-0.19 (-0.19%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.02%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.61%)
SP500
6932.3
Daily:
133.9 (1.97%)
Weekly:
-44.14 (-0.63%)
VIX
20.37
Daily:
-1.4 (-6.43%)
Weekly:
4.03 (24.66%)
GOLD
4951.2
Daily:
89.8 (1.85%)
Weekly:
328.7 (7.11%)
COPPER
5.86
Daily:
0.06 (1.11%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.07%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$63.55
Closest Support:
$62.09
2.3% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
0.74% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$63.55
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-07 23:52:16
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.03%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | $63.53 | $60.86 | $66.2 |
| 2026-02-08 | $63.27 | $60.6 | $65.94 |
| 2026-02-09 | $63.4 | $60.73 | $66.07 |
| 2026-02-10 | $63.43 | $60.76 | $66.1 |
| 2026-02-11 | $63.42 | $60.75 | $66.1 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2026-02-07), reaching $63.53.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-07 and 2026-02-11.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent data indicates a bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $61.74/b. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $4.50, reflecting ongoing differences in supply/demand dynamics. Traders should be aware of potential support levels around the recent lows, while resistance levels could be observed near the $64 mark for WTI. The ML price predictions suggest volatility may persist, especially with positioning data showing Managed Money traders increasing their net positions. This could lead to short-term opportunities or risks depending on geopolitical developments and inventory fluctuations.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market dynamics indicate a need for careful production planning as crude oil production from DoC countries has decreased, while non-DoC production is forecasted to rise. The balance of supply and demand shows a slight increase in demand for DoC crude, which may provide some stability in pricing. Producers should consider implementing hedging strategies to mitigate risks from fluctuating prices, especially given the current bearish sentiment. Additionally, the rise in OECD commercial crude stocks could impact pricing strategies moving forward.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as the WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The supply reliability risks are heightened by geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels. With the recent increase in crude imports from regions such as China and Japan, procurement strategies should focus on diversification to ensure supply stability. Furthermore, the bearish sentiment in the market may present opportunities for strategic purchasing at lower price points.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and underlying fundamental factors. The steady global demand growth forecast of 1.4 mb/d juxtaposed with increasing production from non-DoC countries suggests a complex market landscape. Analysts should focus on the implications of the geopolitical risks and the CFTC positioning data, which indicates a bullish trend among Managed Money traders. The potential for ML forecasts to shift based on these dynamics should be closely monitored for future outlook adjustments.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.