Crude oil is stuck in a fundamentally bearish box, with supply comfortably ahead of demand and the data doing the heavy lifting, not the headlines. Motor gasoline stocks are pushing new 5-year highs, global demand growth is rolling over, and the International Energy Agency is staring at a ~3.7 MMBPD oversupply into 2026, which may be aggressive but not wrong on direction. China importing over 1 MMBPD to fill SPR barrels tells us the oil isn’t being consumed, it’s being warehoused. Price only escaped the $57.35–$61.64 range when geopolitics lit the fuse, not because fundamentals suddenly improved. Last week’s sprint above $66 was fear-driven and unraveled quickly once U.S.–Iran rhetoric cooled. Today’s market is hovering near the $63.80 bull/bear line, waiting for either a real disruption or permission to sink back into reality. Gasoline inventories are MEGA BEARISH and Distillates are meh. OPEC has 1.2 MMBPD offline still and IEA is projecting a 3.7 MMBPD surplus for 2026. Risk premium is landing squarely on headlines.
Daily Hit List
* Monday trading was “more of the same” with a 63.80 as the bull/bear line. Chatter is increasing about Iran with the US telling ships to avoid Iranian waters - waterborne attacks could lead to some big spikes.
* Tuesday brought more of the same with no big news moving WTI up or down - we end up almost where we began the week.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-10 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil finds itself in a fundamentally bearish box, with supply outpacing demand and gasoline inventories hitting five-year highs. Current tensions, particularly with Iran, provide temporary support, propelling prices above $66 before retreating back to the pivotal $63.80 mark. While the IEA forecasts a 3.7 MMBPD surplus by 2026, geopolitical fears are keeping risk premiums alive. Traders should prepare for potential volatility driven by headlines rather than solid fundamentals as we navigate this precarious market landscape.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$69.04
$0.99
WTI:
$64.36
$0.81
Spread:
$4.68
(Brent premium of $4.68)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
76,760
Weekly Change:
17,713
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$64.43
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $64.08
MA(20): $62.31
Current Price is 64.43, 9 day MA 64.08, 20 day MA 62.31
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.4251
Signal: 1.3204
Days since crossover: 33
MACD crossed the line 33 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 59.29
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 59.29 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 8,031
Avg (20d): 344,065
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 72.74
%D: 68.96
Stochastic %K: 72.74, %D: 68.96. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 32.08
+DI: 20.61
-DI: 11.02
ADX: 32.08 (+DI: 20.61, -DI: 11.02). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -27.26
Williams %R: -27.26 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.26
Middle: 62.31
Lower: 58.36
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.26, Middle: 62.31, Lower: 58.36
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13215.0 | 13696.0 | 13240.0 | 13026.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6201.0 | 5642.0 | 6448.0 | 6960.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4047.0 | 4589.0 | 3686.0 | 3609.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16029.0 | 16209.0 | 15189.0 | 15199.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2154.0 | 1053.0 | 2762.0 | 3351.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 420299.0 | 423754.0 | 415126.0 | 435444.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1690785.0 | 1715851.0 | 1608159.0 | 1600444.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 257898.0 | 257213.0 | 248855.0 | 247227.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 127368.0 | 132921.0 | 123951.0 | 122192.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $69.04, change $+0.99. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.36, change $+0.81. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.68 (Brent premium of $4.68). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$69.04
0.99
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$64.36
0.81
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.68
Brent premium of $4.68
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value decreased by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), averaging $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook, despite ongoing selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is projected at 3.1% for 2026, with an increase to 3.2% expected in 2027. This growth is supported by: • Normalization in global trade • Fiscal support measures • Adjustments to monetary policies in major economies
Specific growth forecasts include: • US: 2.1% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027 • Eurozone: 1.2% for both years • Japan: 0.9% for both years • China: 4.5% for both years • India: 6.6% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027 • Brazil: 2.0% in 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027 • Russia: 1.3% in 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at +1.4 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), with the OECD expected to grow by +0.15 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately +1.2 mb/d. For 2027, demand is anticipated to increase by +1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD maintaining a growth of +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by +0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC-participating countries are expected to increase by +0.1 mb/d in both years.
In December, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d m-o-m, averaging 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins experienced a decline across all regions in December, attributed to: • Product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels • Seasonal demand pressures • Reduced European product flows to West Africa • Increased domestic product supplies in Southeast Asia
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates fell in December after strong gains earlier in the year. Key movements included: • VLCC rates down 12% m-o-m on the Middle East-to-East route • Suezmax rates also down 12% m-o-m on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route • Aframax rates saw a more moderate decline of 4% m-o-m
In contrast, the clean tanker market saw upward momentum, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by +14% m-o-m and Mediterranean rates increasing by +6% m-o-m due to heightened long-haul demand.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while exports rose by nearly +10% m-o-m. Key regional developments included: • OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports and a decline in product imports • Japan's crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand • China's crude imports surged to 12.4 mb/d, a +9% m-o-m increase • India's crude imports stayed above the five-year average at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicates that OECD commercial inventories increased by +4.0 mb m-o-m, totaling 2,840 mb. This level is +77.6 mb higher than a year earlier but -101.5 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
Key stock changes include: • Crude stocks rose by +8.1 mb to 1,346 mb • Product stocks fell by -4.1 mb to 1,494 mb • Days of forward cover increased by +0.2 days m-o-m to 62.2 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is +0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d, an increase of +0.6 mb/d from 2026.
The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-03
Managed Money
76,760
Change: +17,713
3.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
170,640
Change: -21,698
8.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,139
Change: -15,753
-15.5% of OI
Open Interest
2,091,314
Change: 55,665
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-03
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,091,314 contracts (+55,665)
Managed Money Net Position: 76,760 contracts (3.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +17,713 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 170,640 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,139 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
30
Last Updated:
2026-02-10 23:53:37
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.4
Top News Topics
Demand (3 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.66
Daily:
-0.16 (-0.16%)
Weekly:
-0.96 (-0.98%)
US_10Y
4.15
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.21%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.99%)
SP500
6941.81
Daily:
-23.01 (-0.33%)
Weekly:
59.09 (0.86%)
VIX
17.79
Daily:
0.43 (2.48%)
Weekly:
-0.85 (-4.56%)
GOLD
5076.0
Daily:
25.1 (0.5%)
Weekly:
155.6 (3.16%)
COPPER
5.92
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.38%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.66%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$64.43
Closest Support:
$64.02
0.64% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$66.48
3.18% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
0.786
$64.02
Support
1.0
$66.48
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$63.96
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-10 23:53:39
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.22%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | $64.1 | $61.43 | $66.77 |
| 2026-02-12 | $64.15 | $61.48 | $66.82 |
| 2026-02-13 | $64.05 | $61.38 | $66.73 |
| 2026-02-14 | $64.06 | $61.39 | $66.74 |
| 2026-02-15 | $64.06 | $61.39 | $66.74 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.22% for the next trading day (2026-02-11), reaching $64.10.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-11 and 2026-02-15.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market sentiment is bullish with a sentiment score of +0.600, indicating potential upward price momentum. Recent price movements show $61.74/b for the OPEC Reference Basket, with $61.63/b for ICE Brent and $57.87/b for NYMEX WTI. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.76/b, suggesting a convergence in supply-demand dynamics. Traders should watch for potential resistance levels around $64.36 for WTI and $69.04 for Brent, as these could present short-term opportunities or risks based on volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026 and a slight increase in non-DoC liquids production, producers should consider hedging strategies to manage price volatility. The recent inventory levels indicate a rise in OECD crude stocks, which could impact market dynamics. OPEC production cuts may provide some support, but the market sentiment is mixed, reflecting both demand concerns and geopolitical tensions. Producers need to align production planning with these forecasts to optimize profitability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices are currently in a volatile state. With $57.87/b for WTI and $61.63/b for Brent, procurement strategies may need adjustment based on geopolitical risks and supply reliability. The increase in crude imports in regions like Japan and India suggests a tightening supply, which could further influence prices. Monitoring product inventory levels will be crucial for procurement decisions moving forward.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment driven by stable economic growth forecasts and resilient demand projections. Key factors include the balance of supply and demand, with non-DoC production growth and OPEC's supply management playing pivotal roles. Despite recent price declines, the technical indicators suggest potential opportunities for upward movement. Analysts should focus on geopolitical developments and their impacts on market dynamics, as these will be critical for future outlook shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.