Crude oil is stuck in a fundamentally bearish box, with supply comfortably ahead of demand and the data doing the heavy lifting, not the headlines. Motor gasoline stocks are pushing new 5-year highs, global demand growth is rolling over, and the International Energy Agency is staring at a ~3.7 MMBPD oversupply into 2026, which may be aggressive but not wrong on direction. China importing over 1 MMBPD to fill SPR barrels tells us the oil isn’t being consumed, it’s being warehoused. Price only escaped the $57.35–$61.64 range when geopolitics lit the fuse, not because fundamentals suddenly improved. Last week’s sprint above $66 was fear-driven and unraveled quickly once U.S.–Iran rhetoric cooled. Today’s market is hovering near the $63.80 bull/bear line, waiting for either a real disruption or permission to sink back into reality. Gasoline inventories are MEGA BEARISH and Distillates are meh. OPEC has 1.2 MMBPD offline still and IEA is projecting a 3.7 MMBPD surplus for 2026. Risk premium is landing squarely on headlines.
Daily Hit List
* Monday trading was “more of the same” with a 63.80 as the bull/bear line. Chatter is increasing about Iran with the US telling ships to avoid Iranian waters - waterborne attacks could lead to some big spikes.
* Tuesday brought more of the same with no big news moving WTI up or down - we end up almost where we began the week.
* Wednesday brought WTI a bit lower with no news on geopolitical tension, positive news on crude and distillate inventories, negative news on gasoline inventories that keep building (indicating economic weakness)
* Thursday brought on a bigger drop based upon lowered tension on Iran and renewed concerns of oversupply (IEA brought back a view of higher surplus)
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-12 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating a fundamentally bearish landscape, with supply outpacing demand, highlighted by record-high gasoline stocks. The International Energy Agency forecasts a 3.7 MMBPD surplus by 2026, casting doubt on demand recovery. Recent geopolitical tensions briefly spurred prices above $66, but eased fears led to a retreat, with current levels hovering around $63.80. Traders should watch for potential disruptions or clearer signals to break from this range as the market assesses oversupply risks.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$69.4
$0.6
WTI:
$64.63
$0.67
Spread:
$4.77
(Brent premium of $4.77)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
76,760
Weekly Change:
17,713
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$62.73
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.67
MA(20): $62.49
Current Price is 62.73, 9 day MA 63.67, 20 day MA 62.49
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.2347
Signal: 1.3105
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.36
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.36 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 9,250
Avg (20d): 333,878
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 40.85
%D: 60.25
Stochastic %K: 40.85, %D: 60.25. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 31.55
+DI: 21.19
-DI: 14.48
ADX: 31.55 (+DI: 21.19, -DI: 14.48). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -59.15
Williams %R: -59.15 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.49
Middle: 62.49
Lower: 58.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.49, Middle: 62.49, Lower: 58.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13713.0 | 13215.0 | 13478.0 | 13031.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6805.0 | 6201.0 | 6915.0 | 6337.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3739.0 | 4047.0 | 4331.0 | 3800.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16000.0 | 16029.0 | 15349.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3066.0 | 2154.0 | 2584.0 | 2536.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 428829.0 | 420299.0 | 423790.0 | 446234.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1689065.0 | 1690785.0 | 1605706.0 | 1609314.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 259058.0 | 257898.0 | 251088.0 | 245768.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124665.0 | 127368.0 | 118480.0 | 121170.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $69.4, change $+0.6. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $64.63, change $+0.67. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.77 (Brent premium of $4.77). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$69.4
0.6
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$64.63
0.67
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.77
Brent premium of $4.77
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook. Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly, while the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026; 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026; 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026; 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026; 1.5% for 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is projected to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD demand growth: 0.1 mb/d in 2027
- Non-OECD demand growth: around 1.2 mb/d in 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years.
Recent data indicates that crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, to average about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. The decline in the Northern Hemisphere was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures. In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and firm product availability from the Middle East contributed to this decrease.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates fell but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route: down 12%, m-o-m
- Middle East-to-West route: down 11%, m-o-m
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe: down 12%, m-o-m
- Aframax rates: moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased, driven by higher refinery activity following maintenance.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe: crude imports increased, product imports declined, while product exports rose to the upper end of the 5-year range.
- Japan: crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand.
- China: crude imports jumped to an average of 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, following quota releases.
- India: crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to 2,840 mb. This level is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier and 0.3 mb above the latest five-year average.
- Crude stocks: rose by 8.1 mb to 1,346 mb
- Product stocks: fell by 4.1 mb to 1,494 mb
- Days of forward cover: increased by 0.2 days to 62.2 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d, around 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates that for 2026, the world demand of 106.5 mb/d exceeds the non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d. This gap highlights the strategic importance of production decisions moving forward to ensure market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-03
Managed Money
76,760
Change: +17,713
3.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
170,640
Change: -21,698
8.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,139
Change: -15,753
-15.5% of OI
Open Interest
2,091,314
Change: 55,665
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-03
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,091,314 contracts (+55,665)
Managed Money Net Position: 76,760 contracts (3.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +17,713 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 170,640 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,139 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
56
Last Updated:
2026-02-12 23:52:56
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.99
Daily:
0.16 (0.17%)
Weekly:
-0.64 (-0.65%)
US_10Y
4.1
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.63%)
Weekly:
-0.1 (-2.43%)
SP500
6832.76
Daily:
-108.71 (-1.57%)
Weekly:
-99.54 (-1.44%)
VIX
20.82
Daily:
3.17 (17.96%)
Weekly:
0.45 (2.21%)
GOLD
4997.0
Daily:
-74.6 (-1.47%)
Weekly:
45.8 (0.93%)
COPPER
5.84
Daily:
-0.11 (-1.88%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.45%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$62.73
Closest Support:
$62.09
1.02% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
2.06% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$62.84
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-12 23:52:58
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.11%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | $62.77 | $59.99 | $65.55 |
| 2026-02-14 | $62.75 | $59.97 | $65.53 |
| 2026-02-15 | $62.66 | $59.89 | $65.44 |
| 2026-02-16 | $62.83 | $60.05 | $65.61 |
| 2026-02-17 | $62.89 | $60.12 | $65.67 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2026-02-13), reaching $62.77.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-13 and 2026-02-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a slight decline in the OPEC Reference Basket, with the $61.74/b average signaling potential short-term weakness. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.77 suggests that while Brent remains premium, the narrowing could indicate increased U.S. supply pressures. The futures market remains in backwardation, which typically reflects strong physical demand; however, the decline in refining margins and softening product flows could lead to increased volatility.
Traders should monitor key support levels around $57 for WTI and $61 for Brent, as breaks below these could trigger further selling. The bullish sentiment from managed money positioning indicates potential for upward price movement, but caution is warranted due to geopolitical tensions and demand concerns.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current supply-demand balance indicates a modest increase in demand for DoC crude, projected at 43.0 mb/d for 2026. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning in light of the decline in crude inventory levels, which rose by 8.1 mb in November. This could suggest a tightening market in the medium term.
Hedging strategies should be evaluated, especially given the backwardation in futures markets and the potential for price recovery. The impact of geopolitical factors on supply reliability remains a concern, particularly with tensions affecting Middle Eastern supply routes.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices adjust to market dynamics. Current average prices of $57.87/b for WTI and $61.63/b for Brent suggest a stable procurement environment, but demand concerns could lead to increased volatility.
The decline in refining margins may affect product availability and pricing. Companies should assess their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of factors: while the managed money positioning indicates a bullish sentiment, the overall demand outlook is tempered by concerns over economic growth and inventory levels. The supply-demand dynamics remain stable, with slight growth in global oil demand projected at 1.4 mb/d for 2026.
Analysts should keep a close watch on the Brent-WTI spread and refining margins as indicators of market health. The geopolitical landscape remains a critical factor, influencing both supply reliability and price stability. Overall, the market outlook is mixed, requiring nuanced strategies for