Crude right now is less “shortage saga” and more “spreadsheet reality check.” U.S. production is humming near 13.7 mbpd with the EIA nudging 2026 toward 13.60 mbpd, while OPEC+ still has roughly 1.2 mbpd of cuts left to unwind and is openly flirting with April increases. On the demand side, the IEA is staring at a potential ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, gasoline stocks sit +4.4% above the 5-year average, and Venezuelan exports just rebounded to ~800k bpd, quietly padding global supply. Inventories aren’t screaming tight either, with U.S. crude stocks only -3.4% below the 5-year average, meaning we’re snug, not starving. So unless geopolitics decides to light another match, the math says barrels are comfortable, the premium looks political, and the market is balancing on supply growth more than scarcity fear.
Daily Hit List
* Fridays close left in the middle ground between 63.80 and 61.64
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-13 23:55
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is transitioning from a "shortage saga" to a "spreadsheet reality check," with U.S. production hovering around 13.7 mbpd, while OPEC+ contemplates unwinding cuts. Demand forecasts suggest a potential surplus of ~3.7 mbpd into 2026, alongside gasoline stocks exceeding the five-year average. With inventories only 3.4% below average, the market appears balanced rather than tight. Unless geopolitical tensions flare, expect prices to reflect this comfortable supply situation—it's the math, not the mayhem!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$67.52
$1.88
WTI:
$62.84
$1.79
Spread:
$4.68
(Brent premium of $4.68)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,146
Weekly Change:
2,386
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$62.81
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.75
MA(20): $62.68
Current Price is 62.81, 9 day MA 63.75, 20 day MA 62.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.1076
Signal: 1.2713
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.61
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.61 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 224,886
Avg (20d): 357,443
Ratio: 0.63
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 42.11
%D: 52.71
Stochastic %K: 42.11, %D: 52.71. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 30.03
+DI: 19.88
-DI: 15.3
ADX: 30.03 (+DI: 19.88, -DI: 15.3). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -57.89
Williams %R: -57.89 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.38
Middle: 62.68
Lower: 58.98
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.38, Middle: 62.68, Lower: 58.98
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13713.0 | 13215.0 | 13478.0 | 13031.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6805.0 | 6201.0 | 6915.0 | 6337.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3739.0 | 4047.0 | 4331.0 | 3800.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16000.0 | 16029.0 | 15349.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3066.0 | 2154.0 | 2584.0 | 2536.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 428829.0 | 420299.0 | 423790.0 | 446234.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1689065.0 | 1690785.0 | 1605706.0 | 1609314.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 259058.0 | 257898.0 | 251088.0 | 245768.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124665.0 | 127368.0 | 118480.0 | 121170.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $67.52, change $-1.88. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $62.84, change $-1.79. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.68 (Brent premium of $4.68). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$67.52
1.88
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$62.84
1.79
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.68
Brent premium of $4.68
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also declined by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation in December, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook. Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US growth forecast: 2.1% for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone growth forecast: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan growth forecast: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China growth forecast: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India growth forecast: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil growth forecast: 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia growth forecast: 1.3% for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- OECD demand growth forecast: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand growth forecast: +1.2 mb/d
- In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production in 2026 is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers.
- Non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2027: +0.6 mb/d
- DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids outlook: +0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, to average about 42.83 mb/d
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December following a sharp upward trend in previous months.
- Decline attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels
- Seasonal demand-side pressures impacted margins
- In Southeast Asia, rising domestic supplies and firm product availability from the Middle East weighed on profitability
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains seen since mid-year.
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market saw further upward momentum with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports were broadly unchanged at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe crude imports increased, while product imports declined
- Japan’s crude imports averaged 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand
- China’s crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m
- India’s crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb.
- Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.2 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap, with world demand for 2026 at 106.5 mb/d and non-DoC supply at 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d. This gap highlights the need for strategic production decisions moving forward to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-10
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,070,538 contracts (-20,776)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,146 contracts (3.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,386 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 168,124 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,990 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
54
Last Updated:
2026-02-13 23:54:27
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.88
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
0.06 (0.06%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.38%)
SP500
6836.17
Daily:
3.41 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-128.65 (-1.85%)
VIX
20.6
Daily:
-0.22 (-1.06%)
Weekly:
3.24 (18.66%)
GOLD
5063.8
Daily:
140.1 (2.85%)
Weekly:
12.9 (0.26%)
COPPER
5.79
Daily:
0.02 (0.29%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-2.64%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$62.81
Closest Support:
$62.09
1.15% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
1.93% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$62.84
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-13 23:54:29
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.11%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | $62.77 | $60.0 | $65.55 |
| 2026-02-14 | $62.75 | $59.97 | $65.53 |
| 2026-02-15 | $62.66 | $59.89 | $65.44 |
| 2026-02-16 | $62.83 | $60.05 | $65.6 |
| 2026-02-17 | $62.89 | $60.12 | $65.67 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2026-02-13), reaching $62.77.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-13 and 2026-02-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment, particularly influenced by a $2.72 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket to $61.74/b. The $3.76/b Brent-WTI spread suggests a neutral outlook in terms of price divergence, providing potential risks for traders focusing on arbitrage opportunities.
With the market showing signs of weakness and a backwardation scenario, traders should be cautious about short-term volatility. Key support levels are forming around $57.00/b for WTI, while $60.00/b may serve as a resistance level. Traders should monitor CFTC positioning, as managed money positions are now bullish and strengthening, indicating potential upward momentum.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of a balanced supply-demand outlook, with a forecasted demand for DoC crude projected to reach 43.6 mb/d in 2027. This indicates a bullish trend for future production planning. However, the decline in refining margins across regions may necessitate adjustments in operational strategies.
Given the 8.1 mb rise in crude inventories, producers may want to implement hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility. Monitoring geopolitical developments and global economic growth forecasts will be crucial for optimizing production levels and ensuring profitability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, as the $61.74/b OPEC Reference Basket price reflects ongoing volatility in the crude oil market. With bearish sentiment prevailing, procurement strategies may need to adapt to mitigate risks associated with price increases.
Additionally, the rise in crude inventories and a stable supply from major producers suggest a reliable supply chain for the near term. However, consumers should remain vigilant regarding geopolitical risks that could disrupt supply reliability and affect procurement decisions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by weak demand signals and declining refining margins. The balance of supply and demand remains delicate, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, indicating a potential slowdown in market recovery.
Positioning data reveals that managed money is currently bullish and strengthening, suggesting a possible shift in market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor these indicators alongside geopolitical developments and economic growth forecasts to identify potential shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: The insights provided here are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.